c4countdown

I just remembered about something which I saw last week, and was going to check out and post here and stuff. I was queuing at the till in the Supermarket when I saw packets of chewing gum which had a competition: "win a fiver - 1 in 10 chance!" clearly stated on the front. Given that the chewing gum cost less than 50p per pack, this seemed too good to be true, so I thought "I'll be interested to see what T&Cs they might use to wrigley out of this one" but clean forgot about it until now. Not even being able to remember which brand it was or anything, I did a quick Google search on "gum fiver one in ten chance" to find out more, and this article was top of the pile. Written by Michael Wallace!

So not only an incredible coincidence (I have calculated the odds in the region of 8 billion to one against this happening), but also proof that Raccoon boy is a bit of a selfish shit for not sharing this money making scheme with us. For shame.

What can I say, I don't want anyone muscling in on my scheme.

Actually, I told Facebook and I think MWM has given up his day job to make his fortune in chewing gum, but apparently we aren't Facebook friends so I guess that's your fault for hating me for being a gayer. Racist.

Pretty cool story though

Now that you've been exposed, how many packets of gum did you buy? 50 seems excessive when you might win with your first 5 attempts (okay, not likely but if my calculations are correct you're more likely than not to have won your quota of 5 at 47 packets). What form does the 1 in 10 game take? Is it more interesting than Red or Black?

Also, where do you buy Wrigley's gum for 30p? It was 46p in Asda I think where I noticed the competition.


ETA we are Facebook friends apparently. I just haven't looked at Facebook in about 5 months because I hate it.

Double ETA in the process of working some of this stuff out, I have somehow only just discovered that Excel has COMBIN and PERMUT worksheet functions (despite being my work's resident Excel expert). The number of times I've manually done these calculations (which includes remembering the formulae, double-checking, testing, sometimes jumping through all sorts of additional hoops to avoid overflows with large factorials)... d'oh.

Jon Corby wrote:Now that you've been exposed, how many packets of gum did you buy? 50 seems excessive when you might win with your first 5 attempts (okay, not likely but if my calculations are correct you're more likely than not to have won your quota of 5 at 47 packets). What form does the 1 in 10 game take? Is it more interesting than Red or Black?

Also, where do you buy Wrigley's gum for 30p? It was 46p in Asda I think where I noticed the competition.

There's a code inside the wrapper somewhere, which you enter on a website (along with your name, address and email), then they email you the next morning if you've won. One annoying factor (which wasn't really worth mentioning in the article) is that you can only enter once a day, so you can't get a load of codes and enter them all in one go to save time (hence my 2 minute a time assumption).

Individual packs were 30p in my local Morrisons, and I bought ten to start with since we needed some gum anyway (the offer is on multipacks too though, so it may be possible to save even more that way). It would probably be quite fun to work out the optimal number to buy, on the assumption that you can only do it once.

Michael Wallace wrote:Individual packs were 30p in my local Morrisons

...while today the local Morrison individual is packing 30 years. What a coincidence. And this is happening in the coincidences thread, which I guess makes it some sort of metacoincidence.

Michael Wallace wrote:There's a code inside the wrapper somewhere, which you enter on a website (along with your name, address and email)

How many have you entered, and how much have you won?

Phil Reynolds wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Individual packs were 30p in my local Morrisons

...while today the local Morrison individual is packing 30 years. What a coincidence. And this is happening in the coincidences thread, which I guess makes it some sort of metacoincidence.

I had to read that twice to realise what the hell you were going on about. Very good!

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:There's a code inside the wrapper somewhere, which you enter on a website (along with your name, address and email)

How many have you entered, and how much have you won?

4 entered, 1 win so far. It was my very first code that won, so they gave me the taste of victory before defeat after defeat

Jon Corby wrote:How many have you entered, and how much have you won?

Having read Phil talking about me in the post above, I interpreted yours very differently before realising you were quoting MW and not him.

It's a current offer is it? I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

Ian Volante wrote:It's a current offer is it? I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

I can't imagine it's going to 'go viral' - you're limited to 5 wins per household, you can only enter one code a day, and the immediate profit is so tiny. Even if you tricked the address system to get around the 5 wins limit, you're paid by cheque so you need to give someone's real name. A lot of individuals could take advantage of it, but their own incentive is on average about £15, which is pretty rubbish.

I just popped into Morrison's to pick up some beer, and picked up a packet of gum (Extra Ice or something) at the till with the offer on for 38p. I then put it back and decided to check out the multipacks (as suggested above by Raccoon), which were (somewhat bafflingly) £2.05 for five of the same packet. However, hidden amongst the other flavours was a plain spearmint one, which was only £1 for a five pack. Fully expecting to have to challenge the price at the till when it rings up as £2+ (Morrisons are bastards for this), I grabbed the four remaining packs. For once they rang up at the advertised price of £1 each.

There's about a 12% chance that I won't win from any of my twenty shots that I now have, but even then we regularly buy gum anyway for more than 20p per pack, so meh. Chances are I'll be well up on the whole deal though. Ian's right though, what is the point? Even if more people start buying their gum, they're still going to be paying you to do it. I don't understand!

Jon Corby wrote:What form does the 1 in 10 game take? Is it more interesting than Red or Black?

Michael Wallace wrote:There's a code inside the wrapper somewhere, which you enter on a website (along with your name, address and email), then they email you the next morning if you've won.

So "yes" then, basically.

Jon Corby wrote:Even if more people start buying their gum, they're still going to be paying you to do it. I don't understand!

Obviously I don't actually know, but I presume someone has done some calculation somewhere that a certain proportion of people who buy their product (who wouldn't otherwise) won't bother entering the code, or they'll enter one, lose, and not bother again. It's one thing to see the product in the shop, think "ooh, win a fiver", then by the time you get home and you find out you have to faff around with the Internet that you won't be bothered. On top of that it could just be a way of getting people into trying the gum and then sticking with it.

There was a similar thing during the World Cup last year with some deodorant doing a competition where every can had a code you'd enter online and you'd be assigned a team - if they got to the quarter-finals (or further) you won an amount of money. I did some stats on that (using pre-tournament odds) and found out that you could expect to profit on that one as well (I think I made about £50 from it in the end).

Michael Wallace wrote:There was a similar thing during the World Cup last year with some deodorant ... (I think I made about £50 from it in the end).

Yeah, thanks for telling us about that one as well.

I guess also it's just a marketing cost the same as any other really. I don't really understand advertising.

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:There was a similar thing during the World Cup last year with some deodorant ... (I think I made about £50 from it in the end).

Yeah, thanks for telling us about that one as well.

No problem

Michael Wallace wrote:There was a similar thing during the World Cup last year with some deodorant doing a competition where every can had a code you'd enter online and you'd be assigned a team - if they got to the quarter-finals (or further) you won an amount of money. I did some stats on that (using pre-tournament odds) and found out that you could expect to profit on that one as well (I think I made about £50 from it in the end).

Out of interest, were you assigned a team completely at random? (Were they explicit about this, because I'd have assumed they just gave everyone the crap teams (e.g. England) like in this promotion)

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:There was a similar thing during the World Cup last year with some deodorant doing a competition where every can had a code you'd enter online and you'd be assigned a team - if they got to the quarter-finals (or further) you won an amount of money. I did some stats on that (using pre-tournament odds) and found out that you could expect to profit on that one as well (I think I made about £50 from it in the end).

Out of interest, were you assigned a team completely at random? (Were they explicit about this, because I'd have assumed they just gave everyone the crap teams (e.g. England) like in this promotion)

On the T&Cs somewhere it said exactly the distribution of the teams, so teams like North Korea and shit were more common than anyone any good. There were still enough not-too-shit teams floating around though, and so it still worked out to a positive expectation (although this was based on standardised bookmaker odds, so nothing like as reliable as the chewing gum thing).

I see.

Michael Wallace wrote:

Ian Volante wrote:It's a current offer is it? I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

I can't imagine it's going to 'go viral' - you're limited to 5 wins per household, you can only enter one code a day, and the immediate profit is so tiny. Even if you tricked the address system to get around the 5 wins limit, you're paid by cheque so you need to give someone's real name. A lot of individuals could take advantage of it, but their own incentive is on average about £15, which is pretty rubbish.

Ah right, the relative awkwardness of procedure is quite a disincentive indeed.

Jon Corby wrote:Ian's right though, what is the point?

Didn't Ian say

Ian Volante wrote:I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

?

Even if more people start buying their gum, they're still going to be paying you to do it. I don't understand!

They might lose out in the short term but get more regular users, plus what has already been said about people not bothering to claim the money.

This thread didn't have any posts since June and then suddenly double figures on one day. This is amazing. I haven't worked out the probability exactly, but I think it's in the region of 1 in 843758435643786438957834758747216372181029403287594735896438766666666666666666666666666666666666666.

Gavin Chipper wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:Ian's right though, what is the point?

Didn't Ian say

Ian Volante wrote:I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

?

Even if more people start buying their gum, they're still going to be paying you to do it. I don't understand!

They might lose out in the short term but get more regular users, plus what has already been said about people not bothering to claim the money.

Oh yeah. I was referring to another Ian Volante (coincidence), who said "what's the point?"

Sorry, I thought that would have been obvious.

Jon Corby wrote:

Gavin Chipper wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:Ian's right though, what is the point?

Didn't Ian say

Ian Volante wrote:I suppose the assumption is that if/when this thing goes viral, the outlay on winners is effectively treated as a marketing budget. Probably a more effective budget spend than on posters too.

?

Even if more people start buying their gum, they're still going to be paying you to do it. I don't understand!

They might lose out in the short term but get more regular users, plus what has already been said about people not bothering to claim the money.

Oh yeah. I was referring to another Ian Volante (coincidence), who said "what's the point?"

Sorry, I thought that would have been obvious.

That must be my gran.

Michael Wallace wrote:4 entered, 1 win so far. It was my very first code that won, so they gave me the taste of victory before defeat after defeat

I'm on zero wins out of one attempt so far (assuming I should have heard by now).



Still, at least it means I'm more likely to win next time!

I haven't won any yet

I'm on 1 out of 6 now. Shocking. Make sure you check your spam folders though, since it wouldn't surprise me if the emails could get gobbled up.

Matt Morrison wrote:I haven't won any yet

Out of how many goes?

Michael Wallace wrote:

I'm on 1 out of 6 now. Shocking. Make sure you check your spam folders though, since it wouldn't surprise me if the emails could get gobbled up.

Yeah, I did check spam too, although I have missed stuff in there before. Do you need to acknowledge the win in any way from the email (confirm address or anything) or will you still receive your cheque even if you missed the email?

Jon Corby wrote:Do you need to acknowledge the win in any way from the email (confirm address or anything) or will you still receive your cheque even if you missed the email?

Yeah - you have to click a link to 'claim your prize', which is simply just another way to make fewer people claim. I find it interesting that they don't even send you a "better luck next time" email, again I presume it's because they want people to buy a load of packets, enter once and then forget about it.

Jon Corby wrote:

Matt Morrison wrote:I haven't won any yet

Out of how many goes?

None! HAHAHAHAHAHAH!

My £5 cheque arrived this morning still no more winners though

The letter that came with it encourages me to enter again "you could win another fiver" - no mention of the five win limit. If it weren't so much faff I'd be inclined to keep buying packs until I won five to see if either they change the wording on your fifth fiver letter (unlikely), and if they don't send them an angry letter about them trying to trick me. I'm such a cool dude.

Michael Wallace wrote:I'd be inclined to keep buying packs until I won five to see if either they change the wording on your fifth fiver letter (unlikely)

Huh, I would've said (likely) personally. I'm interested to know now. I'm going to try really hard now to win more than 5 times with my remaining 19 goes... I wonder if there's a lucky place or time to submit your codes, like there's lucky towns to buy lottery tickets and that.

I've tried one so far, no luck. Ten to go before I buy a few more.

Just won my second fiver with what was the last of my (initial) 10 codes

I've only seen these fuckers once so far, WH Smith in a train station - 81p each.

Matt Morrison wrote:I've only seen these fuckers once so far, WH Smith in a train station - 81p each.

Weird. Do you ever go in big(ish) supermarkets? I've only seen them in a large Sainsbury's and a large Morrisons.

Michael Wallace wrote:

Matt Morrison wrote:I've only seen these fuckers once so far, WH Smith in a train station - 81p each.

Weird. Do you ever go in big(ish) supermarkets? I've only seen them in a large Sainsbury's and a large Morrisons.

Yeah sorry I should have specified I haven't actually directly looked for them - they were just there in front of me in Smiths and I was more commenting on the price than the availability.

Matt Morrison wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:

Matt Morrison wrote:I've only seen these fuckers once so far, WH Smith in a train station - 81p each.

Weird. Do you ever go in big(ish) supermarkets? I've only seen them in a large Sainsbury's and a large Morrisons.

Yeah sorry I should have specified I haven't actually directly looked for them - they were just there in front of me in Smiths and I was more commenting on the price than the availability.

We all know you're just saying that to save face. It's ok.

Meanwhile, I'll get back to my bath of five pound notes.

Michael Wallace wrote:Just won my second fiver with what was the last of my (initial) 10 codes

Hmm. I'm on 0/2 now. I hope your good luck isn't going to be counterbalanced with my bad luck.

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Just won my second fiver with what was the last of my (initial) 10 codes

Hmm. I'm on 0/2 now. I hope your good luck isn't going to be counterbalanced with my bad luck.

Statistically speaking that's inevitable. Sorry.

Michael Wallace wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Just won my second fiver with what was the last of my (initial) 10 codes

Hmm. I'm on 0/2 now. I hope your good luck isn't going to be counterbalanced with my bad luck.

Statistically speaking that's inevitable. Sorry.

I knew it. Your dastardly plan was to write that article, get everybody else buying gum and entering. Basic laws of probability state that 9/10 of those other entries are going to lose, so you just have to make sure you gobble up that leftover 1. You evil raccoon genius.

0/4 here so far.

Woohoo, 1/5 now. That's the next justified.

Looking forward to the excitement of pooling the results too.

Ian Volante wrote:Woohoo, 1/5 now. That's the next justified.

Looking forward to the excitement of pooling the results too.

Hmm, so if you're on 1/5 and coon's on 2/10, I'm almost certain to go 15 without winning. I hate you guys.

Jon Corby wrote:

Ian Volante wrote:Woohoo, 1/5 now. That's the next justified.

Looking forward to the excitement of pooling the results too.

Hmm, so if you're on 1/5 and coon's on 2/10, I'm almost certain to go 15 without winning. I hate you guys.

I need to get to the supermarket soon and restock. You might be able to catch up at this rate.

Michael Wallace wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:

Ian Volante wrote:Woohoo, 1/5 now. That's the next justified.

Looking forward to the excitement of pooling the results too.

Hmm, so if you're on 1/5 and coon's on 2/10, I'm almost certain to go 15 without winning. I hate you guys.

I need to get to the supermarket soon and restock. You might be able to catch up at this rate.

In all seriousness though, if 1 in 10 codes are (already decided as) winners (as opposed to each code playing a 1 in 10 game at point of entry), every win you report does actually reduce my chances. I hate you guys.

Jon Corby wrote:In all seriousness though, if 1 in 10 codes are (already decided as) winners (as opposed to each code playing a 1 in 10 game at point of entry), every win you report does actually reduce my chances. I hate you guys.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it says somewhere that that's the case (as in, codes are predetermined winners). Are you sure it's not that you're just really unskilled at picking packets of gum? When you put the code in do you chant "blue blue blue"?

Michael Wallace wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:In all seriousness though, if 1 in 10 codes are (already decided as) winners (as opposed to each code playing a 1 in 10 game at point of entry), every win you report does actually reduce my chances. I hate you guys.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it says somewhere that that's the case (as in, codes are predetermined winners). Are you sure it's not that you're just really unskilled at picking packets of gum? When you put the code in do you chant "blue blue blue"?

Actually, what exactly do you mean when you say "put in the code"? You just put your wrapper under your pillow and wait to see if the Extra Tooth Fairy comes, don't you?

Jon Corby wrote:Actually, what exactly do you mean when you say "put in the code"? You just put your wrapper under your pillow and wait to see if the Extra Tooth Fairy comes, don't you?

Oh, I think you've been a bit silly here. You have to write your email address on the wrapper as well, otherwise how are they going to email you? Idoit.

Michael Wallace wrote:Idoit

Now who's the idiot

James Robinson wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Idoit

Now who's the idiot

He was telling me what I should be doing, and then said "I do it". I don't understand your point?

James Robinson wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Idoit

Now who's the idiot

Oh the ironing.

Edit: To my surprise, that is only the fourth time I've made that 'joke' on c4c. I've done it twice to Corby and twice to Ryan now. I wonder what we can infer from that.

Michael Wallace wrote:Edit: To my surprise, that is only the fourth time I've made that 'joke' on c4c. I've done it twice to Corby and twice to Ryan now. I wonder what we can infer from that.

That you lack originality?

BURN!

Jon Corby wrote:

Michael Wallace wrote:Edit: To my surprise, that is only the fourth time I've made that 'joke' on c4c. I've done it twice to Corby and twice to Ryan now. I wonder what we can infer from that.

That you lack originality?

BURN!

What I lack in originality I make up for in not being a chewing gum LOSER!

Do you guys want to flirt in a separate thread? I'm keen to hear more stuff like this:

Kirk Bevins wrote:Oh my God. Just had the weirdest coincidence ever.

I was flicking through the dictionary looking for awesome new words and found TZEDAKAH and thought "Jesus, if I get that in CofC that's definitely a winner and would be word of the CofC series". 10 minutes later I log onto apterous and up comes the TTT.

"Your new teaser is AKETZAHD. You have one minute to answer!"

I looked - HAKATZED? Nope, can't get it.

Then: "Time's up and no one got it! The answer to AKETZAHD was TZEDAKAH."

I couldn't believe my eyes - weirdest coincidence ever. Annoyed to miss the word though.

Moral of the story? You can't learn new words/learn how to spot new words just be looking at them in a dictionary - more needs to be done.

Can't really argue with that.

Sounds like a couple of people are getting jealous...

Jon Corby wrote:Sounds like a couple of people are getting jealous...

I feel like this can only be settled by a tag-team wrestling match at CO:LON.


Matt, Heather and me.

Perhaps a cage match?

I done a moderation.

Now, I know this decreases everybody's chances of winning a fiver, but could you tell me where I have to put in my codes, as I've gotten rid of the piece of packing where it presumably says I have to go.

I am dumb.