So, I thought I'd set up a thread for such discussions to see how it works out
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
I'll also do a bit of statistical analysis once anyone octos, or loses after getting 4 wins or more.
Moderator: James Robinson
I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki pageJohnny Canuck wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:13 pm Did anyone notice the rather monumental coincidence related to the targets that CECIL came up with today?
Just a weird déjà vu thing -- I thought CECIL had been generating a lot of high targets recently, knew I had seen 986 as a target earlier in the week, and then when the 910 came up in the last game I recalled that Tom's last numbers game was also a 910 that wasn't solved by either of the players (and which I did with a final step of 130*7 both times).Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki pagehttp://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_6622 - how on earth did you spot this?
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Agreed, far too improbable to happen by chance within a lifetime. I suspect it was a bug, whereby the file or memory address that has the targets in it got reused somehow. I wonder if tomorrow's targets will match Tuesday's, too.Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am I make it a one in 653,188,856,401 chance of that happening![]()
He seems to either get it spot on or not get anywhere close generally, and he doesn't seem to want to deviate so I doubt it. His factorising is very good, so for something like 689 he'll see 53*13, but when it's something like 827 which is prime, he gets way too flustered trying to get it exactly rather than getting somewhere close as insurance. I wonder if he'd have got it had the target been 828, which has a lot of factors. I'd say probably.
I've been hoping for this since series 47. Fingers crossed.Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:42 pm3 octochamps now with 88 prelims still left - could we be on for over 8 octochamps this series........?
I hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?
It looks like they have been overskipping it.Graeme Cole wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:34 pmI hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?
I think she'll just be cannon fodder for the top players. It will be ugly.L'oisleatch McGraw wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am 68 prelims = at least 18 three-time winners... if there is a God!
The S77 finals needs Nikki in it!
Nah, we need nine!We've already had enough Octochamps this series.
Time for a slow down...
Possibly, the potential ones have always found someone stronger in their run. It'll require some hard and fast octochamps now like John-Michael's back to back crownings.Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:03 am I think we're slowly moving away from the possibility of nine octochamps. We've had a few octochamp contenders recently, but they've all fallen away. We've had a long gap now.
Hopefully!Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am I guess someone is going to have to do the stats for Ben L's run now.
I think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.
Indeed, he confirmed this to me shortly after my original post. Eoin is quite a strong player and if he wins it will again dilute the frequency of octochamps in S77. But on the plus side, if Phil is still going Eoin will appear during his seventh game and could take him to a high-scoring match / crucial, and it's been a while since we had a high-quality match so late in an incumbent champion's run (usually, by the time the seventh game comes, the prospective octochamp has just been dispatching the challengers handily). Again, though, the results of the matches remain to be seen.Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:54 amI think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.
I've been looking forward to this for months now.
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:15 pm were all of the top eight seeds of the series able to play?
678 is quite low for an Octochamp. I wondered if this might be the lowest in the new 15r era but I see James Slater has the record, scoring 672 last series. Not surprising that it’s lower since an average of just over 80 would probably not be enough against an above average player.Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:42 pm Summary for Graeme Staples.........
Wins: 8
Points: 678
Current seed: 7
No, I doubt they'd be allowed to play in the S78 finals. Them's the rules. Think of it from the point of view of the S78 finalists. Why should someone who plays in S78, and does enough to be #8 seed in the S78 finals, be deprived of their finals place by someone who failed to qualify in an earlier series?Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:
All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
Why would they be allowed in series 78? They've got nothing to do with it at all. They would have played all their games in series 77, and failed to reach the finals, exactly the same as anyone else with 6 wins.Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:
All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
Code: Select all
Wins Points Maxes
Tom Chafer-Cook 8 896 68%
Bradley Horrocks 8 864 53%
John Cowen 8 799 47%
Noel McIlvenny 8 793 43%
Eoin Jackson 8 778 49%
Michael Pfeffer 8 770 37%
James Kennedy 8 736 37%
Greame Staples 8 678 38%
Code: Select all
Letters Maxes Badges Medals
Tom Chafer-Cook 68% 12 7
Bradley Horrocks 40% 4 7
John Cowen 45% 4 4
Noel McIlvenny 34% 2 3
Eoin Jackson 35% 2 8
Michael Pfeffer 29% 0 3
James Kennedy 33% 0 0
Greame Staples 30% 1 3
Code: Select all
Numbers Maxes 6s maxes 1l maxes 2l maxes 3l maxes 4l maxes
Tom Chafer-Cook 72% 2/3 18/24 (75%) 1/3 1/1 1/1
Bradley Horrocks 81% 7/10 (70%) 11/11 (100%) 7/9 0/1 1/1
John Cowen 44% 7/17 (41%) 3/6 4/9 0/0 0/0
Noel McIlvenny 66% 0/0 7/11 (64%) 3/5 0/0 11/16 (69%)
Eoin Jackson 72% 2/5 8/9 13/17 (76%) 0/0 0/1
Michael Pfeffer 53% 0/3 11/16 (69%) 4/7 0/0 2/6
James Kennedy 41% 1/3 10/26 (38%) 1/2 1/1 0/0
Greame Staples 50% 0/0 6/11 (55%) 9/20 (45%) 0/0 1/1
Code: Select all
Conundrums won Conundrums lost Conundrums unsolved
Tom Chafer-Cook 5 2 1
Bradley Horrocks 5 0 3
John Cowen 6 0 2
Noel McIlvenny 4 1 3
Eoin Jackson 3 3 2
Michael Pfeffer 4 2 2
James Kennedy 5 0 3
Greame Staples 6 1 1
This has been discussed at length previously.Thomas Cappleman wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:21 pmWhy would they be allowed in series 78? They've got nothing to do with it at all. They would have played all their games in series 77, and failed to reach the finals, exactly the same as anyone else with 6 wins.Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm I think I know the answer to this question, but I'm genuinely curious:
All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
I've been looking forward to this, cheers Martin
The answer seems pretty obvious to me, but shouldn't the question be:-Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pmAll spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
Seeds 3 to 6 are very close on points, so I don't think any result involving these players would be that much of an upset. I think the first two are slightly clear though, so I'd predict them in the final, with Tom the slight favourite.Philip Peel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:25 am I think Noel v Eoin is a very close one, but if I am looking for an upset I can see Michael causing John problems.
I don't see why not -- at the point when they carry over beyond the Series 77 finals, they become a Series 78 contestant.David Williams wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:23 amThe answer seems pretty obvious to me, but shouldn't the question be:-Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pmAll spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next six games and loses the seventh and last heat, and six wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, or do you need to play at least one game in Series 78 to get in?
All spots for the Series 77 finals are now claimed, and there are still seven heats left in the series. If someone wins the next seven games and loses the first heat of series 78, and seven wins proves to be enough to make it into the Series 78 finals, can this person be entered into the Series 78 finals, even though they wouldn't have qualified for the Series 77 finals?