AV: Yes or No?

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AV?

Poll ended at Thu May 05, 2011 11:49 am

Yes
26
81%
No
6
19%
 
Total votes: 32

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Adam Gillard
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Adam Gillard »

Liam Tiernan wrote:
Gavin Chipper wrote:I wonder how awkard multi-seat constituency STV ballot papers are in practice. You might have six seats in a constituency and the main parties might all field six candidates. Then you've got all the minor parties and indpendents. That's going to be a pretty big ballot paper.
Image

The highest number of candidates in the last general election was 18 in the five-seater Wicklow constituency. You' can see here that four of the top five in the first count (i.e. FPTP) got elected. The exception was the Sinn Fein candidate, who like most extremist candidates, struggled to pick up second and subsequent preferences. That's the exact opposite of the argument that AV would greatly favour small extremist parties such as BNP. Incidentally, I've read that under STV the optimum number of seats to ensure as little large-party bias as possible is ten.
Could be worse:

Image

(Democratic Republic of Congo ballot paper)
Mike Brown: "Round 12: T N R S A E I G U

C1: SIGNATURE (18) ["9; not written down"]
C2: SEATING (7)
Score: 108–16 (max 113)

Another niner for Adam and yet another century. Well done, that man."
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Rhys Benjamin
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

Adam Gillard wrote:I know I'm jumping in to this discussion a bit late, but a poll done for The Guardian yesterday (4 May) predicted 68% 'No' and 32% 'Yes'. The poll on this thread (admittedly of 31 people) predicts 84% 'Yes' and 16% 'No'. Quite a discrepancy there. Any thoughts?
Some people here are just too left wing. The poll I did on Facebook had 84% in favor of No.

(Edited so the population of America can understand this post - so we on the right do think of everyone!)
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Jon O'Neill »

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Adam Gillard wrote:I know I'm jumping in to this discussion a bit late, but a poll done for The Guardian yesterday (4 May) predicted 68% 'No' and 32% 'Yes'. The poll on this thread (admittedly of 31 people) predicts 84% 'Yes' and 16% 'No'. Quite a discrepancy there. Any thoughts?
Some people here are just too left wing. The poll I did on Facebook had 84% in favor of No.

(Edited so the population of America can understand this post - so we on the right do think of everyone!)
This forum, by its nature, has mostly clever people. Clever people understand AV. People who understand AV vote for it. That's why there's a discrepancy.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

Innis Carson wrote:
Rhys Benjamin wrote:[sigh] My cousin, who is 22, is (and has been) standing for councillor elections in his Local constituency (well, sort of(the one his uni's in)) and he represents the Conservative party. As such, we have "inside knowledge".
It's clear you're having a hard time justifying his opinions
ty
Innis Carson wrote: have you considered the possibility that you don't agree with them? You don't have to just because he's your cousin.
I don't. I don't even live in East Anglia! I also supported the Cons before he joined.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Ryan Taylor »

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Innis Carson wrote:
Rhys Benjamin wrote:[sigh] My cousin, who is 22, is (and has been) standing for councillor elections in his Local constituency (well, sort of(the one his uni's in)) and he represents the Conservative party. As such, we have "inside knowledge".
It's clear you're having a hard time justifying his opinions
ty
lol wtf
Rhys Benjamin wrote:Some people here are just too left wing. The poll I did on Facebook had 84% in favor of No.
Doesn't that just tell you the sort of people in your social group more than anything? Facebook polls aren't really worthwhile which reminds me, will you stop asking me who I think is going to win the F1 at the weekend because I have no knowledge of F1 and quite frankly do not care!!
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Ian Volante »

Rhys Benjamin wrote:Some people here are just too left wing. The poll I did on Facebook had 84% in favor of No.
Doesn't that just tell you the sort of people in your social group more than anything? Facebook polls aren't really worthwhile which reminds me, will you stop asking me who I think is going to win the F1 at the weekend because I have no knowledge of F1 and quite frankly do not care!![/quote]

Just mark the questions as spam, you won't see them again after doing that a few times.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Ryan Taylor »

Ian Volante wrote:
Rhys Benjamin wrote:Some people here are just too left wing. The poll I did on Facebook had 84% in favor of No.
Me wrote:Doesn't that just tell you the sort of people in your social group more than anything? Facebook polls aren't really worthwhile which reminds me, will you stop asking me who I think is going to win the F1 at the weekend because I have no knowledge of F1 and quite frankly do not care!!
Just mark the questions as spam, you won't see them again after doing that a few times.
I have more favourable options.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Steve Balog »

I don't even know what on earth an AV is or was, but if the right wing is so against it they're running ads to try to get it stopped, I support it.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Jon O'Neill »

Steve Balog wrote:I don't even know what on earth an AV is or was, but if the right wing is so against it they're running ads to try to get it stopped, I support it.
Jon O'Neill wrote:I don't really care either way so I'm going to vote for my default political position: whatever David Cameron doesn't want.
Yep
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Adam Gillard wrote:I know I'm jumping in to this discussion a bit late, but a poll done for The Guardian yesterday (4 May) predicted 68% 'No' and 32% 'Yes'. The poll on this thread (admittedly of 31 people) predicts 84% 'Yes' and 16% 'No'. Quite a discrepancy there. Any thoughts?
Some people here are just too left wing.
Left/right wing as terms have been stretched beyond any usefulness.

Apparently being right-wing means you are anti-abortion and that you are also against AV. What's the connection?
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Steve Balog »

Yea, gotta agree with that. And, as I mentioned before, supporting the Conservative party would put you pretty much as a moderate in America. To be "right wing" in America, I'm pretty sure you have to have at least 2 of the classical signs of sociopathy.

Actually, if you ever want to pull an all nighter -- go to the website "Free Republic" (not sullying this board with a direct link). You will be too genuinely scared to sleep. And I actually have to live with the knowledge that the guy sitting next to me at a restaurant might actually be a member.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

It would have been interesting to see the Eastleigh by-election under AV.

Nigel Farage reckons UKIP could have won without the Conservatives splitting their vote, and presumably the Conservatives were thinking the same about UKIP. They got nearly 50% between them.

People have often said that UKIP are bad for the Tories because most UKIP voters would probably have gone for the Tories otherwise (unless they voted for BNP) and I have heard talks of potential agreements in the past where UKIP might not stand in some seats to get the Tories in. Why have a voting system where this sort of crap can happen?
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Martin Bishop »

Gavin Chipper wrote:It would have been interesting to see the Eastleigh by-election under AV.

Nigel Farage reckons UKIP could have won without the Conservatives splitting their vote, and presumably the Conservatives were thinking the same about UKIP. They got nearly 50% between them.

People have often said that UKIP are bad for the Tories because most UKIP voters would probably have gone for the Tories otherwise (unless they voted for BNP) and I have heard talks of potential agreements in the past where UKIP might not stand in some seats to get the Tories in. Why have a voting system where this sort of crap can happen?
Hilarious, isn't it?
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Martin Bishop wrote:
Gavin Chipper wrote:It would have been interesting to see the Eastleigh by-election under AV.

Nigel Farage reckons UKIP could have won without the Conservatives splitting their vote, and presumably the Conservatives were thinking the same about UKIP. They got nearly 50% between them.

People have often said that UKIP are bad for the Tories because most UKIP voters would probably have gone for the Tories otherwise (unless they voted for BNP) and I have heard talks of potential agreements in the past where UKIP might not stand in some seats to get the Tories in. Why have a voting system where this sort of crap can happen?
Hilarious, isn't it?
Yes - maybe in some elections, the Tory supporters will have to vote BNP to keep the lefties out. In some ways that would be funny, but it would also be disturbing if that situation actually came about.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

I don't know if any of you know about Coursera but they do free online courses. There's one on voting systems. It looks quite interesting. I'm going to do it. I also think that Rhys should do it.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by JimBentley »

Sorry to resurrect this, but thinking about it the other day, wasn't the whole AV referendum thing pointless from the start? The question was designed to return a NO vote anyway and structured in such a way that the responses were meaningless. If you voted "no", how do we know if that's "no, I love FPTP" or "no, AV's too wishy-washy, I want Standard Transferable Vote" or "no, you can fuck off with that crap, I want genuine electoral reform! Proportional Representation or nothing!". Equally, if you voted "yes", how do we know if that's "yes, I love AV, it's totally not an overcomplicated and flawed system" or "yes, though I'd really prefer something more radical like proportional representation, anything's got to be better than FPTP".

There must be a word for this situation - forcing an outcome by artificially restricting the options - but I can't think of it right now. Someone clever come along and say it.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Ian Volante »

Well aye, the Tories scuppered it. Like Hobson's Choice, but not quite.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

JimBentley wrote:Sorry to resurrect this, but thinking about it the other day, wasn't the whole AV referendum thing pointless from the start? The question was designed to return a NO vote anyway and structured in such a way that the responses were meaningless. If you voted "no", how do we know if that's "no, I love FPTP" or "no, AV's too wishy-washy, I want Standard Transferable Vote" or "no, you can fuck off with that crap, I want genuine electoral reform! Proportional Representation or nothing!". Equally, if you voted "yes", how do we know if that's "yes, I love AV, it's totally not an overcomplicated and flawed system" or "yes, though I'd really prefer something more radical like proportional representation, anything's got to be better than FPTP".

There must be a word for this situation - forcing an outcome by artificially restricting the options - but I can't think of it right now. Someone clever come along and say it.
My Scottish geography teacher accused the SNP of doing the same thing in the Indy Ref. He couldn't vote because he was living in England. However, my friend, who is 16, was allowed to vote as his father owns a house in Scotland, despite this person's dad being in the EDL (which, thankfully, doesn't reflect upon my friend).
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Oliver Garner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:55 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:Oliver, you have forced me into revealing my affiliation.

[sigh] My cousin, who is 22, is (and has been) standing for councillor elections in his Local constituency (well, sort of(the one his uni's in)) and he represents the Conservative party. As such, we have "inside knowledge".

Well, Oliver, I DO think that people who are 16 should vote.

I'm going to sod off for a bit.
Ah, interesting. I wondered. The only thing I like about the party is Boris. Far more interesting and less irritating than Ken IMO.
This didn't age well.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Paul Worsley »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:48 am
Oliver Garner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:55 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:Oliver, you have forced me into revealing my affiliation.

[sigh] My cousin, who is 22, is (and has been) standing for councillor elections in his Local constituency (well, sort of(the one his uni's in)) and he represents the Conservative party. As such, we have "inside knowledge".

Well, Oliver, I DO think that people who are 16 should vote.

I'm going to sod off for a bit.
Ah, interesting. I wondered. The only thing I like about the party is Boris. Far more interesting and less irritating than Ken IMO.
This didn't age well.
An 80 seat majority would suggest otherwise.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes »

Paul Worsley wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:25 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:48 am
Oliver Garner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:55 pm
Ah, interesting. I wondered. The only thing I like about the party is Boris. Far more interesting and less irritating than Ken IMO.
This didn't age well.
An 80 seat majority would suggest otherwise.
I think the 35-point drop in approval rating over the last month is more significant.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:33 pm
Paul Worsley wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:25 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:48 am
This didn't age well.
An 80 seat majority would suggest otherwise.
I think the 35-point drop in approval rating over the last month is more significant.
We're British. Our politicians are usually hopeless with approval ratings.. And given his approval rating shot up two months ago, I guess the curve really has been flattened...
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Paul Worsley wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:25 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:48 am
Oliver Garner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:55 pm
Ah, interesting. I wondered. The only thing I like about the party is Boris. Far more interesting and less irritating than Ken IMO.
This didn't age well.
An 80 seat majority would suggest otherwise.
I was thinking more in terms of how clear it is what an objectively useless human being he is, rather than anything to do with popularity, but thank you for your input.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes »

Rhys Benjamin wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:26 pm
Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:33 pm
Paul Worsley wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:25 pm

An 80 seat majority would suggest otherwise.
I think the 35-point drop in approval rating over the last month is more significant.
We're British. Our politicians are usually hopeless with approval ratings.. And given his approval rating shot up two months ago, I guess the curve really has been flattened...
I don't know what point you're trying to make with that article. It mostly talks about absolute approval ratings, rather than the size of increases or decreases. And when it does talk about swings, it's only in the context of the period of time immediately surrounding an election.

I found the graph interesting though. It shows that, in general, leaders experience their highest approval ratings immediately before and after a successful election, and hit their lowest points roughly midway between elections. As Boris is not even 6 months into his premiership, I do wonder, to borrow a term from limbo, "how low can he go?" I'm only being about 50% facetious.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

There is a pandemic, Sam. The leadership ratings are hardly in normal times, with mid-term blues effect etc
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes »

Rhys Benjamin wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:40 pm There is a pandemic, Sam. The leadership ratings are hardly in normal times, with mid-term blues effect etc
Silly me. I had neglected to factor in that approval ratings normally increase during times of national emergency. This makes the drop even more stark. Thanks for reminding me.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Might as well bump this old thread.

Labour members have voted in favour of putting a commitment to introducing proportional representation in the next manifesto. Keir Starmer, on the other hand, seems reluctant. Well this is his opportunity to show that Labour under him stand for something other than just getting the Tories out. Well something that isn't just really obvious (like stopping the Tories making everyone poorer). This would be a really positive move and something that would make a big difference to our politics if it actually happened. So that means it probably won't.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Marc Meakin »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:55 pm Might as well bump this old thread.

Labour members have voted in favour of putting a commitment to introducing proportional representation in the next manifesto. Keir Starmer, on the other hand, seems reluctant. Well this is his opportunity to show that Labour under him stand for something other than just getting the Tories out. Well something that isn't just really obvious (like stopping the Tories making everyone poorer). This would be a really positive move and something that would make a big difference to our politics if it actually happened. So that means it probably won't.
Are they that sure they will win that they want to effectively change the constitution.
If I wanted that I would vote Fib Dems
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Marc Meakin wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:59 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:55 pm Might as well bump this old thread.

Labour members have voted in favour of putting a commitment to introducing proportional representation in the next manifesto. Keir Starmer, on the other hand, seems reluctant. Well this is his opportunity to show that Labour under him stand for something other than just getting the Tories out. Well something that isn't just really obvious (like stopping the Tories making everyone poorer). This would be a really positive move and something that would make a big difference to our politics if it actually happened. So that means it probably won't.
Are they that sure they will win that they want to effectively change the constitution.
If I wanted that I would vote Fib Dems
Do you think it would be an election loser? A lot of people want PR and as long as they present it properly then the public should be fine with it.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Marc Meakin »

Didn't we have a referendum on this, and it was rejected.
Then the same rules should apply as with the Scottish independence referendum, it should be at least a generation, before this gets any traction.
Now I might have left myself open to an own goal as it might have been a generation ago since we had the last one 😊
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Marc Meakin »

So with a bit of research May 2011 was the referendum then if we consider 20 years to be a generation then only 9 years to wait.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes »

Marc Meakin wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:45 am Didn't we have a referendum on this, and it was rejected.
We had a referendum on AV, not PR, and I don't think that a "no" result in a referendum for one type of electoral reform (whatever you happen to think of how that referendum was conducted) should mean that all other forms of electoral reform go out of the window.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Marc Meakin »

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:50 am
Marc Meakin wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:45 am Didn't we have a referendum on this, and it was rejected.
We had a referendum on AV, not PR, and I don't think that a "no" result in a referendum for one type of electoral reform (whatever you happen to think of how that referendum was conducted) should mean that all other forms of electoral reform go out of the window.
This belongs on a PR thread.
Fib dems and the Green Party have been in favour of AV or PR and they have not been elected on the back of this.
If Brexit is reversed then PR may stand a chance
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Marc Meakin wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:44 am
Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:50 am
Marc Meakin wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:45 am Didn't we have a referendum on this, and it was rejected.
We had a referendum on AV, not PR, and I don't think that a "no" result in a referendum for one type of electoral reform (whatever you happen to think of how that referendum was conducted) should mean that all other forms of electoral reform go out of the window.
This belongs on a PR thread.
Fib dems and the Green Party have been in favour of AV or PR and they have not been elected on the back of this.
If Brexit is reversed then PR may stand a chance
Sure, I could have started a new thread for this, but it's not that important in the grand scheme of things.

Conservative and Labour have dominated the general elections for decades and I don't think the Lib Dems and Greens not getting elected is in any way a reflection of the public's views on PR or indeed any individual policy they might have.

And also what Sam says about AV not being PR (even if posting it in this thread did potentially confuse matters).

I also think that with the Tories self-destructing, the next general election should be an open goal for Labour so this should be their opportunity to be bold with their policies. None of this scratching around at the surface because they're too worried the electorate won't like them. Seize the opportunity. I mean, they should be doing that anyway, but definitely now.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Ian Volante »

I think he's scared of such a policy announcement being jumped all over by the press, as generally happens to any vaguely progressive radicalism. Whether he quietly actually would implement it anyway, I suspect maybe, but we shall see. This has been my primary voting issue in every election I've been able to vote in, so to actually see it happen would be amazing.
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Callum Todd »

First choice Yes, second choice No
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Marc Meakin »

I will settle for a referendum about having a referendum.
And that subsequent referendum to clearly state what it means, like the did with, ahem, the Brexit vote 😊
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Re: AV: Yes or No?

Post by Mark James »

Didn't want to take over the Christmas song thread with this so figured the reply would fit here:
Gavin Chipper wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 9:54 am
Mark James wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:16 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 9:47 pm

Or I should have worded the poll differently. First Past the Post voting is terrible. Consider the wording to be as needed for the poll to make sense.

If I change it now, I'm worried it will reset.
For me, nominating your preferred 5 was the proportional representation part and then the poll would determine the overall winner. And proportional representation is also usually done with ranked choice which isn't being done here. Sorry I am being nitpicky. You put in a lot of effort. It's a good poll. I guess I am just interested in what the results would have been if you could only pick one.
I'm glad you appreciate the effort. It's not supposed to be about proportional represention though. It's just that approval voting is better than first past the post for electing a single winner.
Nice one. I liked that video, although I tried it with a group of 7 friends once when deciding were to go for a meal. The choices were Italian, Mexican and Indian. 3 people were happy with Indian and Mexican and 3 people were happy with Italian and Indian and one person was only happy with Italian. So Indian was the winner but the one person who only wanted Italian said they didn't care about the result and were going Italian and so the group ended up splitting and 4 went Italian and 3 went Mexican. I guess everyone was happy.
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