c4countdown

Charlie Reams wrote:I always prefer to be picking, but I have no idea if there's any real advantage to it, statistically speaking.

Matt Morrison wrote:For once, a thread that really deserves a poll.

Michael Wallace wrote:

Charlie Reams wrote:I always prefer to be picking, but I have no idea if there's any real advantage to it, statistically speaking.

Pimp me the numbers sometime, big boy.

Jon Corby wrote:There is the advantage that Kirk has described, but personally I found that hard to do in the studio. I much preferred when my opponent was picking because I could concentrate fully on the letters that were coming out, and start making words, and realising what was nearly there etc. When I was picking, I was focussing not more on not saying something stupid like cowel or vonsonant, or pausing too long, or not realising I still had three letters to pick, or was dribbling slightly while the camera was on me, etc etc

Gavin Chipper wrote:

Jon Corby wrote:There is the advantage that Kirk has described, but personally I found that hard to do in the studio. I much preferred when my opponent was picking because I could concentrate fully on the letters that were coming out, and start making words, and realising what was nearly there etc. When I was picking, I was focussing not more on not saying something stupid like cowel or vonsonant, or pausing too long, or not realising I still had three letters to pick, or was dribbling slightly while the camera was on me, etc etc

Hang on - you mean before the clock has started? Outside the time allowed? What a fucking cheat. I have no respect for people that do that. I actually had no idea it went on.

Ian Volante wrote: I'm coming over all John McEnroe right now.

Charlie Reams wrote:YouTube

JackHurst wrote:To put it plainly, if you are good, then yes, picking letters is an advantsage in a round.

JackHurst wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2010 8:44 pm To put it plainly, if you are good, then yes, picking letters is an advantsage in a round. I think theres a certain Level you have to be at before it becomes an advantage.

Charlie Reams wrote: ↑Sat May 23, 2020 12:09 pm To test Jack's hypothesis that this is a bigger factor for the strongest players, I looked at games where both players were in the Pro Ranks top 25 at the time the game was played. This leaves about 30,000 rounds. In this case, the picker expects to score 6.58 points per round versus the receiver's 6.53, netting out to an extra 0.49 points per game. The picker expects to win about 50.7% of decisive rounds, which is a bit higher than the overall 50.4%, but this difference is not statistically significant (p=0.2).

So overall I think my conclusion is that picker's advantage is real but very small, and doesn't increase much for the strongest players.

Charlie Reams wrote: ↑Sat May 23, 2020 12:09 pm I took a quick look into this based on apterous data. I only considered games that are reasonably simulations of Countdown, i.e. human-vs-human games with normal rules and 30-second rounds. I also only looked at data for the last two years, because the move to the much bigger dictionary presumably raised the skill ceiling overall and might've changed the balance of the game. That leaves about 550,000 rounds. I put the exact numbers in a spreadsheet if anyone is interested in digging further, but here's a summary of what I found:

Overall, the picker expects to score about 5.47 points per round versus the receiver's 5.43, which amounts to an extra 0.43 points per game in a standard 15-rounder. The picker expects to win about 50.4% of decisive rounds (i.e. ignoring draws), which is statistically significant at the 99.9% level.

To test Jack's hypothesis that this is a bigger factor for the strongest players, I looked at games where both players were in the Pro Ranks top 25 at the time the game was played. This leaves about 30,000 rounds. In this case, the picker expects to score 6.58 points per round versus the receiver's 6.53, netting out to an extra 0.49 points per game. The picker expects to win about 50.7% of decisive rounds, which is a bit higher than the overall 50.4%, but this difference is not statistically significant (p=0.2).

So overall I think my conclusion is that picker's advantage is real but very small, and doesn't increase much for the strongest players.

David Williams wrote: ↑Sat May 23, 2020 11:26 pm Declaring second is an advantage. It can be an advantage even if it gives you a lower expected score.

You're 21 points behind. Last letters game. You're looking at a safe seven or a dodgy eight. He goes eight, you go seven, and vice versa. He goes six, you go seven. In the long run it costs you points, but you win more games.

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 1:46 am If his eight is fine, then even if your eight is fine, you've lost anyway. Whereas if his eight is not fine, but neither is yours, you've also lost anyway. Might as well take the possibility of the sure points to potentially cut it to 14 and hope he's wrong about his.

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 12:34 am You're using that to rebut a different situation. See what David wrote again.

Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 12:24 am The actual game situation in my case was 62-55 with the final letters round, selection MIFGOSEMV, and he said "six". I had FOGIES (dodgy 6) and some 5, I can't remember what it was now. Saying FOGIES kept it 68-61, and after the final numbers that was 68-68. So if I'd said 5 I'd have lost. I don't really get this line of thinking.