Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2024 7:34 pm
If you remember back in 1997 the Sun backed B Liar and that was the final hurdle overcome.
It shows you how bad the Tories are when Kier Starmer who probably isn't even the 5th best Labour politician is going to outdo 1997.
It's true to say this mirrors Brexit in so much as people are voting against the status quo rather than what is being offered instead.
Though I'm guessing it will be closer to 13% than 3%
Anyway , Gev , what do you think about the Fib Dems manifesto ?
These nicknames are so original, it must have taken you ages to think them up.
Well I've been using them for over 10 years so not new and not original probably stolen from Private Eye.
Yes I'm puerile there was a documentary on Mrs T and I was shouting Maggie Thatcher Milk Snatcher.
That's at least 50 years old.
Haven't come up with a decent one for Rishi Sunak.
Though he has imposter syndrome .
Looking forward to see the ITV interview that was so important he missed some of the D Day commemorations
This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.
Mark Deeks wrote:Callum Todd looks like a young Ted Bundy.
Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm
This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.
It gets better with Rishi , he isn't living in the real world
Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm
This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.
What's the point in having them on at all when all they do is just make fake promises and dodge questions? You could ask them whether they preferred custard creams or chocolate digestives and they'd go on a spiel about how they were planning on building 5,000 more biscuit factories and recruiting 20,000 more factory workers instead of giving an actual answer.
Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm
This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.
It gets better with Rishi , he isn't living in the real world
"Rishi, according to the polls you’re wildly unpopular, can you tell us something that might make people like you more?"
Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:50 am
Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto
For a minute I thought you meant compulsory retirement at 80 in general. But no, just from the House of Lords. I don't think that explicit ageism is a good policy. There are better ways to reform/abolish the House of Lords without faffing about at the edges anyway.
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:50 am
Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto
For a minute I thought you meant compulsory retirement at 80 in general. But no, just from the House of Lords. I don't think that explicit ageism is a good policy. There are better ways to reform/abolish the House of Lords without faffing about at the edges anyway.
It might take a few years but stopping new Lords entering and letting the others die off might be the best way for reform.
Groundhog Day tonight with ITV recreating the 7 party debate with the same people .
Cant see anything new to come out of it.
Though I would say in the lifetime of the next parliament I can see Penny and Angela sparring at PMQs
Notable Tories and their current odds on keeping their seat (B365), from safest to deadest...... those in bold are currently odds against being an MP in a couple of weeks. It could be carnage!!!!
1/9 Kemi Badenoch
1/7 Priti Patel
1/7 Tom Tugendhat
1/7 Damian Hinds
1/6 Mims Davies
2/11 Stephen Barclay
2/9 Victoria Atkins
1/4 Claire Coutinho
3/10 Kit Malthouse
4/11 Rishi Sunak
4/11 Michael Fabricant
2/5 Gavin Williamson
2/5 Oliver Dowden
2/5 David Davis
4/9 James Cleverly
1/2 Suella Braverman
1/2 Michelle Donelan
8/13 Liz Truss
4/6 Douglas Ross
5/6 Richard Holden
1/1 Lucy Frazer 5/4 Robert Jenrick
6/4 Esther McVey
7/4 Penny Mordaunt
7/4 Therese Coffey
7/4 Chris Philp
2/1 Gillian Keegan
12/5 Damian Green
5/2 Iain Duncan Smith
3/1 Peter Bottomley (MP since 1975)
3/1 David Davies (Welsh secretary)
10/3 Jeremy Hunt
10/3 Jacob Rees-Mogg
10/3 Liam Fox
7/2 Theresa Villiers
9/2 Tobias Ellwood
5/1 Johnny Mercer
5/1 Tom Pursglove
6/1 Grant Shapps
7/1 Robert Buckland
7/1 Stephen Crabb
18/1 Jake Berry
Chemical Badenoch is in a constituency adjacent to mine (which has James Cleverly). A very Tory area for some reason. It's pretty extraordinary though that given the existence of Enoch Powell, Kemi is still known as the Bad-enoch.
A small part of me is upset that England. are winning as my favourite joke about England players being told not to vote to save further embarrassment as they are unlikely to find the box let alone put a cross in it .
But England MEN only win trophies under a Labour government
Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am
Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.
Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.
Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.
Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.
Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am
Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.
Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.
Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.
Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.
Labour have done badly , really !!,Nearly 10 million votes well over 3 times as many seats as The Tories.
I think Sunak could be a child killer and the Tories would still get 100 seats
The biggest surprise is over 4 million votes for the Reform Party more than the Lib dems.
So be careful what you wish for with regards AV or PR
If Labour had a charismatic leader like Tony Blair (stopped the name calling by popular demand ) just imagine how many seats they would have had
Felt a little bit sorry for Penny Mordant as amshe comes across as a lot better than most of the others though she probably didn't do herself any favours shouting over Angela Rayner during the debates.
Great to see Reece - Mogg lose his seat in this year's Portillo moment
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am
Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.
Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.
Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.
Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.
BBC now have Labour on 33.7% compared to 32.2% when they were "completely unelectable" in 2019. It's not very different. And 40.0% in 2017 of course.
And also this is the biggest gap ever between the share of seats and share of votes for the winning party. There's no real legitimacy for this landside. Just a symptom of our broken electoral system.
And also this is the biggest gap ever between the share of seats and share of votes for the winning party. There's no real legitimacy for this landside. Just a symptom of our broken electoral system.
It's always likely to happen in constituencies with a high percentage of Muslim voters.
We've had the referendum on AV and the country said no.
Wait 12 years until reform are either the opposition or , gulp ,
The winning party and you might have a chance for another referendum
If that sounds unlikely , remember it was 20 years after the labour party was formed before it got into government.
AV was always a miserable little compromise and is nothing to do with proportional representation really. Also 2011 is a long time ago now, and loudmouth Farage might do one good thing in his life and bang on about this issue now he's an MP.
Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am
Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.
Oh yeah I've heard the Tories are shit, and given the shitting on Sunak over social media, I think he's not the best either. Of course I know nothing about Starmer other than his plans and a little of his upbringing soooooo
Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am
Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.
Oh yeah I've heard the Tories are shit, and given the shitting on Sunak over social media, I think he's not the best either. Of course I know nothing about Starmer other than his plans and a little of his upbringing soooooo
Yeah, his upbringing. His dad was a tool-maker, or so I've heard.
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:39 pm
AV was always a miserable little compromise and is nothing to do with proportional representation really. Also 2011 is a long time ago now, and loudmouth Farage might do one good thing in his life and bang on about this issue now he's an MP.
Maybe in 7 years we can go again as its a once in a generational thing .....I think
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:01 am
I think The Lib dems were the only party to get the same number of seats as their share of the vote
The vote share analysis is really interesting, and doesn't look great for Labour. Their vote share only just makes the second quartile in a ranking of their performance in all UK general elections on record. And while I'm not a fan of Reform, it's mad that they received more votes than the Lib Dems but only 7% of the seats they got.
I'm also not a fan of Jeremy Corbyn, but factoring in the low turnout backs up some of Gavin's points above too: Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party received more votes in both 2017 and 2019 (!) than Keir Starmer's Labour Party did in 2024.
Mark Deeks wrote:Callum Todd looks like a young Ted Bundy.
Yeah PR makes sense. How does it work though in terms of people voting for their MP? There would have to be some areas where the candidate with the majority vote was not the MP allocated?
There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am
There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?
I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am
There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?
I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.
Yeah that's why Starmer should own it now and get it done!
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am
There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?
I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.
The 2011 referendum was not for proportional representation, so it was for a different thing. Also it was seen as a Lib Dem policy and they'd already lost credibility and people's trust over the tuition fees debacle. And Nick Clegg had called AV a miserable little compromise, doing further damage to it.
And as you say, Farage is all for PR, and hate him or hate him, he has a lot of influence. I would say most "progressive" people are for PR anyway, and Farage could persuade a lot of the rest of people. He's a man of the people you know!
