c4countdown

A perfect score on Countdown is 248. Will anyone achieve this in Countdown's history?

I got a 247 earlier so it's got to be close.

238 would the be maximum surely Jason?

james doohan wrote:238 would the be maximum surely Jason?

IAWTP. 11 letters rounds with 18 points each (! ), plus 10 points each for 3 numbers rounds plus conundrum.

I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.

Kirk's max game is the best it can get. I would say, with the increasing popularity of apterous, that that will probably happen on the show again sometime.

Did you do that well on Apterous, Matt?

Wow!

Jason Larsen wrote:Did you do that well on Apterous, Matt?

Wow!

Unfortunately not Jason. I did it at home. I was keeping it a secret until you started this thread!

Julie T wrote: I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.

Yes, I remember a game that involved Ben Wilson which had like 5.

Edit: Actually no, it had 4 - quite a few have had 4 9's.

Darren Carter wrote:

Julie T wrote: I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.

Yes, I remember a game that involved Ben Wilson which had like 5.

Edit: Actually no, it had 4 - quite a few have had 4 9's.

The highest max game was 173, achieved in Des Lynam's 2nd week. There were 5 9's, yet neither contestant got a century.

http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_3967

173 on Apterous as well. Both players got a century, although neither player had a massive score.

Wow

I don't like to get all technical and nerdy and that (I do really) it's never ever going to happen unless the letters are rigged for it. Numbers and conundrum are trivial, but if the letters follow the distribution of the show (and apterous) then it can't really happen.

JimBentley wrote:I don't like to get all technical and nerdy and that (I do really) it's never ever going to happen unless the letters are rigged for it. Numbers and conundrum are trivial, but if the letters follow the distribution of the show (and apterous) then it can't really happen.

About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games. Of course this is a significant underestimate, because each nine gets less and less probable as the nice letters get used up, and the numbers aren't guaranteed to yield 30 points either. So basically, no.

This should be in the spoilers forum, you bastards.

Charlie Reams wrote:About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games.

I'm glad you did this calculation as
1) I failed A-level maths
2) I'd have run out of fingers about 6,999,999,999,999,990 before getting to the answer.
However, I had estimated the answer to the question to be 'no' without counting on my fingers.

Can anyone tell me the distribution of letters used on the show?

It can't happen unless they rigged the game? No way.

Jason Larsen wrote:It can't happen unless they rigged the game? No way.

Jason, do you mean for someone to get a score of 238...by getting 11 9 letter words, all 3 numbers and the conundrum?

After nearly 5,000 games on Countdown and nearly 200,000 on apterous, the highest available max is 173 (both with 5 nines). The chance of 11 9 letter words coming out is ridiculously small. It will never happen.

It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?

Marc Meakin wrote:It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?

So basically 3 numbers and 12 conundrums where the conundrums could end in S. A think a couple may get it if we know it's there...as it's easier to spot a 9 if you know there's one there.

Kirk Bevins wrote:

Marc Meakin wrote:It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?

So basically 3 numbers and 12 conundrums where the conundrums could end in S. A think a couple may get it if we know it's there...as it's easier to spot a 9 if you know there's one there.

I guess after the first 4 rounds maybe some of you experts might recognise the pattern but I guess a few S ending words would make some players have to think a bit.
Rather than the almost robotic way that some players know conundrums in miliseconds, through lots of practise.
I remember the only time I got a 9 against Chris D. was with OUTSWINGS.

There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.

Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.

That's why I was asking if anyone knows the distribution so I could write a little app to calculate a possible sequence.

Alec Rivers wrote:

Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.

That's why I was asking if anyone knows the distribution so I could write a little app to calculate a possible sequence.

Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm help

Mark, would you know where the thread I was talking about is as well?

Gavin Chipper wrote:Mark, would you know where the thread I was talking about is as well?

No, I am only good with Google.

try searching off-topic for "countdown dice" - that's ringing my bell.

Charlie Reams wrote:About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games. Of course this is a significant underestimate, because each nine gets less and less probable as the nice letters get used up, and the numbers aren't guaranteed to yield 30 points either. So basically, no.

And then of course, when the once in 7 million billion games comes up, you need a contestant to score the max. Which so far as we know has only happened once in 5,000 episodes. So multiply the odds by another 5,000 or so.

David Roe wrote: Which so far as we know has only happened once in 5,000 episodes. So multiply the odds by another 5,000 or so.

Correction: Has happened once since the start of the 15 round format, which is far less (or fewer, I think) than 5000.

Marc Meakin wrote:Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm help

It does perfectly, thank you.

EDIT: That list shows the letters J, K, Q, V, W, X, Y, and Z occurring only once but they come up more than once in a game, so I'm assuming the entire list is duplicated at least once.

Matt Morrison wrote:try searching off-topic for "countdown dice" - that's ringing my bell.

I couldn't find it there. The thread consisted mainly of hilarious quotes of really long word lists (you had to be there). But this is related and it goes further by including the conundrum and a spare round!

Alec Rivers wrote:

Marc Meakin wrote:Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm help

It does perfectly, thank you.

EDIT: That list shows the letters J, K, Q, V, W, X, Y, and Z occurring only once but they come up more than once in a game, so I'm assuming the entire list is duplicated at least once.

Sounds like a dangerous move.

The distribution recently has changed. Two Ys, two Ws...it would be nice to have an updated version...or at least remove some letters so it matches what the distribution was last year. I'll happily oblige to do this

It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.

Marc Meakin wrote:

Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.

Just say ERVEN.

Alec Rivers wrote:

Marc Meakin wrote:

Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.

Just say ERVEN.

Well I never.

What I'm saying is I know it can happen and it is possible to beat the odds!

I know you're kidding!

Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.

It should be quite easy to guarantee the possibility of a 9 in every round if you know in advance how many consonants and vowels the contestants will choose.

An example with 4 vowels and 5 consonants [using the distribution given above] could be (this is ad hoc):
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N L A E I O
S T R N L A E I O
S T R P L A E I O
P M G H C A I O O
Q C K B M A E I U

to give ORDINATES (etc) 6 times, RELATIONS (etc) twice, EPILATORS, OMOPHAGIC and QUICKBEAM as the 11 letters round nines.

The difficulty is in finding a shuffle that allows this for any combination of 3/4/5-vowel picks. I suspect it's possible if we allow 3-4 (or 4-5) vowel choices but extending it to all three options is likely to be impossible.

Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

Yes, Jason, it can happen. Just as you can toss a coin twelve times in a row and it will land on its edge each time. Or that your house will explode in a gas blast and the bricks will reassemble themselves exactly as before half a mile away. Or that there's a 66-car pile-up on Route 66 and every single driver and passenger is called Jason Larsen. It can happen, but it isn't likely.

David Roe wrote:

Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!

Yes, Jason, it can happen. Just as you can toss a coin twelve times in a row and it will land on its edge each time. Or that your house will explode in a gas blast and the bricks will reassemble themselves exactly as before half a mile away. Or that there's a 66-car pile-up on Route 66 and every single driver and passenger is called Jason Larsen. It can happen, but it isn't likely.

Or this. (Just thought of it when you mentioned all those.)

I know, David, but we're not on Channel 5 and in front of Justin Lee Collins!

You never know what might happen if, say, Julian Fell appeared on Countdown again and beat his score of 144!

Gavin Chipper wrote:Or this.

lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.

Alec, exactly!

Gavin, I don't understand that analogy. The reason being, we're all different.

Jason Larsen wrote:The reason being, we're all different.

It was only last year that you were telling us you were the same as us.

Jason Larsen wrote:Alec, exactly!

Thanks. But that doesn't detract from David's original assertion that the odds of somebody achieving a score of 238 in one game of Countdown are almost immeasurably small. It is not enough to say it is improbable, it is improbable on a startling scale. Sorry, Jason, but there's more chance that Drew Carey will arrive on your doorstep tomorrow wearing a pink tutu and offer you a multi-million dollar contract to co-host a bunch of prime-time game shows for the next ten years.

Alec Rivers wrote: lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.

Brain cells "in their hundreds" isn't really that many. Obviously it adds up over long periods of time, but I would say personality and traits can and do change at least somewhat over long periods of time.

Innis Carson wrote:

Alec Rivers wrote: lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.

Brain cells "in their hundreds" isn't really that many. Obviously it adds up over long periods of time, but I would say personality and traits can and do change at least somewhat over long periods of time.

That my figures might be inaccurate is irrelevant - my point is that the claim that our entire 'being' is stored physically in our brain cells is only an assumption.

Anyway, to get back on topic, I still think the answer to the original question is a resounding 'never'.

Kirk, actually, we're all alike but different in that we both live in free countries, but the most noticeable difference between us is that your name is Kirk Bevins and my name is Jason Larsen.

Alec, you never know, Drew Carey could come and visit my neighborhood! He goes to Qwest Field all the time! If he really feels out to lunch he might dress in drag!

My prediction is that no, there will not be an investigation of Parliament if someone should get a perfect score on Countdown in the near future. Jeff Stelling promised to "tone it down" on Countdown as opposed to "being himself." He knows that it is a game and it should be played, so he doesn't make the show all about himself. It's the contestants that get all the media attention if they get a perfect score. Something would be wrong if it were any other way.

Jason Larsen wrote:... we both live in free countries

Ha. That's what they want you to think.

What is your country called? The United Kingdom

Alec Rivers wrote:That my figures might be inaccurate is irrelevant - my point is that the claim that our entire 'being' is stored physically in our brain cells is only an assumption.

It's a very, very reasonable one though.

Alec Rivers wrote:

Gavin Chipper wrote:Or this.

lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.

Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Higgs Field.

Alec Rivers wrote:

Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Higgs Field.

Saturday night, I feel the air is getting hot - like you, baby.

Jason Larsen wrote:What is your country called? The United Kingdom

No, it's called England, which, along with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland form "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".

Jon Corby wrote:

Alec Rivers wrote:

Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Higgs Field.

Saturday night, I feel the air is getting hot - like you, baby.

LOL

Alec Rivers wrote:

Jason Larsen wrote:What is your country called? The United Kingdom

No, it's called England, which, along with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland form "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".

But on Sporcle, you have to put "United Kingdom" when listing the countries. What point is there in carrying on if we can't even trust Sporcle?

Also, weird places like Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Channel Islands etc., are they neither a country or in a country?

Gavin Chipper wrote:Also, weird places like Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Channel Islands etc., are they neither a country or in a country?

Well they are neither UN member states nor any of 3 other widely recognized nations.

Alec Rivers wrote:

Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Higgs Field.

I was just mocking your bad science.

Charlie Reams wrote:

Alec Rivers wrote:

Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.

Higgs Field.

I was just mocking your bad science.

Okay, but we don't all spend our entire lives trying to be scientific. There's being human, too.