C4Countdown vs Apterous
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C4Countdown vs Apterous
Following the fun and success of the C4Countdown vs old c4countdown game, you are cordially invited to participate in this new game: c4countdown vs apterous. The aim is to predict on which date (if any) the number of games on apterous will exceed the number posts on C4Countdown. The prize is the same Mars bar that I have been handing out for several years now.
My entry is: 17 February.
My entry is: 17 February.
- Kai Laddiman
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Kinda obvious really. (12th March)
16/10/2007 - Episode 4460
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
4th July
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
18th of February.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
I agree with Kai that it will be in March, but I think it will be earlier than the 12th.Kai Laddiman wrote:Kinda obvious really. (12th March)
My guess would be the 3rd (50 days from today).
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
March 9th
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
March 8th, for no better reason than it's Gyles Brandreth's birthday (and also my mum's).
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
March 23rd.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Since my fairly random and slightly disturbing success on the other one, I'm not sure I can enter this. Because I would surely be right, and two in a row like that would probably convince me that I'm like Jesus and walk on water and stuff, and that's never a good idea.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Behold!
(see the next one down - I don't want to clog up the thread with countless graphs)
I shall make my prediction once I've done some actual work and thrown some statistics at this bee-hatch.
edit: Obviously the x-axis is wrong, but I'm currently fiddling to make a better, more exciting graph, so watch this space...
(see the next one down - I don't want to clog up the thread with countless graphs)
I shall make my prediction once I've done some actual work and thrown some statistics at this bee-hatch.
edit: Obviously the x-axis is wrong, but I'm currently fiddling to make a better, more exciting graph, so watch this space...
Last edited by Michael Wallace on Tue Jan 13, 2009 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- tonywarren
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
end of January & couldn't you splash out for a new mars bar. A silver cup can stand being the same and passed around, but a mars bar could become well mankified
Who says Morris dancing ain't cool...
- Michael Wallace
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
So I tried adding some stuff to the graph, to see if there were any exciting patterns.
The first purple line is the time that Countdown was off air during the summer (26/07 to 24/08) - check out the levelling off you might expect.
The second purple line is the period Charlie was (first) on air (15/10 to 24/10).
The circle is Christmas day (I'd hypothesised that the slight, short, levelling off you can see in both curves a little to the left was Christmas, but that seems unlikely now.
If people could think of any other important points to plot that may be associated with postage/apterous playing that'd be cool. I might add when finals/CoC filming happened, actually.
edit: I've now added signups data - it's scaled (by a factor of 33.78 at the moment - I'll look to getting that put on the graph somewhere, since it'll change as new data come in). Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?
The first purple line is the time that Countdown was off air during the summer (26/07 to 24/08) - check out the levelling off you might expect.
The second purple line is the period Charlie was (first) on air (15/10 to 24/10).
The circle is Christmas day (I'd hypothesised that the slight, short, levelling off you can see in both curves a little to the left was Christmas, but that seems unlikely now.
If people could think of any other important points to plot that may be associated with postage/apterous playing that'd be cool. I might add when finals/CoC filming happened, actually.
edit: I've now added signups data - it's scaled (by a factor of 33.78 at the moment - I'll look to getting that put on the graph somewhere, since it'll change as new data come in). Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?
- Charlie Reams
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
The particularly heartening thing is that, not only is there a huge leap following my debut episode, but also the trend settles back to a much higher rate than before. This place is really growing.Michael Wallace wrote:Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Is it me or is there also an increase when I was on?Michael Wallace wrote:Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?
16/10/2007 - Episode 4460
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that. Having a game of Apterous generally takes much longer than making a post, and there are people here who make posts almost every minute. I don't think there will ever be a convergence point.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Feb 14th. I predict a mass lonely nerd apto-fuck orgy that day (not including me obviously)
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Using my own highly scientific formula, I concur:Richard Brittain wrote:You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that. Having a game of Apterous generally takes much longer than making a post, and there are people here who make posts almost every minute. I don't think there will ever be a convergence point.
Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts
Apterous games feat. Kirk Bevins approx = Number of posts moaning that Apterous is down
Apterous games feat. Paul Howe approx = Number of posts made by Charlie Reams informing everyone that Apterous is down/up/shaking it all about
Daily Duel games approx = Number of posts commenting on strangeness of new set design, whereby contestants now check each others workings, and whether this was an accidental design fault
Apterous games feat. all others LESS THAN Number of posts made by Jason Larsen, let alone other members
Flawless logic.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.Dan Vanniasingham wrote:Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
No, cheating in the duel isn't funny. Cheating against bots is hilarious though.Joseph Bolas wrote:That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.Dan Vanniasingham wrote:Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.
But to revise my theory a touch, Aptostats have you down as playing 20 games against bots since 23:35 on the 9th, approx 4 days ago.
C4Countdown stats have your current posting rate at approx 5.68 posts per day i.e. more than 20 in 4 days. If I continue half-heartedly winding you up - this will increase.
Ergo, apterous will never catch up. Richard Brittain speaks The Truth.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Who said anything about "per day"?Richard Brittain wrote:You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that.
- Charlie Reams
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Maybe I missed the joke but, since C4C pre-dates Apterous by about 6 months, Apterous certainly needs more games per day than C4C has posts if the lines are ever to cross.Phil Reynolds wrote:Who said anything about "per day"?Richard Brittain wrote:You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long just to get your rating up by a point. But if you're gonna cheat, why not crank it up a notch and take down Prime? Or at least Caesar? It makes no sense!!!Joseph Bolas wrote:That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.Dan Vanniasingham wrote:Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
These are not pleasant imagesJunaid Mubeen wrote:I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long
Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Nope, this graph might actually have some benefit to the real world. Albeit, the Countdown world.Michael Wallace wrote:These are not pleasant imagesJunaid Mubeen wrote:I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long
Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Don't confuse me with facts.Charlie Reams wrote:Maybe I missed the joke but, since C4C pre-dates Apterous by about 6 months, Apterous certainly needs more games per day than C4C has posts if the lines are ever to cross.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
A graph can never be a bad thingMichael Wallace wrote:These are not pleasant imagesJunaid Mubeen wrote:I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long
Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?
FACT
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Well, I probably play the largest percentage of apterous games and from Monday I'll be back to playing my usual obsessive amount
- Kai Laddiman
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
I agree, it's just that I might as well try for the Mars bar.Dan Vanniasingham wrote:Ergo, apterous will never catch up.
16/10/2007 - Episode 4460
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
6th of December, cos it's a nice day.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Apterous might overtake and get reovertaken and overtake again (and not even having to count get reovertaken immediately afterwards because there is a flurry of posts, but a while later). Would we get extra points for predicting that correctly?
- Kai Laddiman
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Looks like this possibility has been ruled out.Dinos Sfyris wrote:Feb 14th. I predict a mass lonely nerd apto-fuck orgy that day (not including me obviously)
16/10/2007 - Episode 4460
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Bump,
Looks like it will be in the next couple of weeks
Looks like it will be in the next couple of weeks
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Not quite sure when but it has now been done
- Kai Laddiman
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
POW! I win!
16/10/2007 - Episode 4460
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
Dinos Sfyris 76 - 78 Dorian Lidell
Proof that even idiots can get well and truly mainwheeled.
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
A virtual Mars Bar is winging its way to you as we speak.Kai Laddiman wrote:POW! I win!
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
With Apterous down for an extended period as it is now, this prediction becomes more likely (though I'm not sure whether the gap is already too large for this to happen).Gavin Chipper wrote:Apterous might overtake and get reovertaken and overtake again (and not even having to count get reovertaken immediately afterwards because there is a flurry of posts, but a while later). Would we get extra points for predicting that correctly?
What's the next milestone achieveable?
- Charlie Reams
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Re: C4Countdown vs Apterous
Time when total number of C4C posts is exceeded by total number of games played by Jimmy Gough? Must be fairly imminent.Neil Zussman wrote: What's the next milestone achieveable?