c4countdown

After Emma won with such long odds as a qualifier to win the US Open I wanted to ask what your candidate would be.
If some clever person wants to make it a poll then so be it.
I will mention 3 in my lifetime.
Leicester winning the Premier League.
Wimbledon beating Liverpool to win the FA Cup.
1981 Bob Willis/Ian Botham Ashes win

I don't think any tournament with two competitors would ever have record long odds. E.g. the Ashes or FA Cup final (though obviously the whole FA Cup from the start could count).

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:40 pm I don't think any tournament with two competitors would ever have record long odds. E.g. the Ashes or FA Cup final (though obviously the whole FA Cup from the start could count).

I think the 1981 Ashes odds was quite long as England had scored less than a hundred in their first innings

Lincoln City reaching the quarter-finals of the FA Cup in 2017

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:12 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:40 pm I don't think any tournament with two competitors would ever have record long odds. E.g. the Ashes or FA Cup final (though obviously the whole FA Cup from the start could count).

I think the 1981 Ashes odds was quite long as England had scored less than a hundred in their first innings

I would class this as more of a great comeback than a great upset, as it's only an upset from the perspective of how far behind they were early on rather than at the beginning of the series because - as Gavin points out - it's hard for any sports upset to be that massive when there's only two competitors.

If we're talking great sporting comebacks though, the two that jump to mind for me are Superbowl LI and Tyson Fury's (unofficial) victory over Deontay Wilder in their first fight, either from the point he was knocked down in round 12, or all the way back to when he was obese and suicidal.

Leicester winning the Premier League really was phenomenal in the modern era of football. It's hard to state how much of an advantage the 'big 6' in particular had, and the fact that a team widely tipped to be relegated comfortably outperformed all of them plus 13 other teams in a full league season - rather than just a knockout tournament - makes it truly incredible.

Barca vs PSG
6-1 after being 4-0 down in the first leg. On 87 minutes, they still needed 3 goals. The 6th goal going in was absolutely mental.

Again, as mentioned, not so much an upset as much as a great comeback.

There needs to be a distinction between upsets or long odds at the start of the contest or part way through. A lot of those mentioned so far are really great comebacks, but not necessarily big upsets based on how people thought beforehand.

Edit - yeah, what Noel said basically.

Eh, none of them beat Raducanu.

Denmark euros 92
Greece euros 04

... lesnar beating undertaker and ending the streak ... (i know i know...)

James Buster Douglas beating a seemingly invincible Milke Tyson.
Leon Spinks beating Muhammad Ali

Sheffield beating Wigan in the 1998 Challenge Cup final was very unexpected, Wigan were something like 20/1 on to win.

Looking at in game-comebacks, there was a ridiculous Hibs-Hearts match a few years ago which may have been something like 4-1 or 32 at 90 minutes, but finished 4-4 (I think); and a couple of weeks ago, I was privileged to witness Catalan scoring 18 points in the last four minutes to peg St Helens back to 30-30 at full time, followed by a drop goal in extra time to win 31-30.

At my local parkrun, there have been some quite fast times since lockdown. Except one week, when coincidentally all the fast runners didn't turn up. This geezer came first in a time nearly two minutes slower than any other first place time since lockdown (well 1:57) and in a time that would have placed him ninth the following week.

Mark Deeks wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:49 pm Eh, none of them beat Raducanu.

As awesome as Raducanu's win was (I loved every minute of watching her), you do have to keep in mind she had already made the 4th round in her previous (and only other) major earlier in the year, so there was already a good indicator of her quality. Also with young players bursting on the scene, there has to be a huge seeding jump happen. If she were in her mid-late twenties and had spent her whole career outside the top 250 prior to recent events then I'd be more inclined to agree.

For me (yeah I am biased) there's no way Raducanu beats Leicester.

500-1 pre-tournament odds for Raducanu versus (famously) 5000-1 for Leicester.

Yeah Leicester is definitely more impressive. Football teams can have three-week freak form, but sustaining it at a consistent average for a whole 10 months was special. Not suggesting Raducanu was freak form, just comparing the time periods.

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:53 am James Buster Douglas beating a seemingly invincible Milke Tyson.
Leon Spinks beating Muhammad Ali

Heavyweight boxing is famously volatile. So long as the bout was between two recognised high-level professionals I really wouldn't call any result a major upset.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:45 pm At my local parkrun, there have been some quite fast times since lockdown. Except one week, when coincidentally all the fast runners didn't turn up. This geezer came first in a time nearly two minutes slower than any other first place time since lockdown (well 1:57) and in a time that would have placed him ninth the following week.

Okay forget Raducanu and Leicester, Gavin's parkrun geezer is definitely the greatest sporting story of all time.

Callum Todd wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:50 am

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:53 am James Buster Douglas beating a seemingly invincible Milke Tyson.
Leon Spinks beating Muhammad Ali

Heavyweight boxing is famously volatile. So long as the bout was between two recognised high-level professionals I really wouldn't call any result a major upset.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:45 pm At my local parkrun, there have been some quite fast times since lockdown. Except one week, when coincidentally all the fast runners didn't turn up. This geezer came first in a time nearly two minutes slower than any other first place time since lockdown (well 1:57) and in a time that would have placed him ninth the following week.

Okay forget Raducanu and Leicester, Gavin's parkrun geezer is definitely the greatest sporting story of all time.

42 to 1 in a two horse race was the biggest upset since David beat Goliath

This wasn't really a single event as such, and arguably not even a sport, but apparently Frankie Dettori's seven winners at Ascot in 1996 had odds of 25,051 to 1. Actually 25,095 to 1 in this article with an estimated true likelihood of 235,834 to 1.

I wonder what odds the bookies would give you on your newborn baby playing for England by their 21st birthday?

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:14 pm I wonder what odds the bookies would give you on your hewborn baby playing for England by their 21st birthday?

Not actually that difficult, especially if they pick a niche activity.

Very few babies are hewborn these days though.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:57 pm Very few babies are hewborn these days though.

You'd probably get good odds on them presenting a game show, those that are.

While we're taking comebacks, Floria Guei anchoring France to gold in the 4x400m at the 2014 European Championships sticks in my memory. I watched it live on the telly at the time and I've watched it back a number of times since and still don't believe she's going to win it until the last moment. Yes, the runners ahead of her were tying up badly at the end but it's still unbelievable to me that she won from that far back.

There's a video here, the anchor leg starts around 2:40:
https://youtu.be/p0GstHO1ZzQ

Fallon Sherrock has just come back from 1-7 to win 11-10 to get to a darts final against men

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:48 pm Fallon Sherrock has just come back from 1-7 to win 11-10 to get to a darts final against men

Admittedly mainly cos her opponent just collapsed and missed many match darts, but she put up a great performance against MvG in the final!!

James Robinson wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:11 am

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:48 pm Fallon Sherrock has just come back from 1-7 to win 11-10 to get to a darts final against men

Admittedly mainly cos her opponent just collapsed and missed many match darts, but she put up a great performance against MvG in the final!!

I'm trying to think of other sports where a woman has matched or better a man.
Im thinking in terms of accuracy sports or maybe gymnastics or figure skating

Susanna Raganelli was a world champion in karting, beating the likes of all time F1 great Ronnie Peterson.

Michele Mouton was an excellent rally driver, but not quite the very best. She was runner up in the 1982 world rally championship though.

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:49 pm

James Robinson wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:11 am

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:48 pm Fallon Sherrock has just come back from 1-7 to win 11-10 to get to a darts final against men

Admittedly mainly cos her opponent just collapsed and missed many match darts, but she put up a great performance against MvG in the final!!

I'm trying to think of other sports where a woman has matched or better a man.
Im thinking in terms of accuracy sports or maybe gymnastics or figure skating

Jamie Chadwick has won two motorsport titles against predominantly male opposition.

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:49 pm
I'm trying to think of other sports where a woman has matched or better a man.
Im thinking in terms of accuracy sports or maybe gymnastics or figure skating

They have their own skating and gymnastics tournaments though don't they? Plus they're not objective competitions, but judged things.

Ben Wilson wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:41 pm
Jamie Chadwick has won two motorsport titles against predominantly male opposition.

Not top level though.

I guess female Jockeys can match the men from time to time certainly over the fences.
Also mind sports like Countdown and Scrabble