COOT IV Odds

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 5:58 pm

These are the current tournament odds being offered by Paddy Power:

Evs Julian Fell
7-4 Paul Howe
7-2 Damian Eadie
4-1 Kirk Bevins
8-1 Ben Wilson
8-1 Jason Cullen
8-1 Martin Gardner
10-1 Rich Priest
12-1 Richard Brittain
25-1 Dinos Syfris
40-1 Karen Pearson

Jon O'Neill · Post by **Jon O'Neill** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:10 pm

I'll have a grand on Corby at 6, and a sneaky tenner on RB at 16.

Jon Corby · Post by **Jon Corby** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:17 pm

Ginger Jono wrote:I'll have a grand on Corby at 6, and a sneaky tenner on RB at 16.

Fifty gees on Howe.

JimBentley · Post by **JimBentley** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:39 pm

Corby and the Kirkulator are the smart bets there, I think. A pony on each of them!

I'm not completely confident either will actually win it, but 6/1 is good value.

Ben Pugh · Post by **Ben Pugh** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:56 pm

Fiver on Paul.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:59 pm

18-1 Martin Gardner
60-1 Jason Cullen

Why is there such a huge gap between an 18-1 player and the 60-1 players? I think 33-1 would be far more flattering and realistic

. Anyway, I love an outsider

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:00 pm

Twenty on Julian

. Settled

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:18 pm

jasoncullen wrote:
18-1 Martin Gardner
60-1 Jason Cullen
Why is there such a huge gap between an 18-1 player and the 60-1 players?

Well, that happens quite commonly actually. To give an example, for the outright winner of the Premiership next year, Paddy Power are offering Arsenal at 5-1, Liverpool at 7-1, and then suddenly Tottenham at 66-1. Now, Tottenham are looking a pretty good team under Juande Ramos, but the chances of them actually winning the League are very slim given the abundance of competiton around. Likewise, you're a good player Jason, but, to give you an idea of the level of competition in this tournament, amongst the people rated between 12-1 and 18-1 there are 2 series winners, 1 finalist and 1 semi-finalist.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:24 pm

Fair dos mate

. I was only joking

. I don't mind being the underdog because odds can be defied like when greece were 80-1 when they won euro 2004

But anything beyond the round of 16 stage is a bonus to me as I don't expect to do well.

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:40 am

Richard Brittain wrote:These are the current tournament odds being offered by Paddy Power:

60-1 Jason Cullen
60-1 Matt Coates
60-1 Dinos Syfris
60-1 Karen Pearson

I'm soooo offended by this!

No, not on my own account (I have zilch chance of even progressing to the next round let alone winning) but on behalf of the other three players, all of whom have a far better record than me. I agree that they should be on much shorter odds.

Julian Fell · Post by **Julian Fell** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:13 am

D'oh, I think your odds are a bit wrong-headed Richard, putting me as favourite despite having not played for nearly 4 years, being 16th in Charlie's rankings and very nearly being beaten by Jon Stitcher the last time I played (in September 2004)... was kind of hoping I'd be seen as a dangerous outsider rather than favourite

I'd better not name names for fear of offending (or giving extra motivation to!) those I leave out, but there are three people on that list who seriously, if I was playing them, I wouldn't expect to win (though I'd certainly do my best), and at least one other who I'd be very wary of.

Anyway Richard, expect an angry post from Gevin saying that you've completely ruined the competition because posting odds is something which the eventual winner always does

Charlie Reams · Post by **Charlie Reams** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:52 am

Julian wrote:being 16th in Charlie's rankings

You're still on 5 wins from 5. Lies, damned lies etc

Julian Fell · Post by **Julian Fell** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:30 am

Just as well you couldn't update your ratings a week or two earlier Charlie, otherwise I would've had to play qualifiers for COOT... I wouldn't even have been one of the 8 seeds, yet people have me down as favourite

I have a decent record in the games I've played (most of which don't count towards the ratings btw), but the standard of play has come on in leaps and bounds since I last competed... it's a bit like, if Sampras was to suddenly decide to come out of retirement and play Wimbledon next year, would everyone say he's the favourite, ahead of Federer, Nadal etc.

Anyway I'm looking forward to playing again after such a long gap, and we'll see what happens, but I think this 'favourite' assessment is a bit misguided

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:20 am

OK, I've updated the odds and made some minor adjustments, and will continue to do so as the tournament progresses. Karen, I wasn't really sure how good you were/are to be honest, but since you're convinced you're the worst player here, I've put Cullen, Coates and Syfris up a bit, as on reflection 60-1 may have been a little harsh on them.

I hope no-one is offended by these odds, it is only a little game afterall! But putting pressure of expectation on the top competitors certainly was intended, in the hope that it will cause them to lose. Julian, if you're sure you're really not that good, then it's up to you to prove it.

I will also be offering odds on the Plate competition when the starting line-up is sorted.

James Hurrell · Post by **James Hurrell** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:32 pm

Surely the loss of Corby towards the top of the list would bring the odds down now on the others?? Or is this betting not the interactive type?

Shame the draw produced this match up. I reckon a Howe v Corby match would make a worthy final.

Dinos Sfyris · Post by **Dinos Sfyris** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:09 pm

Karen Pearson wrote:I have zilch chance of even progressing to the next round let alone winning.

Nonsense. I've been impressed by a few of your beaters such as ORMOLU and MULATTO. So I'll stick £50 on Miss Karen, and if she wins it'll pay for my tuition fees next year!

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:42 pm

James Hurrell wrote:Surely the loss of Corby towards the top of the list would bring the odds down now on the others??

Yeah, you're right, but I couldn't be bothered to give all those people fractional odds, because Corby's elimination would only shorten everyone else's odds by about 0.05 or 0.10 (and Paul Howe's by about 0.25). I could change them to decimal odds but can't be bothered to start messing round with them in minute detail; it's not as though these odds were stringently calculated in the first place.

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:06 pm

dinos_the_chemist wrote:
Karen Pearson wrote:I have zilch chance of even progressing to the next round let alone winning.
Nonsense. I've been impressed by a few of your beaters such as ORMOLU and MULATTO. So I'll stick £50 on Miss Karen, and if she wins it'll pay for my tuition fees next year!

For goodness sake, save your money Dinos!!! I happen to know a number of obscure words but that doesn't mean I can spot them on a regular basis. I only got LEOPARD today a nano-second before DC mentioned it.

I tell you what though, if I win the whole tournament, I'll personally pay your tuition fees for next year!!!

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:12 am

Updated. A massive leap by Jason Cullen! I admit now, after their recent performances, Jason Cullen and Matt Coates should have been much shorter than 60-1 or 40-1 and much closer to the main pack. I've shortened Dinos' odds too because he will probably now go and mutilate Damian Eadie.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:21 am

It would be good to see you do match betting too to see who you think the favourite for one particular game is

For the remaining games I would say,

Kirk Bevins 4/7 Richard Brittain 6/4 Draw* 25/1
Julian Fell 1/25 Karen Pearson 25/1 Draw 16/1
Damian Eadie 4/7 Dinos Syfris 7/4 Draw 25/1

*The draw means that the scores are tied after 15 rounds and a second crucial conundrum is required*

Please to do not be offended by the odds posted above as its just a bit of fun. Plus, a number of outsiders have upset the odds so far

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:26 am

ooh I've dropped from 10-1 to 8-1 in literally 15 minutes. You must have had an influx of bets on me

. Next you will be suspending the betting

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:34 am

Yeah. I think these odds are quite reasonable now.

As for match betting, I'll say..

3-5 Kirk Bevins vs. Richard Brittain 3-2

1-2 Damian Eadie vs. Dinos Syfris 2-1

Although I really have no idea what form these people are in; these odds just come off the top of my head.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:38 am

Richard Brittain wrote:Yeah. I think these odds are quite reasonable now.

As for match betting, I'll say..

3-5 Kirk Bevins vs. Richard Brittain 3-1

1-2 Damian Eadie vs. Dinos Syfris 4-1

Although I really have no idea what form these people are in; these odds just come off the top of my head.

I think these odds are fairly big for a two-horse race! For instance, Kirk vs you is like Richard Gasquet vs Andy Murray and the odds for them were

4/6 Murray 11/10 Gasquet

So a "hard to call" match should never have an outsider of more than 2/1 IMO and my uncle is a bookie

I would certainly take Dinos at 4/1 to beat Damian because I know Dinos is a much improved player since he was on the show

Richard Brittain · Post by **Richard Brittain** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:40 am

OK. I tell you what, you give us the odds.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:51 am

My uncle told me he has lost a bit of money on the tennis this year because of the number of "generous" odds he was giving in match betting on outsiders beating hot favourites

Examples:
Jie Zheng beating Ana Ivanovic (1) 9/2
Marat Safin beating Novak Djokovic (3) 7/1

Thats my point about big odds in 2-way matches coming to haunt the bookie

Dinos Sfyris · Post by **Dinos Sfyris** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:55 am

jasoncullen wrote:I would certainly take Dinos at 4/1 to beat Damian because I know Dinos is a much improved player since he was on the show

Cheers! You too

What do you reckon? Us 2 in the final?

I'd be lucky to beat Damian in a single round on Saturday.

JimBentley · Post by **JimBentley** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 4:36 pm

Richard Brittain wrote:1-2 Damian Eadie vs. Dinos Syfris 2-1

Over-round 100%. 0% edge. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

Less cryptically, I mean that you've built no profit into your odds. If I bet ten quid on Damian and five quid on Dinos, I couldn't lose (granted, I couldn't win either, I would always end up even). That's a trivial example, but it does mean that assuming a normal pattern of betting across the whole market, you wouldn't make any money.

Martin Gardner · Post by **Martin Gardner** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:07 pm

Richard Brittain wrote:These are the current tournament odds being offered by Paddy Power:

Evs Julian Fell
7-4 Paul Howe
7-2 Damian Eadie
4-1 Kirk Bevins
8-1 Ben Wilson
8-1 Jason Cullen
8-1 Martin Gardner
10-1 Rich Priest
12-1 Richard Brittain
25-1 Dinos Syfris
40-1 Karen Pearson

Evens has to be such a bad price on Julian Fell. There are still 10 people left in the tournament after all, from that lot I think I'd put my money on Damian.

Martin

JimBentley · Post by **JimBentley** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:30 pm

Martin Gardner wrote:Evens has to be such a bad price on Julian Fell. There are still 10 people left in the tournament after all

Indeed, and in the interests of offending everyone still involved, I'd be quoting something like:

5/4 Paul
2/1 Julian
7/2 Kirk
6/1 Damian
25/1 Ben, Martin, Rich P.
33/1 Jason, Richard B.
66/1 Dinos
500/1 Karen

Sorry, Karen

Damian E · Post by **Damian E** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:23 am

Evens has to be such a bad price on Julian Fell. There are still 10 people left in the tournament after all, from that lot I think I'd put my money on Damian.

Martin

Hmm - i don't know about that. There's a tendency with these online games to throw in crazily difficult conundrums whenever i play - and the maths side of things, as much as i can do the games, i don't particularly like them. I have also never studied word lists, and given that my game is on Sat night, it's highly likely i'll be accompanied by a beer or two - so in essence, the level of seriousness required to win this sort of thing isn't really my bag.

That said, i'll be trying my hardest of course. I'm just getting my excuses in early. In a strange way, i'll be torn between Dinos and Davros (you do realise its the final Doctor Who on Saturday !!). Amazing similarities in their appearance also.

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:32 am

jimbentley wrote:
Martin Gardner wrote:Evens has to be such a bad price on Julian Fell. There are still 10 people left in the tournament after all
Indeed, and in the interests of offending everyone still involved, I'd be quoting something like:

5/4 Paul
2/1 Julian
7/2 Kirk
6/1 Damian
25/1 Ben, Martin, Rich P.
33/1 Jason, Richard B.
66/1 Dinos
500/1 Karen

Sorry, Karen

Absolutely no offence taken Jim. To be honest, if I'd realised that only the elite players were going to enter, I probably wouldn't have entered. Where are all the other 'regular' players? Maybe we should have a separate tournament for those of us who aren't that brilliant?

Charlie Reams · Post by **Charlie Reams** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:15 am

Karen Pearson wrote:Maybe we should have a separate tournament for those of us who aren't that brilliant?

There's a repercharge tournament for that.

Damian E · Post by **Damian E** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:23 am

There's a repercharge tournament for that.

REPECHAGE.

Were you serious about applying?

Charlie Reams · Post by **Charlie Reams** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 12:03 pm

Damian E wrote:
There's a repercharge tournament for that.
REPECHAGE.

Were you serious about applying?

If that word comes up, I'll eat Joseph Bolas.

Damian E · Post by **Damian E** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 12:11 pm

Charlie Reams wrote:
Damian E wrote:
There's a repercharge tournament for that.
REPECHAGE.

Were you serious about applying?
If that word comes up, I'll eat Joseph Bolas.

That's a whole new programme..........

Joseph Bolas · Post by **Joseph Bolas** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 12:53 pm

Charlie Reams wrote:
Damian E wrote:
There's a repercharge tournament for that.
REPECHAGE.

Were you serious about applying?
If that word comes up, I'll eat Joseph Bolas.

If thats how you get your jollies, so be it

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:37 pm

Julian Fell 1/25 Karen Pearson 33/1 Draw 16/1
Friday 4th July
Time = 8pm (subject to change)

As there is no value for a Julian victory against Karen tonight I am giving odds for the score margin that Julian or Karen wins by

. The bold type is the margin of the victory by points

These are;

Julian Margin Karen
33/1 1-10 50/1
25/1 11-20 66/1
14/1 21-30 100/1
4/1 31-40 150/1
7/2 41-50 200/1
2/1 50 + 500/1

Again this is a bit of fun so don't be offended by these odds (especially Karen!)

Place bets here

. Betting is suspended at 19:55 tonight

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:00 pm

jasoncullen wrote:
Julian Fell 1/25 Karen Pearson 33/1 Draw 16/1
Friday 4th July
Time = 8pm (subject to change)
As there is no value for a Julian victory against Karen tonight I am giving odds for the score margin that Julian or Karen wins by . The bold type is the margin of the victory by points

These are;

Julian Margin Karen
33/1 1-10 50/1
25/1 11-20 66/1
14/1 21-30 100/1
4/1 31-40 150/1
7/2 41-50 200/1
2/1 50 + 500/1

Again this is a bit of fun so don't be offended by these odds (especially Karen!)

Place bets here . Betting is suspended at 19:55 tonight

Oh sod it! I was going to be sober for tonight's game but I think I may as well have a drink after all!

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:09 pm

Oh sod it! I was going to be sober for tonight's game but I think I may as well have a drink after all!

.
I will be hosting your game Karen so I think a drink would be best afterwards to drown your sorrows or to celebrate an unlikely victory

Damian E · Post by **Damian E** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:18 pm

Good on you Karen.

Don't be intimidated, just forget you are playing Julian, you are playing against yourself.

When the letters come out, spit out what you have, and if the DC brigade find longer, then that's okay. Look at the longer words they found..........should you have spotted any of them.........in other words, would you kick yourself for missing them, or would you simply say 'ah....i'll try and remember that for next time'.

If it helps, try to picture Julian being totally naked on the other side of cyberspace. It makes things far easier to cope with.

Play against yourself, set yourself a target score before the game starts and see how it goes. The difference in abilities doesnt matter, just have fun and where possible throw the odd insult or two their way. Show them who's boss. Between you and me, i think 90% of them are virgins, but lets just keep that our secret.

PS - or maybe you could take 45% of them and i'll take the other

PPS - so long as i dont get RIchard Brittain.

PPPS - or Kirk Bevins.

Jon Corby · Post by **Jon Corby** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:27 pm

Damian E wrote:If it helps, try to picture Julian being totally naked on the other side of cyberspace. It makes things far easier to cope with.

If you just ask, Julian will usually put his webcam on so you don't even have to imagine

Damian E · Post by **Damian E** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:29 pm

Ask?
I had to beg last time.

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:51 pm

Damian E wrote: Between you and me, i think 90% of them are virgins, but lets just keep that our secret.

PS - or maybe you could take 45% of them and i'll take the other

PPS - so long as i dont get RIchard Brittain.

PPPS - or Kirk Bevins.

You mean you actually want Jono then??? Worrying!!

Julian Fell · Post by **Julian Fell** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 5:29 pm

James Pearson · Post by **James Pearson** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 6:07 pm

Go Karen Go!!

Surely well worth a flutter - anyone want my £10??

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 6:11 pm

James Pearson wrote:Go Karen Go!!

Surely well worth a flutter - anyone want my £10??

Get off my forum!!!!

Husbands not allowed!!

And stop wasting our hard-earned cash!

JimBentley · Post by **JimBentley** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:13 pm

jasoncullen wrote:Julian Margin Karen
33/1 1-10 50/1
25/1 11-20 66/1
14/1 21-30 100/1
4/1 31-40 150/1
7/2 41-50 200/1
2/1 50 + 500/1

You're a generous bookie, Jason, and there ain't many of them about. I know the book's closed now, but if I'd bet as follows...

Julian by 1-10 points (33/1): £29413, returns £1000042
Julian by 11-20 points (25/1): £38463, returns £1000038
Julian by 21-30 points (14/1): £66668, returns £1000020
Julian by 31-40 points (4/1): £200001, returns £1000005
Julian by 41-50 points (7/2): £222223, returns £1000003
Julian by 50+ points (2/1): £333334, returns £1000002

Karen by 1-10 points (50/1): £19609, returns £1000059
Karen by 11-20 points (66/1): £14926, returns £1000042
Karen by 21-30 points (100/1): £9902, returns £1000102
Karen by 31-40 points (150/1): £6624, returns £1000224
Karen by 41-50 points (200/1): £4976, returns £1000176
Karen by 50+ points (500/1): £1997, returns £1000497

...then I'd be about £52,000 up now, no matter what the outcome. Over-round 94.8% - you're giving money away!

Kirk Bevins · Post by **Kirk Bevins** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:37 pm

Karen Pearson wrote:
jimbentley wrote:
Martin Gardner wrote:Evens has to be such a bad price on Julian Fell. There are still 10 people left in the tournament after all
Indeed, and in the interests of offending everyone still involved, I'd be quoting something like:

5/4 Paul
2/1 Julian
7/2 Kirk
6/1 Damian
25/1 Ben, Martin, Rich P.
33/1 Jason, Richard B.
66/1 Dinos
500/1 Karen

Sorry, Karen
Absolutely no offence taken Jim. To be honest, if I'd realised that only the elite players were going to enter, I probably wouldn't have entered. Where are all the other 'regular' players? Maybe we should have a separate tournament for those of us who aren't that brilliant?

I'm a "regular" player Karen! A lot of us are regular. Apart from Jono. He hasn't been taking his fibre.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:50 pm

Julian by 21-30 points (14/1): £66668, returns £1000020

The final score was 101-80 to Julian

Well done Jim your prediction was right

. In total you placed £954,136 in bets and have received £1,000,020. Therefore, you have earned a profit of £45,884.

However, because you placed these bets out of time, none of your bets are applicable and you earn nothing

.

I will be wary of being too generous in the future

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:02 pm

Match betting for Damian Eadie vs Dinos Syfris
2/5 Damian Eadie 2/1 Dinos Syfris 25/1 Draw
Date : Saturday 5th July
Time : 8pm (subject to change)

Points Margin betting

Damian Dinos
14/1 0-10 6/1
8/1 11-20 14/1
4/1 21-30 25/1
7/2 31-40 66/1
6/1 41-50 200/1
14/1 51 + 500/1

Places predictions here

Betting closed at 19:55

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:19 pm

Damian Eadie 100-68 Dinos Syfris

If you look at the odds above you could have got 7/2 on a Damian victory by 31-40 points

.

Have my odds been miscalculated this time Jim?

Julian Fell · Post by **Julian Fell** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:50 pm

I'd like to put some money on Ben Pugh being a future series champion - what odds are you offering for that Jason?...

Charlie Reams · Post by **Charlie Reams** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:05 pm

I'd like to bet against that, can I get some odds too?

Julian Fell · Post by **Julian Fell** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:14 pm

Does Charlie know something I don't

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:24 pm

Ben Pugh to be future Countdown Champion

4/6 Yes
2/1 No

*These odds are based on the high level of quality I have witnessed in Ben's game already and also because of the lowered overall contestant quality in the current series*

Karen Pearson · Post by **Karen Pearson** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:26 pm

Charlie Reams wrote:I'd like to bet against that, can I get some odds too?

When Conor was on I emailed William Hill to see if I could get any odds on him being the series champion and they didn't even respond. I hope you have better luck!

Jon O'Neill · Post by **Jon O'Neill** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 8:38 pm

I'll have a tenner on Ben to not be a series champion by Series 70. Sorry Ben, but that's where the intelligent money is.

- Jon "£4 on Nadal to win in five sets at 11/2" O'Neill

Charlie Reams · Post by **Charlie Reams** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:05 pm

If you go into a bookies' in person, you can probably get odds on just about anything. I believe David Elias backed himself between filming and transmission, which is rather amusing.

JasonCullen · Post by **JasonCullen** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:06 pm

Jon "£4 on Nadal to win in five sets at 11/2" O'Neill

Good call Jono

. That is coming from Jason "£2 on Federer to win in five sets" Cullen

Gavin Chipper · Post by **Gavin Chipper** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:06 pm

Julian wrote:Anyway Richard, expect an angry post from Gevin saying that you've completely ruined the competition because posting odds is something which the eventual winner always does

Yeah, good one.