Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

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Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
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Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

Post by Graeme Cole » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:18 pm

Countdown recap for Monday 14 October 2013.

C1: Champion Abdirizak Hirsi (4 wins, 417 points) debuted last week by beating seven-time winner Callum Todd on a tiebreak conundrum. Controversial though the circumstances of his buzz and answer were, he's clearly a talented player, and has since made scores of 113, 116 and 99.
C2: Challenger Brenda Ware is a retired teacher from Urmston, Manchester. She is described as an "international grandmother", as she's got two grandchildren in America, two in Australia, and four closer to home.
DC: Susie Dent and Kate Adie.
RR: Rachel Riley.
OT: Other words or solutions.

R01: F I S A R U T O L
R02: T B G E O A C T R
R03: 50, 100, 25, 100, 8, 8. Target: 596.
TTT: RETROLIP - "A lot more full-bodied than other drinks, perhaps."
R04: I E O H T S U D J
R05: D E N R S D O I A
R06: 75, 4, 1, 10, 10, 3. Target: 296.
R07: T Z I E I S R O G
R08: A E O T P R T N A
R09: 25, 75, 50, 5, 6, 7. Target: 639.
TTT: HERGRACE - "Her Grace needs to take a rest and give herself a boost."
R10: M Y R E U A L F N
R11: I E E O I P S C S
R12: R N S A E O V M A
R13: D E G O S A H O N
R14: 50, 7, 9, 8, 1, 2. Target: 318.
R15: D A N C E T O U R (conundrum)


And now a brief interlude before our main feature:

SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER
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SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER

Enjoy the show.


Round 1: F I S A R U T O L

C1: SAUTOIR (7)
C2: staroil
DC: FISTULA (7) FISTULAR (8)
OT: FLORUITS (8)
Score: 7–0 (max 8)

Abdi opens proceedings with SAUTOIR, a type of necklace. Brenda's offering of STAROIL^ is reminiscent of different grades of leaded petrol, but not in the dictionary.

The recap writer thinks FLORUITS is also there. FLORUITED^ has been declared verboten by the Team as FLORUIT the verb is already past tense, but since FLORUIT is also listed as a noun, FLORUITS ought to be fine.


Round 2: T B G E O A C T R

C1: COTTAGE (7)
C2: COTTAGER (8)
Score: 7–8 (max 16)

An uncharacteristic slip from Abdi allows Brenda to move in front. A COTTAGER is someone who lives in a cottage. And definitely nothing else.


Round 3: 50, 100, 25, 10, 8, 8. Target: 596.

C1: 595. (100-25)*8-50/10 (7)
C2: 598.
RR: 596. (100-25-8)*8+50+10 (10)
Score: 14–8 (max 26)

Abdi is back in front after a tricky 3-large. Rachel shows us perfection.


Teatime teaser: RETROLIP -> PORTLIER


Round 4: I E O H T S U D J

C1: HOISTED (7)
C2: JOUSTED (7)
DC: SHOUTED (7) HIDEOUS (7) TEDIOUS (7)
OT: HIDEOUTS (8)
Score: 21–15 (max 34)

Sevens apiece, and nobody in the studio spots HIDEOUTS.


Round 5: D E N R S D O I A

C1: ANEROIDS (8)
C2: ANDROIDS (8)
DC: ADENOIDS (8) ORDAINED (8)
OT: ANODISED (8) ANODISER (8) INDORSED (8) ROADSIDE (8) SARDINED (8)
Score: 29–23 (max 42)

Two good eights now, and Brenda shows no signs yet of being shaken off.


Round 6: 75, 4, 1, 10, 10, 3. Target: 296.

C1: 296. (75-1)*4 (10)
C2: 296. 10*10*3-4 (10)
Score: 39–33 (max 52)

Next.


Round 7: T Z I E I S R O G

C1: GORIEST (7)
C2: GOITRES (7)
DC: ORGIES (6)
OT: ZOISITE (7)
Score: 46–40 (max 59)

GORIEST and GOITRES are the most obvious sevens here, but well done indeed if you spotted the other one, ZOISITE. It's a mineral consisting of a basic silicate of calcium and aluminium.


Round 8: A E O T P R T N A

C1: PATENTOR (8)
C2: OPERANT (7)
Score: 54–40 (max 67)

Abdi takes the darrenic PATENTOR to move further in front. Nick points out to Susie that it's pronounced with a short A rather than a long A. Susie says he's probably right, but in fact it can be pronounced either way.


Round 9: 25, 75, 50, 5, 6, 7. Target: 639.

C1: 636.
C2: 638. (75+50)*5+6+7 (7)
RR: 639. (25+75)*7-50-6-5 (10)
Score: 54–47 (max 77)

Abdi picks three large again, but this time it's Brenda who wins the round. There's a short pause after she starts with the five and then realises she needs to add 75 and 50 first, but it's short enough to pass.


Teatime teaser: HERGRACE -> RECHARGE


Round 10: M Y R E U A L F N

C1: FUNERAL (7)
C2: FLAMEY (6)
DC: NUMERAL (7) FLAMEN (6)
OT: FLANEUR (7) FRAENUM (7)
Score: 61–47 (max 84)

Abdi recovers the margin lost on the last round as Brenda can only find FLAMEY.


Round 11: I E E O I P S C S

C1: COPIES (6)
C2: SPECIES (7)
DC: SPICES (6)
Nick: PIECES (6)
Score: 61–54 (max 91)

Interesting tactics here, as Abdi picks the maximum five vowels before seeing any consonants. Perhaps it's an effort to limit the words available from the selection and protect his lead? This is perfectly within the letter and the spirit of the rules, of course - after all, there's not much point in it being your pick if you can't pick to suit your purposes - but it doesn't help Abdi on this occasion. Brenda spots the darrenic 7 SPECIES to close the gap again.


Round 12: R N S A E O V M A

C1: OVERMANS (8)
C2: OVERMANS (8)
DC: MAVENS (6)
Score: 69–62 (max 99)

Another darren OVERMANS still doesn't shake Brenda off.


Round 13: D E G O S A H O N

C1: GNASHED (7)
C2: GOOSED (6)
DC: GOONDAS (7)
OT: SANDHOG (7)
Score: 76–62 (max 106)

Abdi finally pulls away with GNASHED. Susie puts the soon-to-be-obsolete pencam on GOONDA, which is an Indian term for a hired thug or bully.


Round 14: 50, 7, 9, 8, 1, 2. Target: 318.

C1: 318. ((9-8)+2+50)*(7-1) (10)
C2: -
Score: 86–62 (max 116)

Brenda needed to win this round to have any hope of taking the game. She's clearly shown herself to be a strong player, but like so many before her in this position, picks one large when she needs to win it. Intuitively, this seems like a bad move, as it's got the greatest possibility that it'll be an easy one that both players will get.

But do the stats agree? This table counts all 9-round, 14-round, and 15-round games up to the end of series 68 where the person to pick the last numbers round was between 11 and 20 behind before that round. It shows how many times that person made a successful comeback, broken down by pick.

Code: Select all

Successful 11-20 point comebacks by last numbers round picker

    Larges      Picker won game
         0       5/ 93    5.38%
         1      27/501    5.39%
         2       5/115    4.35%
         3       1/ 28    3.57%
         4       2/ 35    5.71%
So the statistics tell us that there's not much to tell between any of the picks, which is odd. Perhaps it's because we're dealing with so few occurrences? Not sure.

After all that, Brenda blobs it anyway.


Round 15: D A N C E T O U R

Abdi buzzes on 1 second to stare at the screen for a bit and say "er, is - is it OUT-... is it..." but Nick is rightly having none of that.
"No, no no no no no no, we can't do that," says Nick as Abdi says OUTRACED. "Rest of the time to Brenda."
Brenda does not buzz.
The answer was UNDERCOAT.
Final Score: 86–62 (max 126)

"I'm sure Abdi will understand, we've got to answer as soon as we press the bell." You'd hope so, this being the second time he's been reminded of that. Nevertheless, he put in a good performance today against a strong player, and he'll be facing apterous's Mark James tomorrow.

Edit: In other news, I've just noticed this is the 10,000th thread on the forum. Woo!

Further summaries are at:
http://cdb.apterous.org/series.php?series=69
Last edited by Graeme Cole on Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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James Robinson
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Re: Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

Post by James Robinson » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:15 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:Round 6: 75, 4, 1, 10, 10, 3. Target: 296.

C1: 296. 10*10*3-4 (10)
C2: 296. (75-1)*4 (10)
Score: 39–33 (max 52)

Next.
Wrong way round................ :roll:
CO:WY 2020 CANCELLED :cry: :cry: :cry:

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Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
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Re: Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

Post by Graeme Cole » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:28 pm

James Robinson wrote:
Graeme Cole wrote:Round 6: 75, 4, 1, 10, 10, 3. Target: 296.

C1: 296. 10*10*3-4 (10)
C2: 296. (75-1)*4 (10)
Score: 39–33 (max 52)

Next.
Wrong way round................ :roll:
Well spotted.

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Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
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Re: Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

Post by Graeme Cole » Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:21 pm

Graeme Cole wrote: Round 14: 50, 7, 9, 8, 1, 2. Target: 318.

C1: 318. ((9-8)+2+50)*(7-1) (10)
C2: -
Score: 86–62 (max 116)

Brenda needed to win this round to have any hope of taking the game. She's clearly shown herself to be a strong player, but like so many before her in this position, picks one large when she needs to win it. Intuitively, this seems like a bad move, as it's got the greatest possibility that it'll be an easy one that both players will get.

But do the stats agree? This table counts all 9-round, 14-round, and 15-round games up to the end of series 68 where the person to pick the last numbers round was between 11 and 20 behind before that round. It shows how many times that person made a successful comeback, broken down by pick.

Code: Select all

Successful 11-20 point comebacks by last numbers round picker

    Larges      Picker won game
         0       5/ 93    5.38%
         1      27/501    5.39%
         2       5/115    4.35%
         3       1/ 28    3.57%
         4       2/ 35    5.71%
So the statistics tell us that there's not much to tell between any of the picks, which is odd. Perhaps it's because we're dealing with so few occurrences? Not sure.
To follow up on this, Matt Bayfield asked me what the statistics were for occasions where the numbers picker turned an 11-20 point deficit into a <=10 point deficit in the last numbers round, regardless of whether they got the conundrum.

Code: Select all

Conversions from 11-20 points down to <=10 points down by last numbers picker

    Larges      Picker forced crucial
         0      19/ 93    20.43%
         1      79/501    15.77%
         2      17/115    14.78%
         3       5/ 28    17.86%
         4       8/ 35    22.86%
So if you only focus on whether the numbers part of the attempted comeback was successful, 6 small and 4 large have historically been the best picks in this situation.

Matt Bayfield
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Re: Monday 14th October 2013 (Series 69, Prelim 69)

Post by Matt Bayfield » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:12 am

Cracking work Graeme. Thanks for that addendum.

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