First or second? A demythification

[Charlie Reams]

Everyone knows it's better to go second and hence get the choice of two numbers games rather than one, including especially the crucial final numbers game. Right?

Well, maybe not. I discussed this with Damian at CoC and he thought the advantage was over-estimated. Today I finally got round to checking it out.

So I analysed the data from apterous. In a standard 15 round game, the player who goes second wins an astonishing... 49.71% of the time. Even if you eliminate games that involved bots (who, it might be argued, do not make as much of the advantage, or do not react to pressure), the percentage rises to an amazing 50.15%; an advantage so small that it's hardly worth worrying about, and in any case statistically insignificant for a sample of 3717 games. (Probably. Feel free to check this, statisticians.)

In other words, you'd be much better learning your 7s that are never the max, or something, than worrying about going second. Which surprises me, but there you go; the statistics have spoken.

[Ian Dent]

How does Apterous decide who goes first or second?

[Clare Sudbery]

"learning your 7s that are never the max"

I'm intrigued. What is this?

[Charlie Reams]

How does Apterous decide who goes first or second?

If you're in the clique then you go second. Otherwise it's random.

"learning your 7s that are never the max"

I'm intrigued. What is this?

http://www.countdownwiki.com/Fruitful_7s

[Clare Sudbery]

PS I love DEMYTHOLOGIZING.

[Kai Laddiman]

As you know, I don't give a stuff about the advantage of going second. I'd much rather attempt my 'most games in the champion's chair having not sat in the challenger's chair' record.

[Gavin Chipper]

Regardless of the actual outcome of the game, I think only choosing one numbers selection spoils the fun a bit if you like to choose interesting selections, and your opponent is a strict one-from-the-topper. Also, the statistics aren't that surprising, as the game need to be close anyway for the extra numbers game to be in a position to swing it and even then it only makes a difference if the two players actually would pick something different etc.

[David Williams]

Suppose you think one from the top gives you 10% chance of winning the round, 10% chance of losing, and 80% chance of sharing the points. Six small you judge as 40% win, 40% lose, 20% draw. I you're 11 points ahead, one from the top gives you 90% chance of staying there. If you're 11 points behind, six small gives you 40% chance of getting a crucial conundrum. So having the choice is an advantage even though the chances are 50/50 either way.

I don't say it's a big advantage, but it must be an advantage. And I don't exactly follow how it is decided who goes first, but if it's at all like the real game, where the champion goes first, you can expect that the player picking the final numbers is the weaker player.

David

[Charlie Reams]

And I don't exactly follow how it is decided who goes first, but if it's at all like the real game, where the champion goes first, you can expect that the player picking the final numbers is the weaker player.

It's random. I hired Joseph Bolas to toss a coin ten billion times and enter the results into the database.

[Clare Sudbery]

And I don't exactly follow how it is decided who goes first, but if it's at all like the real game, where the champion goes first, you can expect that the player picking the final numbers is the weaker player.

It's random. I hired Joseph Bolas to toss a coin ten billion times and enter the results into the database.

tee hee.

[Michael Wallace]

Interesting stuff, but not that surprising. For two number picks to make a difference you need those numbers to be the right level of difficulty that you can get the points, and your opponent can't - given the level of ability of people on apterous, this is going to be pretty unlikely (I'd've thought). Moreover, it only then makes a difference if the points you gain from the numbers is enough to win you the game, which is only going to happen if you and your opponent are similarly matched on the letters - this in turn makes it seem less likely your skills on the numbers will be sufficiently different to make the right difficulty of numbers (the one that gets you the points, but not them) likely.

There's probably something to be said for if you need the 2 numbers games to win (i.e. you're a bit worse at the letters) then you might be worse at the conundrum to, in which case there's an argument for saying it 'balances out' there, too.

I'd be interested to look at the number game stats, not least to see how many people could be construed as playing 'tactically' with their selections (although it'd be fun to try and infer that).

Also, you did statistics behind my back

[Neil Zussman]

"learning your 7s that are never the max"

I'm intrigued. What is this?

http://www.countdownwiki.com/Fruitful_7s

Is 'batters' really a seven that is never the max? Tabarets doesn't appear on the stemmer. So does that mean the stemmer is wrong, or the Wiki?

[Ian Volante]

"learning your 7s that are never the max"

I'm intrigued. What is this?

http://www.countdownwiki.com/Fruitful_7s

Is 'batters' really a seven that is never the max? Tabarets doesn't appear on the stemmer. So does that mean the stemmer is wrong, or the Wiki?

TABARET is legal. Mass noun maybe? (Dictionary is in another room, meh)

[Jimmy Gough]

Unless I'm missing something, there's no PINTERS + U

[Charlie Reams]

Unless I'm missing something, there's no PINTERS + U

Yeah, there are probably mistakes and omissions in that list. Maybe Corby will share his updated version at some point, he's quite a fan of 7s that are never the max and I believe spent some time learning them all.

[Ben Wilson]

Unless I'm missing something, there's no PINTERS + U

OUP clearly not being as maths-geek friendly as Chambers or Collins...

[Kirk Bevins]

Yeah. I had a list that listed UNRIPEST, not sure how that slipped through the net as it's not in.

As for TABARETS, it's listed on my list as "mass noun plural so beware".

[Clare Sudbery]

"learning your 7s that are never the max"

I'm intrigued. What is this?

http://www.countdownwiki.com/Fruitful_7s

Never the max... not actually true then, as it depends on you having more than 2 vowels in your selection? Or is there a minimum vowel rule? I've often wondered this, as it's never actually stated in the programme (I don't think, then again I am the Mistress Of Not Payng Attention).

[Phil Reynolds]

Never the max... not actually true then, as it depends on you having more than 2 vowels in your selection? Or is there a minimum vowel rule?

You must choose a minimum of 3 vowels and a maximum of 5.

[Clare Sudbery]

Aha. V. useful info, thanks Phil.