Eurovision Song Contest 2014

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Who will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2014?

Poll ended at Sat May 10, 2014 10:07 pm

Armenia
0
No votes
Latvia
0
No votes
Estonia
0
No votes
Sweden
0
No votes
Iceland
0
No votes
Albania
0
No votes
Russia
0
No votes
Azerbaijan
0
No votes
Ukraine
2
40%
Belgium
1
20%
Moldova
0
No votes
San Marino
1
20%
Portugal
0
No votes
The Netherlands
0
No votes
Montenegro
0
No votes
Hungary
0
No votes
Malta
0
No votes
Israel
0
No votes
Norway
0
No votes
Georgia
0
No votes
Poland
0
No votes
Austria
0
No votes
Lithuania
0
No votes
Finland
0
No votes
Ireland
0
No votes
Belarus
0
No votes
FYR Macedonia
0
No votes
Switzerland
0
No votes
Greece
0
No votes
Slovenia
0
No votes
Romania
1
20%
Denmark
0
No votes
France
0
No votes
Germany
0
No votes
Italy
0
No votes
Spain
0
No votes
United Kingdom
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 5

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Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Apr 07, 2014 10:07 pm

Time to open this year's thread.

My thoughts in detail are here: http://rhysbenjamin.blogspot.co.uk/2014 ... eview.html - but I think it'll be between Armenia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Indeed, the United Kingdom are currently leading the ESCNation poll* and Molly got the biggest cheer in Amsterdam at Eurovision In Concert.

Our entry is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFqYbibLh8k

Other highlights include 2008 X Factor finalist Ruth Lorenzo representing Spain, Valentina Monetta returning for San Marino YET AGAIN, the rather bonkers French entry, "Moustache", and the viral Polish entry.

My personal favourites are (in this order) Romania, United Kingdom, Portugal, Greece, and Ukraine.

*by 13 points when converted to the ESC format. If it was pre-2004 style then Sweden lead the UK by one point.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:22 pm

While we certainly have a chance of winning, I wouldn't base anything on a poll in an English-language forum where I expect Brits make up the largest number. A large number of British fans also travel to Amsterdam each year and the Brits are just happy to be competitive.

While it's nice that the UK have put in an effort this year, I don't want us to win. It's mainly due to my general hatred of world peace songs at Eurovision. It's cynical, lazy and incredibly lame.

My favourite entry this year is from Finland, with probably ESC's best rock entry since Lordi. I also like Israel and Germany. Of the leading candidates to win, my money's on Armenia.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Sun May 04, 2014 8:19 pm

The Ukraine has got to be worth a few quid each-way @ 12/1 due to the number of "sympathy" votes they are likely to get because of the current political situation there.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Mon May 05, 2014 5:55 pm

Steven M. McCann wrote:The Ukraine has got to be worth a few quid each-way @ 12/1 due to the number of "sympathy" votes they are likely to get because of the current political situation there.
They're in with a real chance, irrespective of any sympathy voting. It's a very open year and Ukraine have a decent song, which may be a bit underrated due to the big mess that it was at the national final stage. "Tick-Tock" has been significantly revamped and Ukraine always has a very impressive stage show.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Tue May 06, 2014 7:34 pm

After watching the guy from Armenia in tonight's semi-final, I was thinking to myself, how on earth is this guy favourite?
Well he ain't anymore! his price is drifting like a barge!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Tue May 06, 2014 9:09 pm

Very shocked tonight. I only got 7 out of 10.

Thought it would be Armenia, Estonia, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Moldova, Portugal, and Hungary.

Amazed that Estonia, Belgium, and Portugal didn't get through!
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Tue May 06, 2014 9:52 pm

Tonight's first semi-final was very hard going, on the plus side, I think I have seen the winner (Sweden) and I'm convinced more than ever that the Ukraine won't be too far away.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Wed May 07, 2014 1:03 pm

Does somebody know something? before last nights first semi-final the Netherlands were well over a 100/1 to win it they are now around 8/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Wed May 07, 2014 10:02 pm

Steven M. McCann wrote:Does somebody know something? before last nights first semi-final the Netherlands were well over a 100/1 to win it they are now around 8/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They were amazing, though, weren't they? I, and everyone else, assumed that a nice quiet little song like theirs would fail to stand out, but their staging was fantastic. It was really intimate and engaging. They've gone from a no-hoper to a contender. Juries will love them especially.

Armenia was a bit of a disappointment. It didn't quite work on stage as I'd hoped. I don't think it helped going on first. I always find it takes me a couple of acts to get used to the stage and settle in for the evening.

I don't think Sweden will win. I find it a bit too slick, a bit too cheesy. Sanna Nielsen also looks older to me than her 29 years. It's a bit mumsy. The Swedish preselection, Melodifestivalen, dominates the Eurovision fan agenda and she's the darling of the Melodifestivalen fans. I think that skews the odds a little bit.

My money is now on Ukraine. The hamster wheel worked a dream. It gave me the biggest winner vibes by far. If a man in a box can get Azerbaijan second last year against a runaway favourite, Ukraine's superior gimmick can take the title. What annoys me is that if they win people will say it's only because of Crimea.

The running order may yet throw a spanner in the works. Ukraine, Armenia and Sweden have all been drawn into the first half of the final. I imagine that the producers will try to make it up to Armenia for putting them 1st in the semi and give Aram MP3 number 13 on Saturday. Netherlands and (worryingly) the UK have got better starting positions later in the show.

This is the most open Eurovision for over ten years. I wouldn't rule out a late run from someone in semi 2 either (Israel?). I hope it ends up this close on the scoreboard.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed May 07, 2014 11:28 pm

Martin Bishop wrote:
Steven M. McCann wrote:Does somebody know something? before last nights first semi-final the Netherlands were well over a 100/1 to win it they are now around 8/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They were amazing, though, weren't they? I, and everyone else, assumed that a nice quiet little song like theirs would fail to stand out, but their staging was fantastic. It was really intimate and engaging. They've gone from a no-hoper to a contender. Juries will love them especially.
My money is now on Ukraine. The hamster wheel worked a dream. It gave me the biggest winner vibes by far. If a man in a box can get Azerbaijan second last year against a runaway favourite, Ukraine's superior gimmick can take the title. What annoys me is that if they win people will say it's only because of Crimea.
I'm not massively into Eurovision but I normally watch it, but because of this thread I've just watched the Netherlands and the Ukraine entry. The Netherlands entry is just a bit dull. I'd be surprised to see that win. The Ukraine song is pretty generic Eurovision stuff and I don't see the hamster wheel doing all that much for it really, so if they win it probably will be largely because of Crimea.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Thu May 08, 2014 3:37 am

My brother wanted to back the UK's Molly in our local Paddy Power Bookmakers, thinking she would be priced around 12/1 the same as on the internet (Betfair) he was quoted only 6/1!!!!!! (he's still in shock!).
Have the composers of the Swedish entry been listening a little bit too much to Miley Cyrus's Wrecking Ball?,
ditto the Dutch entry and The Police's Every Breath You Take.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Thu May 08, 2014 4:19 pm

I can't see anyone but the UK winning now, unless we get screwed over by the producers.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Thu May 08, 2014 5:30 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Martin Bishop wrote:
Steven M. McCann wrote:Does somebody know something? before last nights first semi-final the Netherlands were well over a 100/1 to win it they are now around 8/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They were amazing, though, weren't they? I, and everyone else, assumed that a nice quiet little song like theirs would fail to stand out, but their staging was fantastic. It was really intimate and engaging. They've gone from a no-hoper to a contender. Juries will love them especially.
My money is now on Ukraine. The hamster wheel worked a dream. It gave me the biggest winner vibes by far. If a man in a box can get Azerbaijan second last year against a runaway favourite, Ukraine's superior gimmick can take the title. What annoys me is that if they win people will say it's only because of Crimea.
I'm not massively into Eurovision but I normally watch it, but because of this thread I've just watched the Netherlands and the Ukraine entry. The Netherlands entry is just a bit dull. I'd be surprised to see that win. The Ukraine song is pretty generic Eurovision stuff and I don't see the hamster wheel doing all that much for it really, so if they win it probably will be largely because of Crimea.
I'm not pretending Ukraine's song is any sort of masterpiece, but there isn't an entry this year that ticks all the winner boxes. It's a pleasant uptempo pop song sung by a pretty girl and staged really well. That may be enough this year. The political situation may help a little, but it won't get them over the line on its own.

I found the Dutch entry a bit dull too when I first listened to it. I was only won over by the live performance. My instinct is that it's still too gentle too win, but I'd love to be proven wrong. Only last year we were still wondering if Netherlands would finally qualify for the first time. To go from eight years at the bottom of the pile to second favourite now is remarkable.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Eoin Monaghan » Thu May 08, 2014 5:34 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:I can't see anyone but the UK winning now, unless we get screwed over by the producers.
... you are aware of how Eurovision works, right?

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Thu May 08, 2014 8:24 pm

My predictions for tonight:

Israel, Norway, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, Greece, Romania.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Thu May 08, 2014 8:44 pm

How very predictable, the money's pouring on Austria's bearded "Lady", 50/1 yesterday, 8/1 today!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Thu May 08, 2014 9:06 pm

WOW. What a shock.

I got 7, missed out on Malta, Switzerland, and Slovenia.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Thu May 08, 2014 10:24 pm

Very disappointed for Israel. Loved their song, but think Mei came across a little scary at the start. Going on second certainly didn't help either. Going second to last really helped Slovenia, though. I thought it was underrated going in. The late position and strong staging got them in, though.

Austria's bearded lady has made a charge up the bookies' odds. She's joining Armenia, Sweden and Ukraine in the first half, though. It will be interesting to see how the producers squeeze them all in spots 7-13. It will take a brave person to put one of the contenders in the spots of death. I'm looking forward to see how that pans out tomorrow. For now it's advantage UK and Netherlands.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Sat May 10, 2014 2:24 pm

The running order. DR are braver than I gave them credit for.

1. Ukraine
2. Belarus
3. Azerbaijan
4. Iceland
5. Norway
6. Romania
7. Armenia
8. Montenegro
9. Poland
10. Greece
11. Austria
12. Germany
13. Sweden
14. France
15. Russia
16. Italy
17. Slovenia
18. Finland
19. Spain
20. Switzerland
21. Hungary
22. Malta
23. Denmark
24. The Netherlands
25. San Marino
26. United Kingdom

We can forget about Ukraine winning. The producers have effectively decided that's not going to happen. In contrast, Denmark have given Sweden the best placing they possibly could, while Austria has a decent slot as well.

It's also notable that they haven't put any of the contenders in the traditional winners' corridor of 17-22 (unless you count Hungary).

Last spot isn't bad for UK. I did a quick bit of maths and last has given an average of 2.65 points per country since widespread televoting came in (not including the hand-picked last spot for Ireland in 2013). That's better than the overall average of 2.45, but worse than the 3 points plus you can get a little earlier.

24 is a good position for Netherlands. The antepenultimate position hasn't had a winner for while, which is why it's not thought of as a winning spot, but my calculations give a whopping average of 3.5 points per country in that position.

These stats are from a fairly small data set and I haven't bothered to do any significance testing, but still interesting I think.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Sat May 10, 2014 3:10 pm

Now that the fancy prices on Austria & Netherlands are long gone, viewers wanting a financial interest could do worse than back Sweden at around 11/4, good luck whatever you back!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat May 10, 2014 9:20 pm

Just listened to them all. I thought it was a fairly flat standard. When I said Ukraine could only win with the help of Crimea, I'll should have added Crimea or a generally weak standard even by Eurovision levels. But Switzerland is my favourite. Best of a bad bunch.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat May 10, 2014 10:10 pm

Austria was shite. It's winning purely because of the bearded lady.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Sat May 10, 2014 10:29 pm

Absolute farce! next year Russell Brand should drag up and represent the UK!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Sat May 10, 2014 11:59 pm

Disappointed. I spend so long trying to argue that Eurovision isn't just some cheesy campfest and that there are good songs too, then the bloody bearded drag queen wins.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Sun May 11, 2014 12:34 am

Turns out the beard was a master stroke, without it, he would have looked just like any other run of the mill "female" singer, or worse, a Dana International wannabe!,
with the beard, nobody could be in any doubt he was a man!
People in the "know" were able to back the first & second at huge prices in the knowledge that they had both won their respective semi-finals.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sun May 11, 2014 6:32 pm

Martin Bishop wrote:I found the Dutch entry a bit dull too when I first listened to it. I was only won over by the live performance. My instinct is that it's still too gentle too win, but I'd love to be proven wrong. Only last year we were still wondering if Netherlands would finally qualify for the first time. To go from eight years at the bottom of the pile to second favourite now is remarkable.
I'm not sure what's so remarkable. Each year there's a different song and a different act. One doesn't really affect the other. It's no secret what sort of songs actually do well, so any country could produce a successful song if they really put the effort in even if they'd come last for the previous 100 years.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Sun May 11, 2014 8:21 pm

Apparently the Polish song got the most votes from the UK public, but because the "UK Jury" hated it, the song received no points! from the UK.
You couldn't make it up!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Ian Volante » Mon May 12, 2014 12:50 pm

Steven M. McCann wrote:Apparently the Polish song got the most votes from the UK public, but because the "UK Jury" hated it, the song received no points! from the UK.
You couldn't make it up!
Seems fair, the song was bollocks, and the British public aren't conspicuous with their taste.

EDIT: Oh, and breasts.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Mon May 12, 2014 3:07 pm

Ian, Re:Poland, I can only assume you haven't seen the Official Video, featuring scantily clad Megan Fox & Rachel Riley lookalikes!

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Mon May 12, 2014 5:05 pm

Agree with Ian regarding Poland, the 'choreography' as it were was a cheap and contrived attempt to get viewer votes which clearly worked (I can only assume Europe's voting population is solely comprised of sex starved old men/virginal 14 year olds who last saw tits when they were breastfed). Good for the jury to ignore it and judge the song on its merits - or, more accurately, lack of. Wonder how many of the people up in arms about this are the same people who are up in arms about political voting or gimmicky songs winning?

As for the rest... genuinely a bit gutted France finished last; their song was a bit silly but it was so catchy and tongue in cheek. Enjoyed Iceland for similar reasons. Think Ukraine would have made the top 5 if they hadn't been first on. Netherlands' entry was really nice but the woman was flat in the first bit which let it down a bit. No idea how Sweden and Armenia made the top 5: absolute gash, especially disappointing given the praise on here for Sweden (were we listening to the same song?). Too many ballads as usual. Austria's was one of the better non-uptempo ones imo. And poor form from the audience to boo the Russian girls - not like they ordered the annexation of Crimea.

Think that's all.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Mon May 12, 2014 6:24 pm

The Eurovision voting demographic of horny schoolboys and dirty old men (according to Jennifer) must have been counter balanced by juries made up of mostly gays,lesbians, transgender and women, or else we wouldn't have got the result we got!
Do these juries think they are arbitrars of taste?

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by JimBentley » Mon May 12, 2014 8:03 pm

Steven M. McCann wrote:The Eurovision voting demographic...
There's a full breakdown of the jury and televote results for each country here and it's really interesting stuff (if you're into that sort of thing). It's quite striking how many of the Eastern European juries rank Austria and Sweden (the two flip-flopping favourites immediately prior to the live final) consistently 20th or worse of 25, it's almost like they were trying to influence the result or something.
Jennifer Steadman wrote:...genuinely a bit gutted France finished last; their song was a bit silly but it was so catchy and tongue in cheek.
First time ever that France have come last, apparently, which surprised me. But it provides a tangential link to my favourite Eurovision entry of recent memory (I'm almost certain I've linked to it before but I don't apologise because it is fantastic) - Sebastian Tellier's Divine. He had three proto-Conchitas amongst his backing singers, yet came only 19th. How times change!
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Ian Volante » Mon May 12, 2014 8:31 pm

Steven M. McCann wrote:The Eurovision voting demographic of horny schoolboys and dirty old men (according to Jennifer) must have been counter balanced by juries made up of mostly gays,lesbians, transgender and women, or else we wouldn't have got the result we got!
Do these juries think they are arbitrars of taste?
Or music professionals who are able to stop thinking about nipples for more than three minutes at a time?
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by JimBentley » Mon May 12, 2014 9:27 pm

Oh, also:

Image
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Martin Bishop » Wed May 14, 2014 8:32 pm

I actually quite like the Polish song musically and was disappointed that they went with such cheap staging. It brings the combination of contemporary and traditional ethnic music a lot of my fellow hardcore Eurovision fans enjoy and it's been a big hit in Poland. The vocals weren't as good as I'd like, though. Cleo could have done with more backing vocalists instead of boobs. I was hoping they'd stage it a bit like in the video below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVTeylIIaWw

The way the jury and televote is added up was changed in 2013 to make it possible for the two to cancel each other out as they did with Poland. If anyone's interested, I ran the numbers to see how far it affects the result.

http://thankyoueurope.wordpress.com/201 ... -12-style/
Jennifer Steadman wrote:And poor form from the audience to boo the Russian girls - not like they ordered the annexation of Crimea.
I wouldn't say they were completely innocent. Take a look at their lyrics.

Living on the edge
closer to the crime
cross the line a step at a time

Now maybe there's a place
maybe there's a time
maybe there's a day you'll be mine

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Thu May 15, 2014 8:10 pm

A treat for Eurovision fans, not to mention horny schoolboys & dirty old men!, Kylie's on the BBC's "Red Button" for the next day or two.

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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014

Post by Steven M. McCann » Mon May 26, 2014 7:14 pm

11-00pm Tonight BBC4.......... ABBA at the BBC.
I know it's been on before, but it's still good fun!

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