Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
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Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
A perfect score on Countdown is 248. Will anyone achieve this in Countdown's history?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I got a 247 earlier so it's got to be close.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
238 would the be maximum surely Jason?
Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
IAWTP. 11 letters rounds with 18 points each (! ), plus 10 points each for 3 numbers rounds plus conundrum.james doohan wrote:238 would the be maximum surely Jason?
I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.
Kirk's max game is the best it can get. I would say, with the increasing popularity of apterous, that that will probably happen on the show again sometime.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Did you do that well on Apterous, Matt?
Wow!
Wow!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Unfortunately not Jason. I did it at home. I was keeping it a secret until you started this thread!Jason Larsen wrote:Did you do that well on Apterous, Matt?
Wow!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Yes, I remember a game that involved Ben Wilson which had like 5.Julie T wrote: I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.
Edit: Actually no, it had 4 - quite a few have had 4 9's.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
The highest max game was 173, achieved in Des Lynam's 2nd week. There were 5 9's, yet neither contestant got a century.Darren Carter wrote:Yes, I remember a game that involved Ben Wilson which had like 5.Julie T wrote: I would say that the probability of all letters rounds having a 9 letter word possible, is pretty much nil. Has there ever been more than 3? I expect someone will know.
Edit: Actually no, it had 4 - quite a few have had 4 9's.
http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_3967
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
173 on Apterous as well. Both players got a century, although neither player had a massive score.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I don't like to get all technical and nerdy and that (I do really) it's never ever going to happen unless the letters are rigged for it. Numbers and conundrum are trivial, but if the letters follow the distribution of the show (and apterous) then it can't really happen.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games. Of course this is a significant underestimate, because each nine gets less and less probable as the nice letters get used up, and the numbers aren't guaranteed to yield 30 points either. So basically, no.JimBentley wrote:I don't like to get all technical and nerdy and that (I do really) it's never ever going to happen unless the letters are rigged for it. Numbers and conundrum are trivial, but if the letters follow the distribution of the show (and apterous) then it can't really happen.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
This should be in the spoilers forum, you bastards.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I'm glad you did this calculation asCharlie Reams wrote:About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games.
1) I failed A-level maths
2) I'd have run out of fingers about 6,999,999,999,999,990 before getting to the answer.
However, I had estimated the answer to the question to be 'no' without counting on my fingers.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Can anyone tell me the distribution of letters used on the show?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It can't happen unless they rigged the game? No way.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Jason, do you mean for someone to get a score of 238...by getting 11 9 letter words, all 3 numbers and the conundrum?Jason Larsen wrote:It can't happen unless they rigged the game? No way.
After nearly 5,000 games on Countdown and nearly 200,000 on apterous, the highest available max is 173 (both with 5 nines). The chance of 11 9 letter words coming out is ridiculously small. It will never happen.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?
I wonder how many would get it?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
So basically 3 numbers and 12 conundrums where the conundrums could end in S. A think a couple may get it if we know it's there...as it's easier to spot a 9 if you know there's one there.Marc Meakin wrote:It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I guess after the first 4 rounds maybe some of you experts might recognise the pattern but I guess a few S ending words would make some players have to think a bit.Kirk Bevins wrote:So basically 3 numbers and 12 conundrums where the conundrums could end in S. A think a couple may get it if we know it's there...as it's easier to spot a 9 if you know there's one there.Marc Meakin wrote:It would be good if the duel was to contrive a perfect game scenario, on Apterous.
I wonder how many would get it?
Rather than the almost robotic way that some players know conundrums in miliseconds, through lots of practise.
I remember the only time I got a 9 against Chris D. was with OUTSWINGS.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
That's why I was asking if anyone knows the distribution so I could write a little app to calculate a possible sequence.Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm helpAlec Rivers wrote:That's why I was asking if anyone knows the distribution so I could write a little app to calculate a possible sequence.Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Mark, would you know where the thread I was talking about is as well?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
No, I am only good with Google.Gavin Chipper wrote:Mark, would you know where the thread I was talking about is as well?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
try searching off-topic for "countdown dice" - that's ringing my bell.
Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
And then of course, when the once in 7 million billion games comes up, you need a contestant to score the max. Which so far as we know has only happened once in 5,000 episodes. So multiply the odds by another 5,000 or so.Charlie Reams wrote:About 5% of rounds have nines, so a game with all nines would occur about once in every 7 million billion games. Of course this is a significant underestimate, because each nine gets less and less probable as the nice letters get used up, and the numbers aren't guaranteed to yield 30 points either. So basically, no.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Correction: Has happened once since the start of the 15 round format, which is far less (or fewer, I think) than 5000.David Roe wrote: Which so far as we know has only happened once in 5,000 episodes. So multiply the odds by another 5,000 or so.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It does perfectly, thank you.Marc Meakin wrote:Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm help
EDIT: That list shows the letters J, K, Q, V, W, X, Y, and Z occurring only once but they come up more than once in a game, so I'm assuming the entire list is duplicated at least once.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I couldn't find it there. The thread consisted mainly of hilarious quotes of really long word lists (you had to be there). But this is related and it goes further by including the conundrum and a spare round!Matt Morrison wrote:try searching off-topic for "countdown dice" - that's ringing my bell.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Sounds like a dangerous move.Alec Rivers wrote:It does perfectly, thank you.Marc Meakin wrote:Does this http://www.thecountdownpage.com/letters.htm help
EDIT: That list shows the letters J, K, Q, V, W, X, Y, and Z occurring only once but they come up more than once in a game, so I'm assuming the entire list is duplicated at least once.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
The distribution recently has changed. Two Ys, two Ws...it would be nice to have an updated version...or at least remove some letters so it matches what the distribution was last year. I'll happily oblige to do this
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Just say ERVEN.Marc Meakin wrote:What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Well I never.Alec Rivers wrote:Just say ERVEN.Marc Meakin wrote:What if someone ask me to make a word from ERENV apart from nerve.Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
What I'm saying is I know it can happen and it is possible to beat the odds!
I know you're kidding!
I know you're kidding!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It should be quite easy to guarantee the possibility of a 9 in every round if you know in advance how many consonants and vowels the contestants will choose.Gavin Chipper wrote:There was a thread (at least one) where people came up with possible shuffles that would result in nines in every round, while keeping the standard distribution of letters. This doesn't make it remotely likely of course, but I think it's theoretically possible.
An example with 4 vowels and 5 consonants [using the distribution given above] could be (this is ad hoc):
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N D A E I O
S T R N L A E I O
S T R N L A E I O
S T R P L A E I O
P M G H C A I O O
Q C K B M A E I U
to give ORDINATES (etc) 6 times, RELATIONS (etc) twice, EPILATORS, OMOPHAGIC and QUICKBEAM as the 11 letters round nines.
The difficulty is in finding a shuffle that allows this for any combination of 3/4/5-vowel picks. I suspect it's possible if we allow 3-4 (or 4-5) vowel choices but extending it to all three options is likely to be impossible.
Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Yes, Jason, it can happen. Just as you can toss a coin twelve times in a row and it will land on its edge each time. Or that your house will explode in a gas blast and the bricks will reassemble themselves exactly as before half a mile away. Or that there's a 66-car pile-up on Route 66 and every single driver and passenger is called Jason Larsen. It can happen, but it isn't likely.Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Or this. (Just thought of it when you mentioned all those.)David Roe wrote:Yes, Jason, it can happen. Just as you can toss a coin twelve times in a row and it will land on its edge each time. Or that your house will explode in a gas blast and the bricks will reassemble themselves exactly as before half a mile away. Or that there's a 66-car pile-up on Route 66 and every single driver and passenger is called Jason Larsen. It can happen, but it isn't likely.Jason Larsen wrote:It can happen because "lightning can strike." I'm just trying to be optimistic! Someone just might be able to beat the odds! Don't say never!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I know, David, but we're not on Channel 5 and in front of Justin Lee Collins!
You never know what might happen if, say, Julian Fell appeared on Countdown again and beat his score of 144!
You never know what might happen if, say, Julian Fell appeared on Countdown again and beat his score of 144!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.Gavin Chipper wrote:Or this.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Alec, exactly!
Gavin, I don't understand that analogy. The reason being, we're all different.
Gavin, I don't understand that analogy. The reason being, we're all different.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It was only last year that you were telling us you were the same as us.Jason Larsen wrote:The reason being, we're all different.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Thanks. But that doesn't detract from David's original assertion that the odds of somebody achieving a score of 238 in one game of Countdown are almost immeasurably small. It is not enough to say it is improbable, it is improbable on a startling scale. Sorry, Jason, but there's more chance that Drew Carey will arrive on your doorstep tomorrow wearing a pink tutu and offer you a multi-million dollar contract to co-host a bunch of prime-time game shows for the next ten years.Jason Larsen wrote:Alec, exactly!
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Brain cells "in their hundreds" isn't really that many. Obviously it adds up over long periods of time, but I would say personality and traits can and do change at least somewhat over long periods of time.Alec Rivers wrote: lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
That my figures might be inaccurate is irrelevant - my point is that the claim that our entire 'being' is stored physically in our brain cells is only an assumption.Innis Carson wrote:Brain cells "in their hundreds" isn't really that many. Obviously it adds up over long periods of time, but I would say personality and traits can and do change at least somewhat over long periods of time.Alec Rivers wrote: lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.
Anyway, to get back on topic, I still think the answer to the original question is a resounding 'never'.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Kirk, actually, we're all alike but different in that we both live in free countries, but the most noticeable difference between us is that your name is Kirk Bevins and my name is Jason Larsen.
Alec, you never know, Drew Carey could come and visit my neighborhood! He goes to Qwest Field all the time! If he really feels out to lunch he might dress in drag!
My prediction is that no, there will not be an investigation of Parliament if someone should get a perfect score on Countdown in the near future. Jeff Stelling promised to "tone it down" on Countdown as opposed to "being himself." He knows that it is a game and it should be played, so he doesn't make the show all about himself. It's the contestants that get all the media attention if they get a perfect score. Something would be wrong if it were any other way.
Alec, you never know, Drew Carey could come and visit my neighborhood! He goes to Qwest Field all the time! If he really feels out to lunch he might dress in drag!
My prediction is that no, there will not be an investigation of Parliament if someone should get a perfect score on Countdown in the near future. Jeff Stelling promised to "tone it down" on Countdown as opposed to "being himself." He knows that it is a game and it should be played, so he doesn't make the show all about himself. It's the contestants that get all the media attention if they get a perfect score. Something would be wrong if it were any other way.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Ha. That's what they want you to think.Jason Larsen wrote:... we both live in free countries
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
What is your country called? The United Kingdom
Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
It's a very, very reasonable one though.Alec Rivers wrote:That my figures might be inaccurate is irrelevant - my point is that the claim that our entire 'being' is stored physically in our brain cells is only an assumption.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.Alec Rivers wrote:lol. Nice thought experiment except for one crucial element, namely the implication that every aspect of our conscious being is stored physically in our brain cells. If that were the case, our personalities and traits would be subject to continual change as random brain cells die in their hundreds every second and are replaced by new ones.Gavin Chipper wrote:Or this.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Higgs Field.Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.
Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Saturday night, I feel the air is getting hot - like you, baby.Alec Rivers wrote:Higgs Field.Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
No, it's called England, which, along with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland form "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".Jason Larsen wrote:What is your country called? The United Kingdom
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
LOLJon Corby wrote:Saturday night, I feel the air is getting hot - like you, baby.Alec Rivers wrote:Higgs Field.Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
But on Sporcle, you have to put "United Kingdom" when listing the countries. What point is there in carrying on if we can't even trust Sporcle?Alec Rivers wrote:No, it's called England, which, along with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland form "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".Jason Larsen wrote:What is your country called? The United Kingdom
Also, weird places like Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Channel Islands etc., are they neither a country or in a country?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Well they are neither UN member states nor any of 3 other widely recognized nations.Gavin Chipper wrote:Also, weird places like Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Channel Islands etc., are they neither a country or in a country?
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
I was just mocking your bad science.Alec Rivers wrote:Higgs Field.Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.
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Re: Will anyone achieve a perfect score?
Okay, but we don't all spend our entire lives trying to be scientific. There's being human, too.Charlie Reams wrote:I was just mocking your bad science.Alec Rivers wrote:Higgs Field.Charlie Reams wrote:Also there can't be a vacuum between the Earth and the Sun or the light would have nothing to travel through.