Putin/Russia invading Ukraine

[Gavin Chipper]

I know you've all been itching for this topic so here it is. Actually I think generally discussions come up on here where there might be some debate and disagreement so nobody has bothered bringing this up.

But I think it's time for this topic to exist, not least to discuss what's going to happen about the Russian Grand Prix!

[Callum Todd]

Damn, you beat me to it; posted as I was writing. I think my post is a sufficiently specific subtopic though and hey it's not like I've not contributed to a similar pair of related threads on here recently.

Seeing videos of military convoys and tanks driving over land borders, and military helicopters being shot at in flight, is very scary. Everytime I see one of these things and get scared though, I have to remind myself that if the footage had been filmed in parts of the Middle East, I'd probably feel less concerned by it as we all seem to have got used to war in certain countries over the past couple of decades.

The possibility of escalation to nuclear conflict is quite worrying though.

Also no idea what to make of the fact that it seems the Chernobyl Power Plant is a specifically targeted location.

[Gavin Chipper]

I was talking to a friend about this. Apparently the word on the internet is that he's doing this now because he's (terminally?) ill and might not have long left. The reason for thinking this is that he looks quite bloated these days, which could be a sign of being on some heavy-duty medication, and he sits at these massive tables away from people because he can't afford to catch COVID, being immuno-suppressed due to the medication.

[Callum Todd]

Maybe he's a lizard.

[Callum Todd]

[...] what's going to happen about the Russian Grand Prix!

Related.

[Christy Cooper]

I wonder if Vlad the Lad is available for a Dictionary Corner slot.... I bet Anne calling him out would soon make him shit his pants.

[Callum Todd]

Intetesting piece about the spelling of Ukraine's capital.

I didn't know this. I would always have spelled it 'Kiev' but had noticed that Ukrainian football teams such as Dynamo Kyiv spell it differently. I never knew why but assumed it was just like how Bayern Munich call themselves Bayern München.

I'll be spelling it Kyiv from now on.

[Marc Meakin]

The Champions League final will no longer be in St Petersberg it's been moved to Paris (provided France haven't surrendered by then)

[Callum Todd]

[...] what's going to happen about the Russian Grand Prix!

It's off. Mazepin's seat under consideration aswell, so perhaps a route into F1 for Fittipaldi.

[Fred Mumford]

The Champions League final will no longer be in St Petersberg

The Russian GP might be off but Indycar is racing at St Petersburg this weekend guilt free.

[Gavin Chipper]

The Champions League final will no longer be in St Petersberg

The Russian GP might be off but Indycar is racing at St Petersburg this weekend guilt free.

Yeah, but that's because it's in Florida.

[Fred Mumford]

I guessed you would know that.

[Gavin Chipper]

I guessed you would know that.

Actually I don't follow Indycar particularly closely but I looked it up.

[Adam Gillard]

Part of me worries that the apparently slower than expected ground invasion is a ploy to allow thousands of weapons to be brought to Ukraine's borders and then seized by the Russian army when they bring out their big bombs.

[Gavin Chipper]

The discussion of the no-fly zone is interesting. Zelensky has criticised NATO for not implementing it. Obviously the argument is that they don't want to be at war with Russia (with the potential for the nukes to come out). But isn't that a general argument against the existence of NATO in the first place if they are avoiding conflict with Russia at all costs?

I'm not sure what the right thing to do is in reality but I do think there is a strong argument for implementing a no-fly zone anyway and daring Russia to break it. I'm not sure it's that much different from the situation we have now with all NATO countries. Other than the fact that Russia is already in the middle of invading Ukraine of course. But they could have set up this no-fly zone a couple of weeks ago when they suspected what Putin was up to. Yeah, hindsight and everything.

[Callum Todd]

At first glance it appears obvious that a no-fly zone is the right thing to do, but I do think it's understandable that they're reluctant to do this it undeniably escalates the tension and we're not too far away from things getting really hairy.

Essentially you absolutely can not ever lay down a rule if you're not fully willing to enforce it. So to say "we're implenting a no-fly zone" essentially means "we're going to attack you if you fly here". If Putin then decides to fly there anyway then NATO have no choice but to make good on their threat, as if they roll over and back down then they've already lost to Putin. So essentially: declaring a no-fly zone makes it Putin's turn, and makes it that he can choose to immediately instigate a war with NATO. NATO doesn't want to go to war with Russia (mostly because of the risk of it becoming nuclear) and therefore doesn't want to declare a no-fly zone, despite the apparent need to do so.

It's fucked. No idea what the way out of this is without Putin either getting what he wants or somehow backing down. Maybe pressure from within his own country is the only way that can happen, but it's not like he's going to worry about losing votes.

[Fiona T]

Maybe pressure from within his own country is the only way that can happen, but it's not like he's going to worry about losing votes.

It appears that many Russians are believing Putin's version of events.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

[Callum Todd]

Maybe pressure from within his own country is the only way that can happen, but it's not like he's going to worry about losing votes.

It appears that many Russians are believing Putin's version of events.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

Yeah I saw that, was talking about it with the lads at pub last night. It seems some Russian soldiers in Ukraine don't even know where they are. They've been told they're on a training exercise and moved around in tanks until they've lost their bearings, and think they're just on a training exercise in Russia until they're stopped by Ukrainian defences and told they're in Ukraine and they're part of an invasion. Some of the younger soldiers in particular seem very distressed to learn this. I've seen a video of a very young soldier crying when he realises where he is and what he's doing. He looked no older than about 20, so Putin's Russia is all he's ever known.

[Gavin Chipper]

At what point does it become irresponsible to continue with this defence? The rest of the world have made it clear they're not going to join in this war because they're too scared of Russia and what Putin might do, and Ukraine's military might is nothing compared to Russia's. So if Russia decide to carry on, they will eventually take over exactly what they want to take over. But by carrying on with this defence, more Ukrainians will inevitably die. Is it worth it? And by actively conscripting Ukrainians, is the Ukrainian government responsible for the deaths of any of the conscripted people, as well as any innocent civilians?

People love to hear the emotive stories about the passion of the Ukrainian people, but we have to be pragmatic and look at the likely end result given each possible decision.

[Ian Volante]

At what point does it become irresponsible to continue with this defence? The rest of the world have made it clear they're not going to join in this war because they're too scared of Russia and what Putin might do, and Ukraine's military might is nothing compared to Russia's. So if Russia decide to carry on, they will eventually take over exactly what they want to take over. But by carrying on with this defence, more Ukrainians will inevitably die. Is it worth it? And by actively conscripting Ukrainians, is the Ukrainian government responsible for the deaths of any of the conscripted people, as well as any innocent civilians?

People love to hear the emotive stories about the passion of the Ukrainian people, but we have to be pragmatic and look at the likely end result given each possible decision.

To put it another way, at what point does it stop being irresponsible to surrender to the aggressive neighbour, and to allow them to use your land and kill your people with impunity?

The general intelligence opinion seems to be that Russia is already scraping the bottom of the barrel both in terms of manpower and equipment and are in no position to sustain a prolonged ground war. The more Ukraine can stress them, the more likely it is that they will have to dig in or fall back.