c4countdown

I've been a lifelong Labour Supporter and it pains me to say that I find it almost impossible to vote for Labour this time.
Am I wrong ?
I think if Kier Steamer or Jess Phillips was in charge I think Labour would have stood a chance.
But I can see the Conservatives getting a working majority.
The British public using the American blueprint of electing a buffoon based on an unpalatable opposition.

I've had the pleasure of having dinner with Jess and I'm a big fan - but I don't see her as party leader. I think she has an important role as a voice who says what she thinks, and she would be frustrated to be restrained by the necessity of being the voice of the party.

Jeremy Corbin would be a horrible prime minister. You should vote for Jeremy Corbyn instead. He'd be much better.

Seriously though, Corbyn is only unelectable if people don't vote for Labour and if you're not voting for Labour you're essentially voting for the conservatives which makes you a psychopath.

Mark James wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:40 pm Jeremy Corbin would be a horrible prime minister. You should vote for Jeremy Corbyn instead. He'd be much better.

Edited

No.

Yes.

Ian Volante wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:57 pmYes.

Maybe you could elaborate ?

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:33 pm I've been a lifelong Labour Supporter and it pains me to say that I find it almost impossible to vote for Labour this time.
Am I wrong ?

Maybe you could elaborate.

What exactly is it about Corbyn that means that you can't vote for Labour? Is it his policies? If so, which policies? Is it him as a leader? If so, I'd still rather someone that doesn't come across as particularly "dynamic" than a smarmy narcissist, so better the devil you know.

I think if Kier Steamer or Jess Phillips was in charge I think Labour would have stood a chance.

Really? I think they're probably both dickheads.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:33 pm I've been a lifelong Labour Supporter and it pains me to say that I find it almost impossible to vote for Labour this time.
Am I wrong ?

Maybe you could elaborate.

What exactly is it about Corbyn that means that you can't vote for Labour? Is it his policies? If so, which policies? Is it him as a leader? If so, I'd still rather someone that doesn't come across as particularly "dynamic" than a smarmy narcissist, so better the devil you know.

I think if Kier Steamer or Jess Phillips was in charge I think Labour would have stood a chance.

Really? I think they're probably both dickheads.

Marxist anti Semite , terrorist sympathiser ( PLO and IRA ).
for starters
Should have backed Johnson's plan for an election last month.
The Labour Manifesto is fairly palatable , although there is a lot of magic money tree policies.

Maybe you could elaborate why you think Keir Starmer and Jess Phillips are dickheads.

I won't cut my nose off to spite my face by voting for the turncoat Fib Dems.
Not ever likely to forgive them for getting into bed with Cameron for a bit of power but lacking in any principles.

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:15 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:33 pm I've been a lifelong Labour Supporter and it pains me to say that I find it almost impossible to vote for Labour this time.
Am I wrong ?

Maybe you could elaborate.

What exactly is it about Corbyn that means that you can't vote for Labour? Is it his policies? If so, which policies? Is it him as a leader? If so, I'd still rather someone that doesn't come across as particularly "dynamic" than a smarmy narcissist, so better the devil you know.

I think if Kier Steamer or Jess Phillips was in charge I think Labour would have stood a chance.

Really? I think they're probably both dickheads.

Marxist anti Semite , terrorist sympathiser ( PLO and IRA ).
for starters

What exactly do you mean by Marxist, and what is wrong with this? You can't just throw some word around that you've heard. Also terrorist sympathiser and anti-Semite - is this just something you've heard bandied about or is it something you genuinely believe and have proper evidence for?

Should have backed Johnson's plan for an election last month.

Well that wasn't just Corbyn. Labour MPs generally did not back it.

The Labour Manifesto is fairly palatable , although there is a lot of magic money tree policies.

I don't think it's out yet is it?

Maybe you could elaborate why you think Keir Steamer and Jess Phillips are dickheads.

It's Starmer! Anyway, Jess Phillips I generally find very irritating, and there is evidence of her being "professionally offended". Keir Starmer - I don't actually remember much specific off the top of my head (although I do have a general negative feeling that must have come from somewhere), but I might be able to find something if I looked hard enough.

I won't cut my nose off to spite my face by voting for the turncoat Fib Dems.
Not ever likely to forgive them for getting into bed with Cameron for a bit of power but lacking in any principles.

Who do you think you'll vote for? Still Labour in the end as you only find it almost impossible to vote for them? I might not vote for Labour by the way. I'm not a Labour or Corbyn fan particularly, but there's a lot of rubbish spoken about them. The Tories and Johnson are also far far worse, and it's unbelievable that they get away with so much.

I'm a lot older than you so I have seen and read about Corbyn at IRA rallies in the seventies also many meetings with the terrorist Yasser Arafat.
I'm prepared to forgive him for not singing the national anthem.
I admire his principles but not his reasoning.
I will probably abstain my vote or spoil ballot paper

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:08 pm

Ian Volante wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:57 pmYes.

Maybe you could elaborate ?

He's leading one of the country's biggest parties against a bunch of mendacious, self-serving buffoons.

I was looking at odds of who is going to win the election, but (after a quick search admittedly) I couldn't find what I was after. There were odds on which party would have the most seats, odds on each party getting an outright majority, odds on specific minority governments etc. But you need to put it all together, and the simplest market for that is odds on who will be the Prime Minister after the election - Johnson or Corbyn. Sure, it could be someone else, but they exhaust most of the probability between them. Alternatively, maybe even better - party of the Prime Minister after the election. Done. Because that's basically "Who wins the election".

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:28 pm I was looking at odds of who is going to win the election, but (after a quick search admittedly) I couldn't find what I was after. There were odds on which party would have the most seats, odds on each party getting an outright majority, odds on specific minority governments etc. But you need to put it all together, and the simplest market for that is odds on who will be the Prime Minister after the election - Johnson or Corbyn. Sure, it could be someone else, but they exhaust most of the probability between them. Alternatively, maybe even better - party of the Prime Minister after the election. Done. Because that's basically "Who wins the election".

"Who will be Prime Minister after the election" is too ambiguous for a bet. How long after the election? The following day? The following week? What if a minority government struggles on for a month or so?

After the 2010 election, Gordon Brown stayed as PM for a few days while the Lib Dems and Conservatives arranged their coalition, because that had to be done before David Cameron could claim the confidence of the Commons. But nobody would say that Gordon Brown "won the 2010 election" or even that he was "PM after the 2010 election" in any meaningful sense.

Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:47 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:28 pm I was looking at odds of who is going to win the election, but (after a quick search admittedly) I couldn't find what I was after. There were odds on which party would have the most seats, odds on each party getting an outright majority, odds on specific minority governments etc. But you need to put it all together, and the simplest market for that is odds on who will be the Prime Minister after the election - Johnson or Corbyn. Sure, it could be someone else, but they exhaust most of the probability between them. Alternatively, maybe even better - party of the Prime Minister after the election. Done. Because that's basically "Who wins the election".

"Who will be Prime Minister after the election" is too ambiguous for a bet. How long after the election? The following day? The following week? What if a minority government struggles on for a month or so?

After the 2010 election, Gordon Brown stayed as PM for a few days while the Lib Dems and Conservatives arranged their coalition, because that had to be done before David Cameron could claim the confidence of the Commons. But nobody would say that Gordon Brown "won the 2010 election" or even that he was "PM after the 2010 election" in any meaningful sense.

It was definitely a thing last time and during the night Corbyn was favourite for a bit. And besides, by not specifying the bet precisely, I wasn't implying that a betting site wouldn't do so. It can be done.

In 2017 you had "Next Prime Minister" which obviously doesn't do what Gev wants this time as the incumbent is standing.

According to this market Corbyn has about a 37% chance of being next Prime Minister (obviously has some assumptions built in):


Corby is 2.94 or roughly 35% to be next Prime Minister, although he could obviously lose this one and win some future election. Or Labour could win without him at the helm - but those two markets seem to be in rough alignment on his chances.

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:35 pm Corby is 2.94 or roughly 35% to be next Prime Minister

I wondered why he hadn't been on the forum so much recently.

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:35 pm In 2017 you had "Next Prime Minister" which obviously doesn't do what Gev wants this time as the incumbent is standing.

The incumbent was standing last time weren't they?

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:56 pm

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:35 pm In 2017 you had "Next Prime Minister" which obviously doesn't do what Gev wants this time as the incumbent is standing.

The incumbent was standing last time weren't they?

Oh yeah. Who knows then. There must be a market somewhere with the right set of terms and conditions.

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:19 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:56 pm

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:35 pm In 2017 you had "Next Prime Minister" which obviously doesn't do what Gev wants this time as the incumbent is standing.

The incumbent was standing last time weren't they?

Oh yeah. Who knows then. There must be a market somewhere with the right set of terms and conditions.

You'd think. And anyway, it's no different in principle from e.g. Labour minority. That wouldn't happen the instant the election is over either.

There is a general "Prime Minister after the December 2019 General Election" markets around but I can't find any hard and fast rules. I expect that the betting sites will just decide whether they should pay out after the event, in any of Graeme's examples. I don't think they'll be paying out in the case of Corbyn winning an election in 2024, for example, even though that would technically be after the December 2019 election. I guess when they decide who wins they just weigh up the PR damage and lost customer goodwill against the cash they'd keep.

Generally Corbyn is 2-1 which is in line with the above.

If we had the thread "Is Boris Johnson electable as Prime Minister?", the list of things against would be astronomical, and yet somehow the spotlight is still on the credibility of Corbyn. It's fucking mental.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:23 pm If we had the thread "Is Boris Johnson electable as Prime Minister?", the list of things against would be astronomical, and yet somehow the spotlight is still on the credibility of Corbyn. It's fucking mental.

Well ,waddaya waiting for .

Having just watched the film Official Secrets I was going to start a thread on how Tony Blair has escaped a trial as a war criminal.
I will give Corbyn his due , he would never have caved in to Bush jr

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:43 am There is a general "Prime Minister after the December 2019 General Election" markets around but I can't find any hard and fast rules. I expect that the betting sites will just decide whether they should pay out after the event, in any of Graeme's examples. I don't think they'll be paying out in the case of Corbyn winning an election in 2024, for example, even though that would technically be after the December 2019 election. I guess when they decide who wins they just weigh up the PR damage and lost customer goodwill against the cash they'd keep.

Generally Corbyn is 2-1 which is in line with the above.

Seems that the Betfair market has been renamed to "PM at the formation of the first ministry after the General Election" which I guess makes sense.

Worth noting that the odds have moved significantly away from Corbyn in this market, when the Brexit Party stood down their candidates in all CON seats.

No

Jon O'Neill wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:40 pm Worth noting that the odds have moved significantly away from Corbyn in this market, when the Brexit Party stood down their candidates in all CON seats.

Thanks for the heads up though. I managed to get some money on a Conservative majority at 6/4 on Betfair.