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2020 Vision

Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:57 pm
by Marc Meakin
Remember Old Moore's Almanac.
It used to predict events for the coming year as farmer as I can remember
So I will make 10 random predictions and see how they pan out.
1. Liverpool will win the league 🙂😀😀
Ok scrub that this is my ten.
1) Donald Trump will win the presidency for a second term.
2) Tottenham will win the Champions League.
3) Prince Andrew will be Subpoenaed to New York by the FBI.
4) Prince Phillip Will die in the summer.
5) England Will win The Euros
6) Tenet will be the film of the year in terms of box office
7) David Attenborough will pass away after a short illness , Greta Thunberg will do the Eulogy
8) Jess Phillips will be the new Labour Leader.
9) Brexit will have a positive effect on the economy.
10) Great Britain will beat their record medal haul in the Olympics.
Now over to you.
It would be nice if everyone (anyone?) interested would get their ten predictions in before January is out
Only caveat is no more than two deaths predicted....unless you are predicting WW3.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Interesting idea, I'll have a go, providing a bit of justification if I can.
1) Roger Federer to announce his retirement after the Olympics. Think he's sticking around for one last shot at singles gold before calling it a day.
2) Rafa Nadal to beat Dominic Thiem 3-2 in the French Open final. It's been Nadal vs Thiem the past 2 years and going to go for it being a repeat match, except I think Thiem will push him closer than ever this year. Thiem is evidently strong on clay and is considerably younger, but I think Nadal will once again be victor after a long match.
3) Johanna Konta to reach a grand slam final. Hoping this will be her year, having bottled her major Wimbledon chance last year.
4) Prince Philip to reach his 99th birthday in increasingly frail health, I do think he will also survive the year though (maybe a new idea for a game - people who are near to death's door who will survive the year?). I believe he's going to barely reach 100, simply through stubbornness.
5) Kane Tanaka to reach the 3rd spot on the oldest verified people ever list. To do this she'd need to survive until the 19th September, attaining the age of 117y, 260d to tie for 3rd place. She's fairly robust physically (or as robust as you could realistically expect a 117 year old to be - still able to walk short distances with a walker and she looked alright in her 117th birthday video), as well as being very alert (apparently still beating staff at the board game Othello). Admittedly at 117 anything can happen and surviving nearly 9 months is a huge ask, but I think she'll make it.
6) Apterous to reach 3 million games. Here's hoping! We're currently at about 2.48 million.
7) Rupert Murdoch to die. Don't really know why, just got a feeling. Might be more hope than genuine belief though.
8) The Euromillions jackpot to hit the "cap" again (190m euros). Then some lucky sod to have their finances sorted for life.
9) Leeds to win the Championship. Seems one of the more safe bets of this list.
10) Some sort of new development to happen in relation to the Andrew Gosden disappearance. Andrew is the face of the "Find Every Child" campaign and is a really rather mysterious case.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:53 pm
by James Robinson
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
9) Leeds to win the Championship. Seems one of the more safe bets of this list.
Leeds United and safe bet, don't be so sure... :roll: :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:56 pm
by Elliott Mellor
James Robinson wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:53 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
9) Leeds to win the Championship. Seems one of the more safe bets of this list.
Leeds United and safe bet, don't be so sure... :roll: :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Considering they're currently top and most of my others are probably rather unlikely, I'd say the statement is correct :P

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:41 pm
by Jojo Apollo
My two pence worth :

1) Tyson Fury to beat Deontay Wilder in the rematch and beat Anthony Joshua later in the year
2) Keir Starmer to become Labour leader
3) Noah Lyles to win the Olympic 100m and 200m double
4) The Countdown high score record to be beaten
5) Judd Trump to become another victim of the Crucible hoodoo
6) Donald Trump to be re-elected
7) Nadal to face Federer in a slam with both having 20 slams each to their name and will be called "The battle of 20-20"
8) Germany to win Euro 2020
9) Actor Kirk Douglas to celebrate his 104th birthday
10) A new Dr Who spin-off series will be announced

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:21 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
5) Kane Tanaka to reach the 3rd spot on the oldest verified people ever list. To do this she'd need to survive until the 19th September, attaining the age of 117y, 260d to tie for 3rd place. She's fairly robust physically (or as robust as you could realistically expect a 117 year old to be - still able to walk short distances with a walker and she looked alright in her 117th birthday video), as well as being very alert (apparently still beating staff at the board game Othello). Admittedly at 117 anything can happen and surviving nearly 9 months is a huge ask, but I think she'll make it.
1. Kane Tanaka to reach 2nd spot after Jeanne Calment (well her daughter) is finally outed as a fraud.

I've just had a look here and she's only 10th currently - most people who reach 117 die that year!

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:36 am
by L'oisleatch McGraw
Jojo Apollo wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:41 pm
4) The Countdown high score record to be beaten
<snip>
7) Nadal to face Federer in a slam with both having 20 slams each to their name and will be called "The battle of 20-20"
Agree about #4.
And LOVE #7... it has to happen! :mrgreen:

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:23 am
by Marc Meakin
L'oisleatch McGraw wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:36 am
Jojo Apollo wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:41 pm
4) The Countdown high score record to be beaten
<snip>
7) Nadal to face Federer in a slam with both having 20 slams each to their name and will be called "The battle of 20-20"
Agree about #4.
And LOVE #7... it has to happen! :mrgreen:
I'm loving the albeit , belated interest in this thread.
Still waiting to here from our resident Nostradamus , Mark Deeks

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:03 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:21 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
5) Kane Tanaka to reach the 3rd spot on the oldest verified people ever list. To do this she'd need to survive until the 19th September, attaining the age of 117y, 260d to tie for 3rd place. She's fairly robust physically (or as robust as you could realistically expect a 117 year old to be - still able to walk short distances with a walker and she looked alright in her 117th birthday video), as well as being very alert (apparently still beating staff at the board game Othello). Admittedly at 117 anything can happen and surviving nearly 9 months is a huge ask, but I think she'll make it.
1. Kane Tanaka to reach 2nd spot after Jeanne Calment (well her daughter) is finally outed as a fraud.

I've just had a look here and she's only 10th currently - most people who reach 117 die that year!
:roll:
Gevin to stop believing conspiracy theories that have zero credible evidence.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:11 pm
by Jojo Apollo
Marc Meakin wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:57 pm

8) Jess Phillips will be the new Labour Leader.
Unlucky Marc :https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51195059 and it's not even February :P ;)

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:15 pm
by Marc Meakin
Yeah I saw that already.
Hope I can get lucky with the others though

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:06 am
by Jojo Apollo
Jojo Apollo wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:41 pm
My two pence worth :

1) Tyson Fury to beat Deontay Wilder in the rematch and beat Anthony Joshua later in the year
2) Keir Starmer to become Labour leader
3) Noah Lyles to win the Olympic 100m and 200m double
4) The Countdown high score record to be beaten
5) Judd Trump to become another victim of the Crucible hoodoo
6) Donald Trump to be re-elected
7) Nadal to face Federer in a slam with both having 20 slams each to their name and will be called "The battle of 20-20"
8) Germany to win Euro 2020
9) Actor Kirk Douglas to celebrate his 104th birthday
10) A new Dr Who spin-off series will be announced
Sadly he never made it to 104, RIP Kirk Douglas https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51394855

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:29 am
by Marc Meakin
That was probably the most unlikely of all your predictions

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sat May 30, 2020 8:20 am
by Mark James
Suprised no one went for global pandemic.

Really scuppered alot of people's guesses. Even Liverpool winning the league was looking dodgy for a bit.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:21 am
by Elliott Mellor
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
Interesting idea, I'll have a go, providing a bit of justification if I can.
1) Roger Federer to announce his retirement after the Olympics. Think he's sticking around for one last shot at singles gold before calling it a day.
2) Rafa Nadal to beat Dominic Thiem 3-2 in the French Open final. It's been Nadal vs Thiem the past 2 years and going to go for it being a repeat match, except I think Thiem will push him closer than ever this year. Thiem is evidently strong on clay and is considerably younger, but I think Nadal will once again be victor after a long match.
3) Johanna Konta to reach a grand slam final. Hoping this will be her year, having bottled her major Wimbledon chance last year.
4) Prince Philip to reach his 99th birthday in increasingly frail health, I do think he will also survive the year though (maybe a new idea for a game - people who are near to death's door who will survive the year?). I believe he's going to barely reach 100, simply through stubbornness.
5) Kane Tanaka to reach the 3rd spot on the oldest verified people ever list. To do this she'd need to survive until the 19th September, attaining the age of 117y, 260d to tie for 3rd place. She's fairly robust physically (or as robust as you could realistically expect a 117 year old to be - still able to walk short distances with a walker and she looked alright in her 117th birthday video), as well as being very alert (apparently still beating staff at the board game Othello). Admittedly at 117 anything can happen and surviving nearly 9 months is a huge ask, but I think she'll make it.
6) Apterous to reach 3 million games. Here's hoping! We're currently at about 2.48 million.
7) Rupert Murdoch to die. Don't really know why, just got a feeling. Might be more hope than genuine belief though.
8) The Euromillions jackpot to hit the "cap" again (190m euros). Then some lucky sod to have their finances sorted for life.
9) Leeds to win the Championship. Seems one of the more safe bets of this list.
10) Some sort of new development to happen in relation to the Andrew Gosden disappearance. Andrew is the face of the "Find Every Child" campaign and is a really rather mysterious case.
Nobody's been active on this thread but I'm happy to be able to have had three successes (well, 2.5...if you're insisting that Philip needs to survive the year for my prediction for him to count), in light of Kane Tanaka tying and subsequently surpassing Nabi Tajima in longevity terms. What I like most about this is that she actually had a celebration for it, which included a specially made t-shirt. She's very aware of her status and such lucidity at an advanced age ought to be lauded.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:04 pm
by Gavin Chipper
I looked up Kane Tanaka quite recently actually to see how she's getting along. She's passed all the other 117ers but there's a big gap now to Sarah Knauss at 119.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:28 pm
by Marc Meakin
Well at least I think I've got the Tenet one right

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:21 pm
by Ian Volante
Marc Meakin wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:28 pm
Well at least I think I've got the Tenet one right
Only $200M to go...

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:54 am
by Marc Meakin
Ian Volante wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:21 pm
Marc Meakin wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:28 pm
Well at least I think I've got the Tenet one right
Only $200M to go...
I'm still hopeful as it hasn't come out in India yet.
I'm shocked so many people watched Bad Boys For Life

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:02 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:03 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:21 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:49 pm
5) Kane Tanaka to reach the 3rd spot on the oldest verified people ever list. To do this she'd need to survive until the 19th September, attaining the age of 117y, 260d to tie for 3rd place. She's fairly robust physically (or as robust as you could realistically expect a 117 year old to be - still able to walk short distances with a walker and she looked alright in her 117th birthday video), as well as being very alert (apparently still beating staff at the board game Othello). Admittedly at 117 anything can happen and surviving nearly 9 months is a huge ask, but I think she'll make it.
1. Kane Tanaka to reach 2nd spot after Jeanne Calment (well her daughter) is finally outed as a fraud.

I've just had a look here and she's only 10th currently - most people who reach 117 die that year!
:roll:
Gevin to stop believing conspiracy theories that have zero credible evidence.
Well Kane Tanaka did survive 2020 and is now 118 years old! Of course every extra person who makes it beyond the 117 barrier gives a bit of extra credence to Jeanne Calment's case, although there is still obviously a massive gap between 118 and 122.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:31 pm
by Elliott Mellor
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:02 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:03 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:21 pm


1. Kane Tanaka to reach 2nd spot after Jeanne Calment (well her daughter) is finally outed as a fraud.

I've just had a look here and she's only 10th currently - most people who reach 117 die that year!
:roll:
Gevin to stop believing conspiracy theories that have zero credible evidence.
Well Kane Tanaka did survive 2020 and is now 118 years old! Of course every extra person who makes it beyond the 117 barrier gives a bit of extra credence to Jeanne Calment's case, although there is still obviously a massive gap between 118 and 122.
There are, quite probably, a very small number of 117+ claims that are undiscovered/unvalidated - only around 15% of the population is actually verifiable due to not many places (especially the poorer countries) keeping accurate documents 100+ years ago. But working with what is currently validated, Kane is definitely something of a massive statistical outlier. What age would she need to attain, do you think, for you to finally accept that Jeanne was probably just a legitimate freak outlier? 119? 120? At what point would you start acknowledging that all the documents and validation surrounding her age were actually legitimate? As a further note to this, what happens if Kane reaches 123, for instance (obviously that would be outrageously unlikely, but still)? You seem to have no problem believing her age is legitimate.

I want to stress again that Jeanne has more documents, and has been more thoroughly validated than any supercentenarian to ever exist (though we've had this discussion many times before, and I have zero desire to rehash this). I'm genuinely curious as to what needs to happen before you could accept her as being likely legit.

As a side note, I actually got 4 of my predictions correct, so I believe that makes me the champion predictor (unless I missed someone who got more). Are we doing a 2021 version or has the time for that expired?

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:08 pm
by Marc Meakin
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:31 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:02 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:03 pm


:roll:
Gevin to stop believing conspiracy theories that have zero credible evidence.
Well Kane Tanaka did survive 2020 and is now 118 years old! Of course every extra person who makes it beyond the 117 barrier gives a bit of extra credence to Jeanne Calment's case, although there is still obviously a massive gap between 118 and 122.
There are, quite probably, a very small number of 117+ claims that are undiscovered/unvalidated - only around 15% of the population is actually verifiable due to not many places (especially the poorer countries) keeping accurate documents 100+ years ago. But working with what is currently validated, Kane is definitely something of a massive statistical outlier. What age would she need to attain, do you think, for you to finally accept that Jeanne was probably just a legitimate freak outlier? 119? 120? At what point would you start acknowledging that all the documents and validation surrounding her age were actually legitimate? As a further note to this, what happens if Kane reaches 123, for instance (obviously that would be outrageously unlikely, but still)? You seem to have no problem believing her age is legitimate.

I want to stress again that Jeanne has more documents, and has been more thoroughly validated than any supercentenarian to ever exist (though we've had this discussion many times before, and I have zero desire to rehash this). I'm genuinely curious as to what needs to happen before you could accept her as being likely legit.

As a side note, I actually got 4 of my predictions correct, so I believe that makes me the champion predictor (unless I missed someone who got more). Are we doing a 2021 version or has the time for that expired?
I did do a thread called Old Meakins Almanac which didnt get any response.
Probably the obscure reference to Old Moores Almanac which probably went over the heads of anyone under 55 😊

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:34 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:31 pm

There are, quite probably, a very small number of 117+ claims that are undiscovered/unvalidated - only around 15% of the population is actually verifiable due to not many places (especially the poorer countries) keeping accurate documents 100+ years ago. But working with what is currently validated, Kane is definitely something of a massive statistical outlier. What age would she need to attain, do you think, for you to finally accept that Jeanne was probably just a legitimate freak outlier? 119? 120? At what point would you start acknowledging that all the documents and validation surrounding her age were actually legitimate? As a further note to this, what happens if Kane reaches 123, for instance (obviously that would be outrageously unlikely, but still)? You seem to have no problem believing her age is legitimate.

I want to stress again that Jeanne has more documents, and has been more thoroughly validated than any supercentenarian to ever exist (though we've had this discussion many times before, and I have zero desire to rehash this). I'm genuinely curious as to what needs to happen before you could accept her as being likely legit.

As a side note, I actually got 4 of my predictions correct, so I believe that makes me the champion predictor (unless I missed someone who got more). Are we doing a 2021 version or has the time for that expired?
My belief/disbelief isn't a binary thing. I think I originally said that I was 99% sure that Jeanne Calment (or the person who was supposedly Jeanne Calment) was a fraud. Maybe that's a little high, but if I had to say either way, I'd still go with fraud. I don't really know much about Kane Tanaka, but obviously if she does reach 123, that will have to come with an amount of suspicion. Just like you have to treat all world class track and field athletes with a degree of suspicion even in the absence of any specific evidence.

But with Jeanne, the documents are a red herring. The dispute isn't about whether she existed or whether she was born in 1875. It's about whether "the swap" happened.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:38 am
by Elliott Mellor
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:34 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:31 pm

There are, quite probably, a very small number of 117+ claims that are undiscovered/unvalidated - only around 15% of the population is actually verifiable due to not many places (especially the poorer countries) keeping accurate documents 100+ years ago. But working with what is currently validated, Kane is definitely something of a massive statistical outlier. What age would she need to attain, do you think, for you to finally accept that Jeanne was probably just a legitimate freak outlier? 119? 120? At what point would you start acknowledging that all the documents and validation surrounding her age were actually legitimate? As a further note to this, what happens if Kane reaches 123, for instance (obviously that would be outrageously unlikely, but still)? You seem to have no problem believing her age is legitimate.

I want to stress again that Jeanne has more documents, and has been more thoroughly validated than any supercentenarian to ever exist (though we've had this discussion many times before, and I have zero desire to rehash this). I'm genuinely curious as to what needs to happen before you could accept her as being likely legit.

As a side note, I actually got 4 of my predictions correct, so I believe that makes me the champion predictor (unless I missed someone who got more). Are we doing a 2021 version or has the time for that expired?
My belief/disbelief isn't a binary thing. I think I originally said that I was 99% sure that Jeanne Calment (or the person who was supposedly Jeanne Calment) was a fraud. Maybe that's a little high, but if I had to say either way, I'd still go with fraud. I don't really know much about Kane Tanaka, but obviously if she does reach 123, that will have to come with an amount of suspicion. Just like you have to treat all world class track and field athletes with a degree of suspicion even in the absence of any specific evidence.

But with Jeanne, the documents are a red herring. The dispute isn't about whether she existed or whether she was born in 1875. It's about whether "the swap" happened.
You mean the swap that would have required Yvonne to masquerade as her mother, a well known person in local circles, and for nobody at all to notice? Or if they did, they were somehow silenced? Or the swap that would have required nobody to notice that it was Jeanne, and not Yvonne, in the casket at the funeral (since it was open-casket)? That doesn't sound especially realistic to me, but if you want to believe this conspiracy theory then by all means go ahead. The identity swap was a theory considered while Jeanne was still alive, by the people who validated the case, and the people who have checked and rechecked the case (all of whom are far more qualified in this area of research than you or I) - it was certainly viewed with a high degree of skepticism at the time, but even rigorous analysis found no evidence of any such swap.

Though I'd suggest we're getting a little off topic here.

Re: 2020 Vision

Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:12 pm
by Sam Cappleman-Lynes
Things are heating up in the old person fandom.