c4countdown

So far so good, but what happens next?!

Your seeding is your own subjective seeding, mind, but otherwise good. Luke Johnson-Davies would almost definitely be the number 1 seed if there was seeding.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:38 pm Your seeding is your own subjective seeding, mind, but otherwise good. Luke Johnson-Davies would almost definitely be the number 1 seed if there was seeding.

Be that as it may, the listed #1 seed should progress to the semis as expected.
The most likely remaining upset might come from #11.
Final could be #11 vs #1 or #3.

It seems rather unusual for a CoC, and particularly one containing players of this calibre, that the closest any player has gotten to a max game is -11 (Luke). I'd have expected at least one of the 8 games to be within 5pts.

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:13 pm It seems rather unusual for a CoC, and particularly one containing players of this calibre, that the closest any player has gotten to a max game is -11 (Luke). I'd have expected at least one of the 8 games to be within 5pts.

The -11 was 13 max rounds and an unsolved conundrum, I'd say that's pretty close

Steve Hyde wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:34 pm The -11 was 13 max rounds and an unsolved conundrum, I'd say that's pretty close

Yeah, of course you're right. The performances have been mighty.
But I would like to see a side by side comparison of how close to max games players came in previous Rd1s of CoCs.
If -11 is indeed the furthest from a Rd1 max... then I reckon that would be strong argument that this particular batch are facing the toughest CoC conundrums ever set.

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:35 pm

So far so good, but what happens next?!

Anyway I think most of those games will go according to your seedings. Ahmed v Luke is the one I'm most excited by. James v Adam actually is likely to be close too because Adam's improved so much. But I predict Sam and Elliott to go through anyway.

Before filming, I estimated roughly:
Florence 30/70 Sam
Adam 50/50 James
Luke 20/80 Ahmed
Elliott 90/10 Me

Not sure how Sam ever got seeded as high as 2 in your list, Eoin, ahead of Elliott who should easily be the top non-champion, and Luke who beat him in the final as the number 1 seed there. But for the record, this is what I consider the most realistic seedings to be if they did use seedings:

Champions (series points in brackets) (Eoin's seedings in second brackets)

1. Luke Johnson-Davies (1384) (6)
2. Tom Stevenson (1366) (4)
3. James Haughton (1328) (11)
4. Ahmed Mohamed (1302) (1)
5. Dan Byrom (1251) (8)
6. Dinos Sfyris (1242) (9)
7. Adam Latchford (1014) (16)

Beaten finalists

8. Elliott Mellor (1373) (3)
9. Sam Cappleman-Lynes (1279) (2)
10. Ed Byrne (1272) (5)
11. Matt O'Connor (1250) (10)
12. Florence Cappleman-Lynes (1172) (7)
13. Martin May (1127) (14)

Beaten semi-finalists

14. Stu Harkness (1097) (12)
15. Leo Smith (1043) (13)
16. Steve Hyde (989) (15)

If any sort of "manual override" were to happen, it would likely be only in the case of Elliott Mellor who looks a bit out of position at number 8. But even then it would seem a bit of a fudge to do it. The only other person who one might consider to be out of position is Adam Latchford who improved over his time so whose scores don't really reflect how good he is. And it would look worse to bump a series champion down than to a bump a non-champion up. None of the other players have a big enough difference between scores and how far they reached to even consider.

By the way I see Elliott as favourite for the tournament. Ahmed and Luke have to play each other so this reduces the chances for each of them. Dan is a great player obviously but Elliott is definite favourite in that.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:18 pm By the way I see Elliott as favourite for the tournament. Ahmed and Luke have to play each other so this reduces the chances for each of them. Dan is a great player obviously but Elliott is definite favourite in that.

It's the luck of the draw, yes, but my three tips to win are all in the same half, so it's not entirely unlikely someone like Adam could win it.

By the way, in terms of the supposed mismatch between the halves of the draw, had Tom made it through it would have looked less unbalanced, as he would be the number 2 seed (even in Eoin's made-up system he'd be number 4). Both 2 and 3 are in that side of the draw, even if skill level doesn't exactly match this seeding system.

Gevin... the seeding is robust.
Though, I certainly should have gone with my instinct to seed Tom and Elliott lower.

Rationale:-
1. Tom hasn't been properly tested yet. And the pressure of being hero-worshipped (by the presenters, the fans and the press) as the greatest thing since sliced tabbouleh, is bound to mess with anyone's psychology going into a pressure game against a plucky underdog who has shown they have a steely resolve.
2. Elliott has a proven track record of someone who, while talented, is not good under pressure. He bottles it. Rd3 today was a classic example of that trait.

Even though the red flag was there since the S80 finals performances, I still consider today's the biggest tourney upset since Tom v Adam. Fair play to Dan. That was a most excellent time to defy these odds: https://www.apterous.org/headtohead.php ... on=summary

Just for the record, I felt as though I almost played as well as I could have on the day, though I have probably spotted Titanic, Yawniest and Benzoate in the past. However, I didn't feel the pressure or nerves going into it. There were people who had high expectations for me to do well in the CoC, but I wasn't fussed about those expectations, because my primary focus was to have fun and see what happened from there.

The only iota of pressure I felt was during the final numbers round when I couldn't bet my life that 617 was 8 away from 625!

Overall, Adam had the upper hand both in terms of play, and strategy.

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:09 amBut I predict Sam and Elliott to go through anyway.

This aged well.

I think Sam would have been a match for anyone, but playing your spouse put him in a difficult position

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:11 am I think Sam would have been a match for anyone, but playing your spouse put him in a difficult position

Maybe but I don't think we really ever saw his Apterous form on TV. From the limited sample, I wouldn't know he'd got much better.

Sam is a feminist and would like to see more female representation on CD.
It is not a massive surprise he lost that match.