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The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am
by Zarte Siempre
IF YOU WISH TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS, PLEASE *PRIVATE* MESSAGE ME YOUR PREDICTIONS. SPEAK IN VAGUE TERMS, OR SMACK TALK HERE BY ALL MEANS, BUT LET’S KEEP THE RESULTS INTERESTING.
After a few betting games on the outcomes of finals with various success rates, and when people can’t actually be sure that someone hasn’t found out a result on the sly, I thought I’d introduce one in advance for you to all have your say on the upcoming CoC. I’ve come up with a format. Unless there is a huge mega hole that I haven’t noticed, I won’t be changing it for your “better” idea, just go with it or don’t.
Here’s how it will work:
We now know the structure for the upcoming CoC – you can plot it through from start to finish with your predictions, but can you get the results right in the process? And furthermore, can you hedge your bets?
For R1, you know who will play who. Simply predict who will win. Each correct answer scores 50 points. Each wrong answer scores 0. You must also predict a margin. The margin points are a bit more complicated, but go with me. If you are 10 points exactly out on the margin, that is exactly 0 points. For each point closer you the points added increases by 1. That’s terribly worded, so I’ll write it out manually. 9 points away = 1 point, 8 points away = 3 points, 7 points away = 6 points, 6 points away = 10 points, up to an exact prediction which earns 55 points – meaning you can score up to 105 points per game.
For being further out than 10, for every point further away between 11 and 40, you lose 1 point, meaning if you were 40 points out on the margin you lose 30 points. After that, each further point you are away, you lose 2 points.
If you predict the wrong winner you can still collect margin points, or more likely, you will still lose margin points. In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win. If you were to predict this for the wrong player, you would still get 55 margin points, cos it’d be a ballsy pick.
From R2 onwards, obviously we don’t the players who will be involved, but you must continue to make predictions based on the results you’ve predicted to date. For instance if you have backed Paul to beat me, and Stephen to beat Tom, you are now predicting Paul v Stephen.
If both players turn out to be involved in that game, perfect.
If only one player is involved in it, then the outcome will still be measured from the perspective of the prediction you made. For instance, if you predict Stephen will beat Paul by 20 points, but he ends up playing Tom – you are still predicting Tom to beat Paul by 20 points. Therefore you may wish to hedge your bets on outcomes where you’re unsure what will happen.
If you have no players involved in a game, your score for that game is automatically a flat -75
If you don’t understand the scoring system... you don’t massively need to – you can just send me your predictions including margins to me privately, and I’ll just work out your scores. Otherwise, you may wish to work out some convoluted tactic to optimise your chances of winning.
You have until the start of the 1st game of CoC FILMS (October 1st) to get your predictions in. Please don’t worry about telling me that you think Paul will beat me – I won’t take it personally! I will be taking part myself and will be sending my predictions to a player who has already made their own. For this reason, no alterations can be made to your predictions once you have sent them in. Be sure before you click send.
Results will be revealed on a day by day basis as they air. No pressure will be placed on anyone (barring me) through finding out what people think
Best of luck!
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:23 am
by Zarte Siempre
For those needing a reminder:
1. JONATHAN WYNN V PHIL DAVIES
2. ANN DIBBEN V JOHN COWEN
3. MATTHEW TASSIER V DOUGIE MACKAY
4. THOMAS CAREY V STEPHEN READ
5. PAUL ERDUNAST V ZARTE SIEMPRE
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK V MARTIN HURST
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS V ANDREW MACLEOD
8. PHILIP ASTON V NOEL MCILVENNY
9. WYNN/DAVIES V ASTON/MCILVENNY
10. DIBBEN/COWEN V HORROCKS/MACLEOD
11. TASSIER/MACKAY V CHAFER-COOK/HURST
12. CAREY/READ V ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE
13. WYNN/DAVIES/ASTON/MCILVENNY V CAREY/READ/ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE
14. DIBBEN/COWEN/HORROCKS/MACLEOD V TASSIER/MACKAY/CHAFER-COOK/HURST
15. WHOEVER'S LEFT
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
by Johnny Canuck
I predict Wynn and Chafer-Cook will get through to the first and second semi-finals, prevailing by a lot of points each time. Then Stewart Holden and Craig Beevers will crash the party and battle it out in the final.
Also, are there two Moles?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm
by Jennifer Steadman
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:10 pm
by Zarte Siempre
Jennifer Steadman wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
I hate the pair of you...
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:11 am
by Tom S
Hi Zarte,
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do I have to state a specific number for the margin, e.g. X beats Y by 9 pts, or can I give a region, e.g. X beats Y by between 5-10 pts?
Thanks.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
by Zarte Siempre
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
by Gavin Chipper
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.
*Well, maybe a little bit!
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:33 am
by Zarte Siempre
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.
*Well, maybe a little bit!
One person sent me a range. One person hasn't even sent me a margin at all... so in comparison, I'm viewing them a bit favourably.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:19 am
by Tom S
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
Thanks-position clarified. Will internally think of a margin, and go for the average.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:54 pm
by Graeme Cole
I sent Zarte a list of my predicted winners and margins for each game. It was decided entirely by random dice rolls. My only goal is not to come last in the prediction game so that at least one person loses to random chance. But at least my entry complied with the rules.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
by Graeme Cole
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am
by Gavin Chipper
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:42 am
by Tom S
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
Would it be rounded up to the nearest whole number?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:46 am
by Thomas Cappleman
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.
49.875, by the triangle number formula applied in the general case.
Or Tom's suggestion of rounding the middle value off.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:00 am
by Zarte Siempre
I've taken it as a round down, as logically it would stand to reason that people are more likely to want to hedge. So in a 5 to 10 - I'll take 7.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:43 pm
by Rhys Benjamin
Controversy in the Countdown studio as Mr Zarte Siempre deliberately lost his crucial conundrum today so as to gain a perfect score in his predictions competition...
I'll take a strictly mathematical approach to this, so my predictions won't be in for a while.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
by Rhys Benjamin
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
(I scored 7 on the last numbers to tie at 68-68, and we missed two conundrums, both of which - both - were cut, giving the impression my GADWINNER solve was not a TB.)
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am
Here’s how it will work:
…
In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.
...
Best of luck!
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm
by Graeme Cole
Elliott Mellor wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am
Here’s how it will work:
…
In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.
...
Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:59 pm
by Noel Mc
Two options:
Go from TV, in which case it won't count as tie break.
Go from studio, then it does count as tie break.
I would be inclined to go from studio
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:19 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am
Here’s how it will work:
…
In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.
...
Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.
It says it goes down as a 0 point margin, which seemed to answer the question to me. Maybe I've just misinterpreted the question.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
by Graeme Cole
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?
I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:31 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?
I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
I'd probably assume it's going to be what happens on TV - what the average viewer sees. I can't see this being a problem though since it's extremely unlikely to happen.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:38 am
by Rhys Benjamin
Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?
I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
Whilst I was running analysises (analyses?) of the CoC contestants I came across a contestant whose TB con was included in their score. As you speculated at the time of my game (that spoilers thread is burnt into my brain!!) does that mean all TB cons are now “in”?
If yes, there may be - and probs are - other cases where the “normal” con has been cut and the first to have a winner is shown.
(I’ve also noticed the editor / continuity department dropped the ball when cutting my first game together since the positioning of my arms jump-cuts!!)
Ultimately, it’s up to Zarte. Hence the question.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:37 am
by Zarte Siempre
Would be scored by studio result, but the chances of this occurring I would say are approximately 1000-1.
In fact if you wish to forfeit all predictions and have the possibility to be declared the winner should this one outcome take place, I would probably accept that.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am
by Owen Carroll
Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:45 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Owen Carroll wrote: ↑Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am
Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?
This isn't Only Connect.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 am
by Zarte Siempre
Last day to get your predictions in!
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:24 am
by Owen Carroll
Just checking Zarte, you got my predictions right?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:09 pm
by L'oisleatch McGraw
My Predictions:-
1. JONATHAN WYNN beats PHIL DAVIES by 42pts.
2. JOHN COWEN beats ANN DIBBEN by 14pts
3. MATTHEW TASSIER beats DOUGIE MACKAY by 61pts
4. THOMAS CAREY beats STEPHEN READ by 7pts
5. PAUL ERDUNAST beats ZARTE SIEMPRE by 28pts
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MARTIN HURST by 10pts
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats ANDREW MACLEOD by 37pts
8. PHILIP ASTON beats NOEL MCILVENNY by 8pts
9. PHILIP ASTON beats JONATHAN WYNN by 18pts
10. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats JOHN COWEN by 12pts
11. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MATTHEW TASSIER by 24pts
12. PAUL ERDUNAST beats THOMAS CAREY by 0pts
13. PAUL ERDUNAST beats PHILIP ASTON by 3pts
14. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats TOM CHAFER-COOK by 7pts
15. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats PAUL ERDUNAST by 0pts
Whatever happens, good luck to everyone... hope ye all have a very enjoyable few days over there!
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm
by Thomas Carey
callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm
by Bradley Horrocks
I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw
A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:55 pm
by Bradley Horrocks
Thomas Carey wrote: ↑Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm
callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
I was laughing at this far more than I should've done.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 pm
by Owen Carroll
Well best of luck to you all tomorrow. I envy you allllllllllllllllllll
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:10 pm
by Owen Carroll
Also, I'll be filling out my application tomorrow
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:25 pm
by L'oisleatch McGraw
Bradley Horrocks wrote: ↑Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm
I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw
A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes
May as well have drama in a final! Let's make it one to remember.
The way I see it, there are a fair number of players who could nick the title...
...and I have a feeling this one is not going to go with seeding. Just a hunch, we'll see how it goes.
Another prediction about this Champion of Champions...
...the long standing game high score record of 146 will finally be beaten.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:14 pm
by L'oisleatch McGraw
So far so good!
I wonder how long this lucky streak will last?
Games 4 and 5 are going to be intense...
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:37 pm
by Rhys Benjamin
I’d have liked to have seen everyone’s individual predictions, a league table, you know, the whole shebang...
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:45 pm
by Thomas Carey
Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:37 pm
I’d have liked to have seen everyone’s individual predictions, a league table, you know, the whole shebang...
All will be revealed at the end. For now: day to day predictions coming up
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:15 pm
by Thomas Carey
DAY TO DAY PREDICTIONS
Only 17 players entered this, somewhat disappointingly (unless Zarte's forgotten anyone else, in which case let me know), which explains some of the nice looking percentages on the spoiler thread. But here we go. Starting off with Jonathan Wynn vs Paul Davies, by all means a fairly predictable contest. Jonathan won by 35, slightly up from the average guess of 31.53 and giving everyone positive points.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Zarte Siempre JW (35) 105 105
1 Tom S JW (35) 105 105
3 Tim Down JW (36) 95 95
4 Zubair Patel JW (38) 78 78
4 Bradley Horrock JW (38) 78 78
6 Gavin Chipper JW (30) 65 65
6 Tom Cappleman JW (30) 65 65
8 Eoin Jackson JW (42) 56 56
9 Jen Steadman JW (43) 53 53
10 Mark Murray JW (25) 50 50
10 Owen Carroll JW (45) 50 50
10 James Robinson JW (25) 50 50
13 James Laverty JW (17) 42 42
13 Rhys Benjamin JW (17) 42 42
15 Toby McDonald JW (15) 40 40
16 Thomas Carey JW (60) 35 35
17 Graeme Cole JW (5) 20 20
Bradley's name was messing up the formatting with its obscene length, so I've lopped off one of his Horrocks.
Next up, a more interesting game, results-wise...
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:42 pm
by Thomas Carey
ANN VS COW MAN
Only 3 of you predicted the surprising upset here, John beating Ann by three despite the average prediction being 13.53 in Ann's favour, and were generously rewarded by the weird scoring system, Zubair in particular storming ahead here. Let's see how tomorrow's more regular Tassier action shapes things.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Zubair Patel JC (8) 65 143
2 Eoin Jackson JC (14) 49 105
2 Tom S AD (7) 0 105
4 Zarte Siempre AD (8) -1 104
5 Toby McDonald JC (12) 51 91
6 Tim Down AD (17) -10 85
7 Bradley Horrock AD (22) -15 63
8 Tom Cappleman AD (15) -8 57
9 Gavin Chipper AD (20) -13 52
10 Rhys Benjamin AD (7) 0 42
11 Jen Steadman AD (21) -14 39
12 Owen Carroll AD (20) -13 37
13 Mark Murray AD (25) -18 32
14 James Laverty AD (22) -15 27
15 James Robinson AD (33) -26 24
16 Thomas Carey AD (22) -15 20
17 Graeme Cole AD (25) -18 2
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:49 pm
by Bradley Horrocks
I'm happy to be a Horrock.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:55 pm
by Thomas Carey
TASS VS DOUGIE
Pretty standard guesses here. Tass of course won with a margin of 18, not far from the weirdly popular guess of 25 or the average of 26.76, although some of the further out guesses have caused some interesting results including Eoin being the first (and definitely not the last) to get the double point penalty thing. At the foot of the table, my stupidly high margin predictions (which sadly don't stop here...) make me currently be losing to Graeme's random chance. Fantastic.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Zubair Patel MT (11) 56 199
2 Tom S MT (15) 78 183
3 Zarte Siempre MT (30) 48 152
4 Tim Down MT (23) 65 150
5 Toby McDonald MT (27) 51 142
6 Bradley Horrock MT (24) 60 123
7 James Laverty MT (19) 95 122
8 Eoin Jackson MT (61) 14 119
9 Tom Cappleman MT (25) 56 113
10 Gavin Chipper MT (25) 56 108
11 James Robinson MT (22) 71 95
12 Owen Carroll MT (25) 56 93
13 Rhys Benjamin MT (2) 44 86
14 Jen Steadman MT (33) 45 84
15 Mark Murray MT (35) 43 75
16 Graeme Cole MT (25) 56 58
17 Thomas Carey MT (53) 25 45
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:36 pm
by Rhys Benjamin
Rhys Benjamin wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:38 amWhilst I was running analysises (analyses?) of the CoC contestants I came across a contestant whose TB con was included in their score. As you speculated at the time of my game (that spoilers thread is burnt into my brain!!) does that mean all TB cons are now “in”?
Was I drunk when I wrote this?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am
by Tom S
Hi Thomas,
I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.
No worries if not,
Tom
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:49 pm
by Thomas Carey
Tom S wrote: ↑Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am
Hi Thomas,
I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.
No worries if not,
Tom
Sure, on it
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:59 pm
by Tom S
Thomas Carey wrote: ↑Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:49 pm
Tom S wrote: ↑Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am
Hi Thomas,
I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.
No worries if not,
Tom
Sure, on it
Cool, I will PM you my predictions. If you doubt the reliability then I am willing to send you the email I had off admin notifying me that I had sent the email. Cheers
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:45 pm
by Rhys Benjamin
Now’s the time when I can go into crazy detail about my predictions:
I did predictions for Series 63 and 64 when I was a lot younger and these were more-or-less correct, so I’d use the same method, which I’m keeping semi-secret, for predicting the winner.
Predicting the margin was a lot harder. I therefore had to work out each contestant’s average pick and then assume that every numbers game would be solvable for the sake of doubt. This therefore gave me a figure for each contestant:
C1’s avg pick x 5 + C2’s avg pick x 5 + 50 = est max
In the case of J Wynn vs P Davies:
42.36 + 38.90 + 50 = 131.26
This then led me to “guess” what the margin would be and whether games would be high or low-scoring.
The drawback to this method is that it really understated some of the margins but given the scoring system I’d prefer understating than overstating.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:23 am
by Graeme Cole
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:35 am
by Thomas Carey
SOME SHIT KID VS STEVIE READ
Not gonna lie, it felt good typing in the minus points for everyone who voted against me. Felt less good when I realised the person who thought I'd do best, and only one point off the actual result, was Graeme's randomiser, which shoots up to 7th place for its generosity. Average margin was 2.76 in Stephen's favour, which makes sense when you consider how fucking close it was (definitely didn't feel like a 19 point win!)
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Tom SSSSSSS TC (5) 46 229
2 Tim Down TC (10) 51 201
3 Zubair Patel SR (6) -15 184
4 James Laverty TC (5) 46 168
5 Eoin Jackson TC (7) 48 167
6 Bradley Horrock TC (1) 42 165
7 Graeme Cole TC (20) 95 153
8 Zarte Siempre SR (10) -19 133
9 Toby McDonald SR (3) -12 130
10 Rhys Benjamin TC (1) 42 128
11 Thomas Carey TC (16) 78 123
12 Tom Cappleman SR (0) -9 104
13 Gavin Chipper SR (10) -19 89
14 Owen Carroll SR (9) -18 75
15 Jen Steadman SR (17) -26 58
16 Mark Murray SR (15) -24 51
17 James Robinson SR (42) -72 23
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:12 am
by Zarte Siempre
Thomas Carey wrote: ↑Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:35 amNot gonna lie, it felt good typing in the minus points for everyone who voted against me.
I just took the sports approach. I never put money on the team I'm rooting for, as disappointment doubles
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:55 pm
by L'oisleatch McGraw
Thinking some more about the CoC and what might happen over the next few days...
...what was great about Dylan's win in the last one was how there was an element of redemption about his win after the unexpected defeat in S69's final.
With that in mind, I'd pick out these players as the most worthy winners of COCXV:-
1. T(h)OM(as) CAREY
2. PHILIP ASTON
3. MATTHEW TASSIER
4. BRADLEY HORROCKS
Thomas is clearly (no offence intended
) the Dylan Taylor of the tournament. A 900 club alumni and the #1 seed for his series who was toppled earlier than expected... one round earlier than Dylan in fact, which would make a Carey CoC win that bit more gratifying.
Philip had the misfortune to come up against a formidable opponent not once but twice... and even with that, he almost won his series. If they were to meet again in the semi-finals of this tournament, it'd have to be third time lucky in what might be Countdown's greatest grudge match of all time.
You could easily argue that there is no "hard luck" angle for either of Matthew or Bradley, but considering both players got within a crucial conundrum of winning a series, their lists of "if onlys" are sure to be more poignant than those of the remaining 12 competitors.
..................................
If it is not to be a redemption tale like COCXIV, the next best outcome, imo, would be a "shock and awe" campaign like the 30th Birthday Championships became. In that, Conor Travers cemented his name among the all-time greats of the game. An interesting stat is that there has NEVER been a max game in a COC to date. The 30th birthday event provided no less than FIVE, two of which came in consecutive games (and three of which came from Conor).
Given that he has the 2nd highest all-time Octototal, Zarte is the logical front runner to "pull a Conor", or to come in some way close to such an impossibly high standard. Though pretty much all of the players, on their day, have the potential to bring the wow factor. Who knows? Perhaps we'll get the redemption story and the shock and awe display all in one?!
All I know for sure is that Countdown has, once again, become the most essential viewing on TV!
Good luck to all the remaining players.
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:48 am
by Zubair Patel
Thomas Carey wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:55 pm
TASS VS DOUGIE
Pretty standard guesses here. Tass of course won with a margin of 18, not far from the weirdly popular guess of 25 or the average of 26.76, although some of the further out guesses have caused some interesting results including Eoin being the first (and definitely not the last) to get the double point penalty thing. At the foot of the table, my stupidly high margin predictions (which sadly don't stop here...) make me currently be losing to Graeme's random chance. Fantastic.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Zubair Patel MT (11) 56 199
2 Tom S MT (15) 78 183
3 Zarte Siempre MT (30) 48 152
4 Tim Down MT (23) 65 150
5 Toby McDonald MT (27) 51 142
6 Bradley Horrock MT (24) 60 123
7 James Laverty MT (19) 95 122
8 Eoin Jackson MT (61) 14 119
9 Tom Cappleman MT (25) 56 113
10 Gavin Chipper MT (25) 56 108
11 James Robinson MT (22) 71 95
12 Owen Carroll MT (25) 56 93
13 Rhys Benjamin MT (2) 44 86
14 Jen Steadman MT (33) 45 84
15 Mark Murray MT (35) 43 75
16 Graeme Cole MT (25) 56 58
17 Thomas Carey MT (53) 25 45
Sorry, Tom! Same goes to the others I predicted against - lot of it might have been just trying to go against the tide. Nothing personal! (I don't think so anyway)
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:00 am
by Thomas Carey
Sorry about the wait. Had all the data on my laptop, only put the ones I thought I needed on my phone and ended up extending a day trip into 5 days. From now on they'll all be posted on time. Anyway, without further ado, the big one.
SMALL PAUL VS OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH ZARTE SIEMPRE
As I said on the other thing, 53% of you predicted a win for Zarte, but the average margin was 2.82 in favour of Paul. Most guesses were of course very close cause this was literally a coin toss, and didn't lose too much if anything thanks to Z's 8 point win. Most of the larger margins were in Paul's favour and beaned a few people including Zarte himself. For the first time in a while it's fairly tight at the top, with random Graeme moving up to THIRD. Magic of the COC eh?
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Tim Down ZS (5) 78 279
2 James Laverty ZS (7) 95 263
3 Graeme Cole ZS (5) 78 231
4 Tom Ssssss PE (5) -3 226
5 Rhys Benjamin ZS (3) 65 193
6 Thomas Carey ZS (3) 65 188
7 Zubair Patel PE (17) -15 169
8 Bradley Horrock PE (5) -3 162
9 Owen Carroll ZS (10) 86 161
10 Tom Cappleman ZS (0) 53 157
11 Eoin Jackson PE (28) -26 141
12 Toby McDonald PE (1) 1 131
13 Jen Steadman ZS (4) 71 129
13 Mark Murray ZS (5) 78 129
15 Zarte Siempre PE (13) -11 122
16 Gavin Chipper PE (1) 1 90
17 James Robinson PE (20) -18 5
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:26 am
by Thomas Carey
THE LESS INTERESTING SERIES WINNER BATTLE
Tom won this by 40, way up from the average guess of just over 21. This is a nice cool multiple of 5, and people like to guess them for some reason which made data entry pretty neat. Most people actually lost margin points for not thinking he'd win by that much, but the round number also meant that Robbo and T-Cap join Zarte and Tom S in the exclusive group of people who have got a prediction dead on, although one of them stays in last place. A fairly predictable result meant only one 'person' took a hit, and unfortunately got proper slammed.
Also, fitting that Tom winning has clustered the Toms in this near the top \o/
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Tim Down TCC (22) 42 321
2 James Laverty TCC (12) 32 295
3 Thomas Carey TCC (41) 95 283
4 Tom Ssssss TCC (20) 40 266
5 Tom Cappleman TCC (40) 105 262
6 Rhys Benjamin TCC (11) 31 224
7 Owen Carroll TCC (30) 50 211
8 Zubair Patel TCC (19) 39 208
9 Bradley Horrock TCC (22) 42 204
10 Mark Murray TCC (45) 65 194
11 Jen Steadman TCC (23) 43 172
12 Graeme Cole MH (15) -60 171
12 Eoin Jackson TCC (10) 30 171
14 Toby McDonald TCC (12) 32 163
15 Zarte Siempre TCC (11) 31 153
16 Gavin Chipper TCC (15) 35 125
17 James Robinson TCC (40) 105 110
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:33 am
by Thomas Carey
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH [...] BRADLEY HORROCKS vs andrew macleod
78 points. 78 fucking points. What the hell was I thinking. You let me down here, Bradley. Imagine getting negative points with a correct winner. Absolute shambles. Smh. Actual result was 24, very close to the average of just over 26, which would probably be even closer if it wasn't for that big old 78. Seventy eight.
Funnily enough the person with the best guess was someone with a very similar name to the winner, it's Bradley Horrock.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Tim Down BH (19) 65 386
2 James Laverty BH (16) 53 348
3 Tom Ssssss BH (30) 60 326
4 Tom Cappleman BH (40) 44 306
5 Zubair Patel BH (26) 86 294
6 Mark Murray BH (25) 95 289
7 Thomas Carey BH (78) -8 275
7 Bradley Horrock BH (20) 71 275
9 Owen Carroll BH (30) 60 271
10 Rhys Benjamin BH (4) 40 264
11 Toby McDonald BH (30) 60 223
12 Eoin Jackson BH (37) 47 218
13 Jen Steadman BH (39) 45 217
14 Zarte Siempre BH (40) 44 197
15 Gavin Chipper BH (10) 46 171
16 Graeme Cole AM (5) -19 152
17 James Robinson BH (5) 41 151
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:51 am
by Thomas Carey
who lives in a pineapple under the sea? PHILIP ASTON vs true English patriot NOEL MCILVENNY
As we saw, Philip won by 14, just 0.71 above the average margin. Most of the rest is the same as the last couple - me guessing a stupidly high margin, Graeme going dreadfully wrong, etc. Jen gets the 5th bang-on prediction of the lot, while Tim goes further ahead. After the first round of games me, Lav, Rhys, Eoin and Tim have called 7/8 of the games, and nobody's done all 8.
Code: Select all
Position Name Prediction Points Total Points
1 Tim Down PA (23) 51 437
2 James Laverty PA (24) 50 398
3 Tom Ssssss PA (20) 60 386
4 Tom Cappleman PA (10) 71 377
5 Bradley Horrock PA (15) 95 370
6 Zubair Patel PA (18) 71 365
7 Rhys Benjamin PA (11) 78 342
8 Mark Murray PA (5) 51 340
9 Jen Steadman PA (14) 105 322
10 Owen Carroll PA (30) 44 315
11 Thomas Carey PA (38) 36 311
12 Toby McDonald PA (16) 86 309
13 Zarte Siempre PA (12) 86 283
14 Eoin Jackson PA (8) 60 278
15 Gavin Chipper PA (15) 95 266
16 James Robinson PA (8) 60 211
17 Graeme Cole NM (45) -68 84
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:09 am
by L'oisleatch McGraw
Thomas Carey wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:51 amme, Lav, Rhys, Eoin and Tim have called 7/8 of the games
Margins are a bitch.
So, what happens with the wrong predictions in the next round?
Does Zarte now automatically take Paul's place in my remaining predictions, or is there an ongoing penalty for getting the first result wrong?
Re: The CoC Predictions Game
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:32 am
by Rhys Benjamin
It’s in the OP.
I just wish I hadn’t understated the margins... maybe I should use a different margin method next time.
The Appropriate Result Statistics Equation (ARSE) is still working, despite one wrong result so far... I’m quitely confident because it will just take one game where I get the winner against the rest of ya and then I’m laughing.