c4countdown

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:19 pm**

I've produced a list of ELO ratings for Countdown players based on real life games. This accounts for games from Television and games from Co-Events. I used all games that I could find.

Top 25 Players v0.0.4

Code: Select all

Rob Foster:2364 P:304 W:235 L:64 WIN_RATE:78
Conor Travers:2216 P:171 W:138 L:33 WIN_RATE:80
Innis Carson:2210 P:108 W:94 L:14 WIN_RATE:87
Jack Worsley:2204 P:376 W:314 L:60 WIN_RATE:83
Jack Hurst:2202 P:156 W:128 L:27 WIN_RATE:82
Dylan Taylor:2145 P:185 W:147 L:36 WIN_RATE:80
Callum Todd:2142 P:385 W:286 L:97 WIN_RATE:74
Ahmed Mohamed:2137 P:41 W:36 L:5 WIN_RATE:87
Zarte Siempre:2078 P:281 W:198 L:82 WIN_RATE:70
Jen Steadman:2073 P:244 W:169 L:74 WIN_RATE:69
Jonathan De Souza:2060 P:149 W:88 L:61 WIN_RATE:59
Mark Deeks:2054 P:102 W:78 L:24 WIN_RATE:76
Oli Garner:2036 P:90 W:68 L:20 WIN_RATE:77
Tom Chafer-Cook:2033 P:124 W:85 L:39 WIN_RATE:68
Edward McCullagh:2024 P:75 W:61 L:13 WIN_RATE:82
Thomas Cappleman:2022 P:299 W:220 L:78 WIN_RATE:73
Thomas Carey:2000 P:466 W:281 L:179 WIN_RATE:61
Jon O'Neill:2000 P:215 W:140 L:71 WIN_RATE:66
Kirk Bevins:1973 P:179 W:139 L:37 WIN_RATE:78
Tim Down:1964 P:206 W:124 L:81 WIN_RATE:60
Mark Murray:1963 P:165 W:108 L:55 WIN_RATE:66
Chris Wills:1939 P:51 W:44 L:7 WIN_RATE:86
Giles Hutchings:1937 P:177 W:122 L:54 WIN_RATE:69
Stephen Read:1932 P:172 W:114 L:56 WIN_RATE:67
George Armstrong:1929 P:187 W:98 L:88 WIN_RATE:52

Data Sources and tools

TV game Data was pulled from the Countdown Database. This includes TV shows up to series 84. Thanks to Charlie Reams, Mike Brown and all the recappers for this data.
Co-event Data was pulled from Greem.co.uk. This includes TV shows up to Co:Man 2020. Thanks to Graeme Cole, and the co-event organisers for this data.
The elo calculations are made using a tool freely available on GitHub. Thanks to ddm7018 for this tool.

Help me!

The data is incomplete. We need to get results from co-events since co:vid into Graeme's DB which might involve some sort of co-ordinated community effort. Volunteers welcome!
We also need to get more recent episodes of Countdown into the DB. I am particularly keen on episodes from the latest CofC to be included. If anybody knows how these get added to the DB please enlighten me
There might be bugs. When I share a more detailed version of the data (and the code) if you are so inclined, please take a look and let me know if you spot issues.

Missing events

Waterford 2021, 2022, and 2023: No data here. Will need to reach out to Eoin.
Braintree 2021, 2022 & 2023: Jeff thinks he has the data for these. Just a matter of him finding time to send it over to me and then me finding time to put it into the system.
Blackpool 2021, 2022 and 2023: No data here. Will need to reach out to Mark M.
Galway 2022: No data here. Will need to reach out to Paul
Rugby 2023: With MSR to dig the data out of his old laptop
Sligo: Looks like this event the Republic of Ireland doesn't have much info available at all. Not sure what I'll be able to find on this one
Dublin 2023: No trace of this event on the forum either, so I'll have to ask around
Edinburgh 2023:
Focal finals 2023 + MK Open 2023
Colin + Hangover 2024

Total: 18

View The Code
GitHub Repository with link coming soon...

FAQs

Games are fed into the simulation in chronological order by date
Games from the same date (i.e. all the games from a single event) or fed into the simulation in the order they were registered for the event
I removed the "home advantage" parameter used in the GitHub Elo library, and also set the K factor to 50.
Margin of victory, or length of game do not matter
I have added a capability to "merge" known player who might be in the system with multiple names. So far I have only merged Jack Hurst/Jack Hirst, Toms/Thomases Carey and Cappleman, and Dinos/Konstadinos Sfyris.

Change log

0.0.2: Add 2022 and 2023 Colin Main Events and Hangovers. Add Manchester 2023 and 2022. Add Brighton 2022 and 2023. Add Birmingham 2022 and 2023 and Goat Birmingham 2023. Add 2022 Finals and 2022 Open. 13 Events in total. Add player additional player merging for JDS MSR and Old Garner
0.0.3: Add CoLon 2022 and CoC XVI. Add Played/Win/Loss/Win Rate stats
0.0.4: Add CoLon 2023, Co:Ne 2022 and 2023, Edi 2022 and Go:Leeds 2023

Jack's to do list

Put it on GitHub with a readme
Merge more players who are wrongly in with multiple names
Get events post covid in
Double check events DB to exclude any "online" tournaments
Come up with better filtering rules
Better visual representation / browsing of data

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:34 pm**

Rob already in the lead not even counting his results since covid - will be interesting to see how that grows

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:40 pm**

Interesting stuff. I assume Ahmed would be top 5 if S84+ were included, and Ronan would be on the list somewhere. Rob Foster is a fascinating case, clearly right up there with the goatiest GOATs but might forever be plagued by the "can he do it on a wet Wednesday night in Salford?" question

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:40 pm**

Elo is a name, not an acronym. ELO ratings are the kind that you can’t bring down.

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:45 pm**

but might forever be plagued by the "can he do it on a wet Wednesday night in Salford?" question

Point taken, but, ehhh, the guy's sublime. He could do it any night anywhere. (Matron.)

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:52 pm**

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:45 pm
but might forever be plagued by the "can he do it on a wet Wednesday night in Salford?" question
Point taken, but, ehhh, the guy's sublime. He could do it any night anywhere. (Matron.)

Lionel Messi always had the "could he do it on a wet Wednesday night in Stoke?" question hanging over him. The answer being, yes, obviously, he's unquestionably one of the best players of all time, but in the absence of him actually doing it it would always be there as a stick for haters to beat him with. I don't think Rob Foster has any haters, he's a thoroughly lovely individual, but still

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:55 pm**

Perfectly willing to accept that Rob Foster is the Lionel Messi of Countdown.

Posted: **Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:43 pm**

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:55 pm Perfectly willing to accept that Rob Foster is the Lionel Messi of Countdown.

I've always thought of Lionel Messi as the Rob Foster of Football tbh ...

Posted: **Fri Aug 11, 2023 7:33 am**

Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:40 pm Elo is a name, not an acronym. ELO ratings are the kind that you can’t bring down.

Don't bring them down, Bruce?

Posted: **Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:22 pm**

Callum Todd wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 7:33 am
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:40 pm Elo is a name, not an acronym. ELO ratings are the kind that you can’t bring down.
Don't bring them down, Bruce?

Glad someone shares my taste in music from before my time

Posted: **Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:30 pm**

13 Events Added and Ratings updated. Rob still at the top, with the other two usual suspects also making up the top 3.

Loads of events still to be added that Rob won without losing a game, so expect to see his gap widen a bit when we have that data.

Keep thinking of it all as provisional due to the incomplete data.

Posted: **Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:38 pm**

Steve Hyde wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:40 pm I assume Ahmed would be top 5 if S84+ were included, and Ronan would be on the list somewhere. Rob Foster is a fascinating case, clearly right up there with the goatiest GOATs but might forever be plagued by the "can he do it on a wet Wednesday night in Salford?" question

I think it works out that you have to perform well at a lot of events to get a good rating. Winning a series alone does very little, since the opposition is relatively week/unknown so you aren't getting many rating points per win. Winning a CofC is a bit better because you are picking up points from other good players, but it's still only 4 games, and those players won't have super high ratings.

Posted: **Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:57 am**

I love that Innis is right up there in this system. I think he often gets forgotten these days, given he was a beaten semi finalist (only just!). I used to love battling it out with him on Apto back in the day (probably a ratio of 20:1... Obviously in his favour :p )

No surprises with the top 3. Looks like the system works! Nice one.

Posted: **Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:32 am**

There were three eras. The Kirk era, the Innis era, the Jack Worsley era. All three unplayable in their era for everyone except Conor, who straddles the timelines and remains the greatest player the game has ever seen.

Posted: **Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:48 am**

London 2022 and CoC XVI now added. That gives us all of Ahmed's games for those curious to see where he is ranked.

I've also added Played / Won / Lost / Win Rate to the data. Note that some event formats had single player games, and some games have no scores recorded, which will explain why Played != Won + Lost for all players.

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:32 am There were three eras. The Kirk era, the Innis era, the Jack Worsley era. All three unplayable in their era for everyone except Conor, who straddles the timelines and remains the greatest player the game has ever seen.

Agree with this, but I would also add that we are now in the Rob Foster Era

Posted: **Sun Aug 13, 2023 3:09 am**

Can you also add a column for cumulate miles travelled to/from Co Events, pounds spent on transport and hotels?... Some players with >300 real life Countdown games... that is quite the commitment!

Posted: **Tue Aug 15, 2023 12:15 pm**

What rating do you give randoms who turn up on telly with no form? 1000?

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:20 pm**

Ian Volante wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 12:15 pm What rating do you give randoms who turn up on telly with no form? 1000?

1500 is the default. At the moment, all of the configurable parameters are just at the default that the creator of the python lib put in. Happy to review this and change if needed.

Missing events

Waterford 2021, 2022, and 2023: No data here. Will need to reach out to Eoin.
Braintree 2021 and 2022: Jeff thinks he has the data for these. Just a matter of him finding time to send it over to me and then me finding time to put it into the system.
Blackpool 2021 and 2022: No data here. Will need to reach out to Mark M.
Co:Ne 2022: Robbo did a great job recapping the datahere which I can enter when I have time.
Galway 2022: No data here. Will need to reach out to Paul
Edinburgh 2022: Fantastic from Robbo again. Just a matter of me putting it in.
Rugby 2023: With MSR to dig the data out of his old laptop
Leeds 2022: Thanks Callum
Sligo: Looks like this event the Republic of Ireland doesn't have much info available at all. Not sure what I'll be able to find on this one
Dublin 2023: No trace of this event on the forum either, so I'll have to ask around
Newcastle 2023: Robbo Strikes again

Total: 15
Data available already: 4
Data coming soon: 3
Needs chasing: 8

Couple of notable things that I think will happen when this data is added:
Maus, Dan Byrom, Hazel and Eddy should all jump up in the ratings quite a bit because these events cover a solid set of results for them
Rob's lead will widen significantly, with quite a few of his points coming at my own expense - Those unaccounted games contain several unbeaten event wins for Rob and also 4 wins on the bounce over me.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:58 pm**

Dublin was put on the wiki by the mysterious BeachyBoy99

probably some others on the wiki too

https://wiki.apterous.org/Co:Dublin_2023

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:43 am**

JackHurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:19 pm I've produced a list of ELO ratings for Countdown players based on real life games. This accounts for games from Television and games from Co-Events. I used all games that I could find.

Top 25 Players v0.0.3

Where can the rest of us find out our ratings?

FAQs

What does this stand for?

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:52 am**

Stewart Gordon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:43 am
JackHurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:19 pm FAQs
What does this stand for?

Lots of people have been asking that.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:30 pm**

No thoughts of bumping up the K factor for finals games?

Posted: **Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:48 pm**

Ian Volante wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:30 pm No thoughts of bumping up the K factor for finals games?

Nope. Trying to add as little complexity as possible.

Stewart Gordon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:43 am Where can the rest of us find out our ratings?

Not fully available yet. I plan to post the full standings eventually, but need to get some more events in, and have to tidy up a few things.

For your interest, here's you:

Stewart Gordon:1543 P:495 W:213 L:276 WIN_RATE:43

You are 823rd out of over 7000. The vast majority of people in the list are people who played 1 game and lost. The entry Elo rating is 1500, so you are just above that.

Posted: **Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:49 pm**

Version 0.0.4 is out. I've added 5 more events: Co:Ne 2022 and 2023, Edit 2022, London 2023 and Leeds 2023. Robs lead at the top extends. Ahmed moves up into the top 10.

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