Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:10 pm

The daily spoilers threads work really well, but it isn't the easiest format to have ongoing discussions about more general things like how the series is shaping up in terms of how the seedings are looking, apterites who are coming up as future challengers, when it nears finals time our predictions (as the setting up of a finals prediction tab is itself a spoiler - (see http://www.c4countdown.co.uk/viewtopic. ... 94#p166751 ) etc etc.

So, I thought I'd set up a thread for such discussions to see how it works out

I'll also do a bit of statistical analysis once anyone octos, or loses after getting 4 wins or more.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:36 pm

So, Starting with Tom Chafer-Cook.

Wins: 8
Points: 896
Current seed: 1
Total Maximums: 82/120 (68%)

Letters Maximums: 54/80 (68%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 12
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 7
Badged words: Furnaces, Mixture, Prolate, Infernal, Petaloid, Warfare, Paltrier, Lovable, Varioles, Ugliness, Veinous, Pongees
Medalled words: Onsteads, Queuing, Biowars, Macrolide, Aerostats, Traineaus, Crinoids

Numbers Maximums: 23/32 (72%)
6 small: 2/3
1 large: 18/24 (75%)
2 large: 1/3
3 large: 1/1
4 large: 1/1

Conundrum Maximums: 5/8
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 2, Unsolved 1

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Noel Mc · Post by **Noel Mc** » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:43 am

Tom was awesome. Not overly surprised that his 7th game was close, the strength of his opponent being one factor, but also that it was his fifth episode in a row, probably filmed at about 8pm at night!

I'm up on the 15th of August, but 24 episodes before that!

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:13 pm

Did anyone notice the rather monumental coincidence related to the targets that CECIL came up with today?

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:13 pm Did anyone notice the rather monumental coincidence related to the targets that CECIL came up with today?

I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki page

http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_6622 - how on earth did you spot this?

I make it a one in 653,188,856,401 chance of that happening

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:10 am

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki page http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_6622 - how on earth did you spot this?

Just a weird déjà vu thing -- I thought CECIL had been generating a lot of high targets recently, knew I had seen 986 as a target earlier in the week, and then when the 910 came up in the last game I recalled that Tom's last numbers game was also a 910 that wasn't solved by either of the players (and which I did with a final step of 130*7 both times).

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am I make it a one in 653,188,856,401 chance of that happening

Agreed, far too improbable to happen by chance within a lifetime. I suspect it was a bug, whereby the file or memory address that has the targets in it got reused somehow. I wonder if tomorrow's targets will match Tuesday's, too.

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:05 pm

I didn't notice it, but did notice that 228 had come up a few times recently - it came up in a Cats game recently I think too.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:25 pm

Shabir Alidina

Wins: 4
Points: 364
Current seed: 2
Total Maximums: 13/75 (17%)

Letters Maximums: 3/50 (6%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 0
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: N/A

Numbers Maximums: 9/20 (45%)
6 small: 1/2
1 large: 4/12 (33%)
2 large: 4/6
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 1/5
Conundrum record: Won 1, Lost 1, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Unlikely to make the finals however - 4 wins/364 points wouldn't have made the finals in a "full length" series since series 60.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:10 am

The stats for the enigmatic John Cowen (coincidentally I just missed "enigmatic" as a conundrum on Apterous

)

Wins: 8
Points: 799
Current seed: 2
Total Maximums: 56/120 (47%)

Letters Maximums: 36/80 (45%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 4
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 4
Badged words: Uncoiled, Uxorial, Ominous, Quintets
Medalled words: Mortalise, Countable, Flossing, Gorditas

Numbers Maximums: 14/32 (44%)
6 small: 7/17 (41%)
1 large: 3/6
2 large: 4/9
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 6/8
Conundrum record: Won 6, Lost 0, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Quick comparison to current no1 seed Tom Chafer-Cook:

Letters maxes - TCC 68%, JC 45%
Numbers maxes - TCC 72%, JC 44%

John's total of 799 should typically see him somewhere between the 3rd and 6th seed position for the finals. Reckon he could have easily been 50+ points more if he went 1 large on all numbers games rather than 6s, so may end up artificially a bit lower seeded than he perhaps should be.

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:52 pm

My fave John Cowen declarations:-
OMINOUS
MORTALISE
HEARSE.

All we need now is for him to get something like GHOULISH in the series finals to cap things off nicely.

Noel Mc · Post by **Noel Mc** » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:36 pm

I wonder if he will change tactic for the numbers come the final?

Elliott Mellor · Post by **Elliott Mellor** » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:17 pm

Noel Mc wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:36 pm I wonder if he will change tactic for the numbers come the final?

He seems to either get it spot on or not get anywhere close generally, and he doesn't seem to want to deviate so I doubt it. His factorising is very good, so for something like 689 he'll see 53*13, but when it's something like 827 which is prime, he gets way too flustered trying to get it exactly rather than getting somewhere close as insurance. I wonder if he'd have got it had the target been 828, which has a lot of factors. I'd say probably.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:42 pm

Summary for Michael "Cov" Pfeffer.........

Wins: 8
Points: 770
Current seed: 3
Total Maximums: 44/120 (37%)

Letters Maximums: 23/80 (29%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 3
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: Trundled, Lactated, Upvoting

Numbers Maximums: 17/32 (53%)
6 small: 0/3
1 large: 11/16 (69%)
2 large: 4/7
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 2/6

Conundrum Maximums: 4/8
Conundrum record: Won 4, Lost 2, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

3 octochamps now with 88 prelims still left - could we be on for over 8 octochamps this series........?

Michael seemed like a good guy and obviously capable of producing performances to match (10 maxes in his 4th game a particularly notable performance), but was very inconsistent - his last game was particularly a bit of a stinker!

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:22 pm

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:42 pm3 octochamps now with 88 prelims still left - could we be on for over 8 octochamps this series........?

I've been hoping for this since series 47. Fingers crossed.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:01 pm

Summary for Noel McIlvenny.........

Wins: 8
Points: 793
Current seed: 3
Total Maximums: 52/120 (43%)

Letters Maximums: 27/80 (34%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 2
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 3
Badged words: Boutade, Wayside
Medalled words: Upsides, Outfeed, Poleman

Numbers Maximums: 21/32 (66%)
6 small: 0/0
1 large: 7/11 (64%)
2 large: 3/5
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 11/16 (69%)

Conundrum Maximums: 4/8
Conundrum record: Won 4, Lost 1, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

4L obviously the stand-out weapon - will be a danger against anyone if he can keep it close on the letters.

4 octochamps now with only 38 episodes gone - 77 prelims still remain.........

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm

And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?

Graeme Cole · Post by **Graeme Cole** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:34 pm

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?

I hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:57 pm

Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:34 pm
Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?
I hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.

It looks like they have been overskipping it.

Anyway, we now have a massive four octochamps after just 38 episodes. Looking at the wiki, it seems that there will be 115 preliminaries altogether, so 77 left. Plenty of time for that ninth octochamp.

The closest we ever got was in series 47, when we had eight octochamps. In that series, it seems as though there were 117 preliminaries, so very similar to this series. At this stage in the series, we had had three octochamps, and hadn't yet started the run of the fourth, so we are on track.

Dan Byrom · Post by **Dan Byrom** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:43 pm

If it were to happen, I'd feel very sorry for the 9th seed!

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:27 am

Summary for Nikki Saarsteiner.........

Wins: 4
Points: 392
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 20/75 (27%)

Letters Maximums: 12/50 (24%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 3
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 2
Badged words: Bedroom, Stumpier, Teasers
Medalled words: Nuttiest, Reliner

Numbers Maximums: 6/20 (30%)
6 small: 1/2
1 large: 2/5
2 large: 2/5
3 large: 1/5
4 large: 0/3

Conundrum Maximums: 2/5
Conundrum record: Won 2, Lost 2, Unsolved 1

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

With 68 prelims left, pretty much no chance to make the finals unfortunately, but she gave a very good account of herself and it's always good to see someone who made the effort of putting in a decent bit of practice doing well. She definitely should be proud of herself

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am

68 prelims = at least 18 three-time winners... if there is a God!
The S77 finals needs Nikki in it!

We've already had enough Octochamps this series.
Time for a slow down...

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:20 am

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am 68 prelims = at least 18 three-time winners... if there is a God!
The S77 finals needs Nikki in it!

I think she'll just be cannon fodder for the top players. It will be ugly.

We've already had enough Octochamps this series.
Time for a slow down...

Nah, we need nine!

Bradley Horrocks · Post by **Bradley Horrocks** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:08 am

I will be on 2 months from today, the last of Gyles' episodes. It will also be Rachel's 1999th episode!

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:03 am

I think we're slowly moving away from the possibility of nine octochamps. We've had a few octochamp contenders recently, but they've all fallen away. We've had a long gap now.

Bradley Horrocks · Post by **Bradley Horrocks** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:04 am

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:03 am I think we're slowly moving away from the possibility of nine octochamps. We've had a few octochamp contenders recently, but they've all fallen away. We've had a long gap now.

Possibly, the potential ones have always found someone stronger in their run. It'll require some hard and fast octochamps now like John-Michael's back to back crownings.

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am

Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.

I guess someone is going to have to do the stats for Ben L's run now.

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:06 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am I guess someone is going to have to do the stats for Ben L's run now.

Hopefully!
Martin's post match analysis of contestant runs is a highlight of c4c.

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:54 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.

I think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:08 am

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:54 am
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.
I think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!

Indeed, he confirmed this to me shortly after my original post. Eoin is quite a strong player and if he wins it will again dilute the frequency of octochamps in S77. But on the plus side, if Phil is still going Eoin will appear during his seventh game and could take him to a high-scoring match / crucial, and it's been a while since we had a high-quality match so late in an incumbent champion's run (usually, by the time the seventh game comes, the prospective octochamp has just been dispatching the challengers handily). Again, though, the results of the matches remain to be seen.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:29 pm

Sorry for the delay! Haven't been up to date with episodes for a couple of weeks so was avoiding the Wiki like the plague to swerve spoilers!

Summary for Ben Leyburn.........

Wins: 5
Points:558
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 40/90 (44%)

Letters Maximums: 20/60 (33%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 3
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 1
Badged words: Wearier, Sanitize, Rehoming
Medalled words: Outweighs

Numbers Maximums: 15/24 (63%)
6 small: 0/1
1 large: 7/13 (54%)
2 large: 8/9
3 large: 0/1
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 5/6
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 1, Unsolved 0

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Very similar stats to Noel (albeit with "easier" number selections) - pretty unlucky to run into Phil's 9 maxer in his 6th game. Unlikely to make the finals though

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:41 pm

Summary for Phil Peel.........

Wins: 6
Points: 609
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 38/105 (36%)

Letters Maximums: 17/70 (24%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 1
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 0
Badged words: Rehoming
Medalled words: N/A

Numbers Maximums: 19/28 (68%)
6 small: 1/1
1 large: 9/13 (69%)
2 large: 9/13 (69%)
3 large: 0/1
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 2/7
Conundrum record: Won 2, Lost 1, Unsolved 4

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

5th seed with 50+ prelims to go - I would say slightly more likely than not that he will just miss out on making the finals at this stage.

68% maxes on numbers is the second best we have seen this series so far from those that have one 4+ games (1st = Tom Chafer-Cook (72%))

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:49 pm

Summary for Eoin Jackson.........

Wins: 8
Points: 778
Current seed: 4
Total Maximums: 59/120 (49%)

Letters Maximums: 28/80 (35%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 2
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 8
Badged words: Alienor, Circuit
Medalled words: Toodles, Assumes, Defamous, Satanise, Firepit, Haplite, Assures, Rejection

Numbers Maximums: 23/32 (72%)
6 small: 2/5
1 large: 8/9
2 large: 13/17 (76%)
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/1

Conundrum Maximums: 3/8
Conundrum record: Won 3, Lost 3, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Currently 4th seed, but 2nd so far this series (for those that have won 4+ games) in terms of total maximums (behind Tom Chafer-Cook), joint first in terms of numbers performance with Tom, and 3rd in terms of letters maximums behind Tom and John Cowen.

5 octochamps now with 47 prelims remaining......

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:08 pm

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:49 pm Summary for Eoin Jackson.........

I've been looking forward to this for months now.
It reads a little better than I had anticipated.
I love that SATANISE gets a medal.
We already had HEARSE for 6, OMINOUS for 7, and MORTALISE for 9, so S77 needed a good 8 to complete that set.
I have your back, JC!

Elliott Mellor · Post by **Elliott Mellor** » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:03 pm

Especial congrats on being an octochamp in a future series too as your signature says!

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:26 pm

Not going to spell it out for you...
But each of these numbers is relevant to my CD run.

77, 8, and 778.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:17 am

(Late) summary for Alex Smith.........

Wins: 4
Points: 400
Current seed: 8
Total Maximums: 26/75 (35%)

Letters Maximums: 13/50 (26%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 1
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: Banshees

Numbers Maximums: 11/20 (55%)
6 small: 1/2
1 large: 9/16 (56%)
2 large: N/A
3 large: N/A
4 large: 1/2

Conundrum Maximums: 2/5
Conundrum record: Won 2, Lost 0, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:57 pm

Summary for James Kennedy (wonder if his middle initial is F? Topical if it is!).........

Wins: 8
Points: 736
Current seed: 6
Total Maximums: 44/120 (37%)

Letters Maximums: 26/80 (33%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 0
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: N/A

Numbers Maximums: 13/32 (41%)
6 small: 1/3
1 large: 10/26 (38%)
2 large: 1/2
3 large: 1/1
4 large: N/A

Conundrum Maximums: 5/8
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 0, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

So, that's 6 octochamps with 32 prelims to go............ Nick seemed pretty confident James would be back for the finals, but will he?

Well......

Series 76 had 3 x octochamps in the last 31 prelims (though one of those totalled less than James)
Series 75 had 1 x octochamp in the last 32 prelims
Series 74 had 3 x octochamps in the last 36 prelims
Series 73 had 1 x octochamp in the last 32 prelims
Series 72 had 2 x octochamps in the last 34 prelims
Prior to series 72, there hasn't been a series in the 15 round era that has yielded more than 2 octochamps in the final 32 prelims of a series.

Tom S · Post by **Tom S** » Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:17 am

So, that's 6 octochamps with 32 prelims to go............ Nick seemed pretty confident James would be back for the finals, but will he?

Well......

Series 76 had 3 x octochamps in the last 31 prelims (though one of those totalled less than James)
Series 75 had 1 x octochamp in the last 32 prelims
Series 74 had 3 x octochamps in the last 36 prelims
Series 73 had 1 x octochamp in the last 32 prelims
Series 72 had 2 x octochamps in the last 34 prelims
Prior to series 72, there hasn't been a series in the 15 round era that has yielded more than 2 octochamps in the final 32 prelims of a series.
[/quote]

I think he will, personally, but there are better players, such as Ben who will sacrifice as a result of James' octochampdom.

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:27 pm

Mildly interesting fact regarding James Kennedy's lack of badged and medalled words: his only 9 and arguably most impressive spot of COUNTABLE would have received both honours, had it not been claimed earlier this series by a certain John Cowen...

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:22 pm

Summary for James Riddell (would be shocked if his nickname wasn't "Jimmy Riddle" at school).........

Wins: 6
Points: 558
Current seed: 8
Total Maximums: 40/105 (38%)

Letters Maximums: 30/70 (43%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 4
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 1
Badged words: Bipedal, Carpool, Shandies, Earwigs
Medalled words: Billeted

Numbers Maximums: 6/28 (21%)
6 small: N/A
1 large: 3/13 (23%)
2 large: 3/14 (21%)
3 large: 0/1
4 large: N/A

Conundrum Maximums: 4/7
Conundrum record: Won 4, Lost 1, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

43% maximums on the letters is actually the 3rd best of anyone this series with 4+ wins behind TCC and John Cowen. Numbers stats though the worse we've seen by far. Very consistent with 7 maxes in his first game, and either 5 or 6 maxes in every over game, including his loss to Graeme Staples' 10-maxer.

Most surprising stat (to me anyway) from his run is that he is the first contestant ever to submit (according to the Wiki) EARWIGS..........

Currently number 8 seed with 22 prelims left. In the previous 25 series, only twice has someone have not surpassed 6 wins/558 points in the last 22 episodes of a series (series 61 and 73).

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:15 pm

Not sure if it's still too early to ask this question, even in a spoilerific thread, but for wiki purposes I'd like to know ahead of time:

For anyone who attended the finals or knows someone who did, were all of the top eight seeds of the series able to play, or were there people from the top eight who pulled out?

L'oisleatch McGraw · Post by **L'oisleatch McGraw** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:24 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:15 pm were all of the top eight seeds of the series able to play?

:::SPOILER:::
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Yes.
The #10 seed was also there as a back up in case of emergency, but he wasn't needed.
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Spoiler above ^^^^^

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:42 pm

Summary for Graeme Staples.........

Wins: 8
Points: 678
Current seed: 7
Total Maximums: 46/120 (38%)

Letters Maximums: 24/80 (30%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 1
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 3
Badged words: Maziest
Medalled words: Disallow, Deduces, Fervour

Numbers Maximums: 16/32 (50%)
6 small: N/A
1 large: 6/11 (55%)
2 large: 9/20 (45%)
3 large: N/A
4 large: 1/1

Conundrum Maximums: 6/8
Conundrum record: Won 6, Lost 1, Unsolved 1

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

With 15 prelims to go, is confirmed that we won't have more than 8 octochamps this series, and Graeme will either be the number 7 or 8 seed in the finals. Phil Peel sits on the bubble as current number 8 seed on 6 wins/609 points.

Bradley Horrocks · Post by **Bradley Horrocks** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:54 am

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:42 pm Summary for Graeme Staples.........

Wins: 8
Points: 678
Current seed: 7

678 is quite low for an Octochamp. I wondered if this might be the lowest in the new 15r era but I see James Slater has the record, scoring 672 last series. Not surprising that it’s lower since an average of just over 80 would probably not be enough against an above average player.

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:03 pm

Am soon off to Vancouver for Xmas again and will probably not be able to do wiki recaps for any days after Monday, 18 December (3rd quarter final) -- could somebody step in and polish off the Tuesday through Friday editions?

Cheers,
JC

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm

I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?

Tom S · Post by **Tom S** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:32 pm

Hmmm, sounds interesting. I would say yes, it would be unfair of the Countdown team to disallow that person a spot.

Graeme Cole · Post by **Graeme Cole** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:50 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?

No, I doubt they'd be allowed to play in the S78 finals. Them's the rules. Think of it from the point of view of the S78 finalists. Why should someone who plays in S78, and does enough to be #8 seed in the S78 finals, be deprived of their finals place by someone who failed to qualify in an earlier series?

Thomas Cappleman · Post by **Thomas Cappleman** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:21 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?

Why would they be allowed in series 78? They've got nothing to do with it at all. They would have played all their games in series 77, and failed to reach the finals, exactly the same as anyone else with 6 wins.

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:26 pm

Summary for Bradley Horrocks.........

Wins: 8
Points: 864

Final seed: 2
Total Maximums: 63/120 (53%)

Letters Maximums: 32/80 (40%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 4
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 7
Badged words: Outdance, Flukier, Outlearn, Reascend
Medalled words: Terindam, Anteater, Outseen, Pandeiro, Unnotable, Opalesced, Peineta

Numbers Maximums: 26/32 (81%)
6 small: 7/10 (70%)
1 large: 11/11 (100%)
2 large: 7/9
3 large: 0/1
4 large: 1/1

Conundrum Maximums: 5/8
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 0, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Martin Hurst · Post by **Martin Hurst** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:15 pm

Overall summary:

Code: Select all

			Wins	Points	Maxes
Tom Chafer-Cook		8	896	68%
Bradley Horrocks	8	864	53%
John Cowen		8	799	47%
Noel McIlvenny		8	793	43%
Eoin Jackson		8	778	49%
Michael Pfeffer		8	770	37%
James Kennedy		8	736	37%
Greame Staples		8	678	38%

Letters summary:

Code: Select all

			Letters Maxes	Badges	Medals
Tom Chafer-Cook		68%		12	7
Bradley Horrocks	40%		4	7
John Cowen		45%		4	4
Noel McIlvenny		34%		2	3
Eoin Jackson		35%		2	8
Michael Pfeffer		29%		0	3
James Kennedy		33%		0	0
Greame Staples		30%		1	3

Numbers summary:

Code: Select all

			Numbers Maxes	6s maxes	1l maxes	2l maxes	3l maxes	4l maxes
Tom Chafer-Cook		72%		2/3		18/24 (75%)	1/3		1/1		1/1
Bradley Horrocks	81%		7/10 (70%)	11/11 (100%)	7/9		0/1		1/1
John Cowen		44%		7/17 (41%)	3/6		4/9		0/0		0/0
Noel McIlvenny		66%		0/0		7/11 (64%)	3/5		0/0		11/16 (69%)
Eoin Jackson		72%		2/5		8/9		13/17 (76%)	0/0		0/1
Michael Pfeffer		53%		0/3		11/16 (69%)	4/7		0/0		2/6
James Kennedy		41%		1/3		10/26 (38%)	1/2		1/1		0/0
Greame Staples		50%		0/0		6/11 (55%)	9/20 (45%)	0/0		1/1

Conundrum summary:

Code: Select all

			Conundrums won		Conundrums lost 	Conundrums unsolved
Tom Chafer-Cook		5			2			1
Bradley Horrocks	5			0			3
John Cowen		6			0			2
Noel McIlvenny		4			1			3
Eoin Jackson		3			3			2
Michael Pfeffer		4			2			2
James Kennedy		5			0			3
Greame Staples		6			1			1

My predictions............

Quarter finals

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (8) Graeme Staples - Tom by 50 points
(2) Bradley Horrocks v (7) James Kennedy - Bradley by 30 points
(3) John Cowen v (6) Michael Pfeffer - John by 20 points
(4) Noel McIlvenny v (5) Eoin Jackson - could be a classic - I'll go with Noel on an unsolved crucial.

Semi finals

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (4) Noel McIlvenny - Tom by 30 points
(2) Bradley Horrocks v (3) John Cowen - battle of the 6 small with Bradley's stats dominance to show and win by 30 points

FINAL

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (2) Bradley Horrocks - Tom to prove to be just that little bit too good and to take it by 20 points.

Feel free to post your predictions/thoughts also

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:19 pm

Thomas Cappleman wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:21 pm
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
Why would they be allowed in series 78? They've got nothing to do with it at all. They would have played all their games in series 77, and failed to reach the finals, exactly the same as anyone else with 6 wins.

This has been discussed at length previously.

But there is a case for saying that anyone who starts their run with seven or fewer games left in the series is part of the next series. Otherwise it can lead to it being in a player's interest to throw a game under some circumstances.

Bradley Horrocks · Post by **Bradley Horrocks** » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:42 pm

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:26 pm Summary for Bradley Horrocks.........

I've been looking forward to this, cheers Martin

Tim Down · Post by **Tim Down** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:08 am

Yay, prediction time. I shall studiously avoid reading previous predictions in this thread for the next few minutes.

Quarters

Tom Chafer-Cook vs. Graeme Staples
1 vs. 8 is usually and obviously the easy prediction and this is no exception. Tom to win by 40.

Bradley Horrocks vs. James Kennedy
Bradley's all-round game will be too much for James. Bradley by 40.

John Cowen vs. Michael Pfeffer
John's letters should see him through. John by 20.

Noel McIlvenny vs. Eoin Jackson
This is the tough one. A lot could depend on how Noel's two 4L picks come out. It could go either way but I'll go for Noel by a slim margin (say 15 or less).

Semis

Tom Chafer-Cook vs. Noel McIlvenny
Tom will see off Noel by sheer weight of consistent letters excellence. Tom by 25.

Bradley Horrocks vs. John Cowen
Bradley edges John in all departments, especially given John's somewhat scattergun numbers performances. Bradley by 30.

Final

Tom Chafer-Cook vs. Bradley Horrocks
It should be a tight one. Tom's just more consistent on the letters while Bradley could do some damage on numbers. I think Tom'll do it, by 15 points.

Oh dear, I've picked everything that the seedings would predict. How dull of me.

Elliott Mellor · Post by **Elliott Mellor** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:50 am

My predictions........................

Quarter finals

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (8) Graeme Staples - Tom by 50-60 points
(2) Bradley Horrocks v (7) James Kennedy - Bradley by 30-40 points
(3) John Cowen v (6) Michael Pfeffer - John by 15-25 points
(4) Noel McIlvenny v (5) Eoin Jackson - Gonna go with Noel by 15-25 points

Semi finals

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (4) Noel McIlvenny - Tom by 25-35 points
(2) Bradley Horrocks v (3) John Cowen - Bradley by 15-25 points

Final

(1) Tom Chafer-Cook v (2) Bradley Horrocks - could be interesting if this happens - Tom's got the letters advantage, but Bradley's definitely hotter on the numbers. Who's to say we won't end up with a final like series 76 where the numbers effectively decide it? Regardless, Bradley's going to need some tricky numbers rounds realistically as it won't be easy to beat Tom on the letters. I'm gonna go for an upset and deviate and say Bradley to win by a narrow margin, say 5-15 points.

David Williams · Post by **David Williams** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:23 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pmAll spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?

The answer seems pretty obvious to me, but shouldn't the question be:-

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next seven games and loses the first heat of series 78, and seven wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, even though they wouldn't have qualified for the Series 77 finals?

Philip Peel · Post by **Philip Peel** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:25 am

I think Noel v Eoin is a very close one, but if I am looking for an upset I can see Michael causing John problems.

Zarte Siempre · Post by **Zarte Siempre** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:37 am

I love reading prediction threads when I've watched stuff in the studios

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:46 pm

Philip Peel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:25 am I think Noel v Eoin is a very close one, but if I am looking for an upset I can see Michael causing John problems.

Seeds 3 to 6 are very close on points, so I don't think any result involving these players would be that much of an upset. I think the first two are slightly clear though, so I'd predict them in the final, with Tom the slight favourite.

Johnny Canuck · Post by **Johnny Canuck** » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:24 pm

David Williams wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:23 am
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pmAll spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
The answer seems pretty obvious to me, but shouldn't the question be:-

All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next seven games and loses the first heat of series 78, and seven wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, even though they wouldn't have qualified for the Series 77 finals?

I don't see why not -- at the point when they carry over beyond the Series 77 finals, they become a Series 78 contestant.

Who will win series 77 of Countdown?