C4Countdown vs Apterous

[Charlie Reams]

Following the fun and success of the C4Countdown vs old c4countdown game, you are cordially invited to participate in this new game: c4countdown vs apterous. The aim is to predict on which date (if any) the number of games on apterous will exceed the number posts on C4Countdown. The prize is the same Mars bar that I have been handing out for several years now.

My entry is: 17 February.

[Kai Laddiman]

Kinda obvious really. (12th March)

[Eoin Monaghan]

4th July

[Jimmy Gough]

18th of February.

[Joseph Bolas]

Kinda obvious really. (12th March)

I agree with Kai that it will be in March, but I think it will be earlier than the 12th.

My guess would be the 3rd (50 days from today).

[John Bradley]

March 9th

[Ben Wilson]

March 8th, for no better reason than it's Gyles Brandreth's birthday (and also my mum's).

[Kirk Bevins]

March 23rd.

[JimBentley]

Since my fairly random and slightly disturbing success on the other one, I'm not sure I can enter this. Because I would surely be right, and two in a row like that would probably convince me that I'm like Jesus and walk on water and stuff, and that's never a good idea.

[Michael Wallace]

Behold!

(see the next one down - I don't want to clog up the thread with countless graphs)

I shall make my prediction once I've done some actual work and thrown some statistics at this bee-hatch.

edit: Obviously the x-axis is wrong, but I'm currently fiddling to make a better, more exciting graph, so watch this space...

[tonywarren]

end of January & couldn't you splash out for a new mars bar. A silver cup can stand being the same and passed around, but a mars bar could become well mankified

[Michael Wallace]

So I tried adding some stuff to the graph, to see if there were any exciting patterns.



The first purple line is the time that Countdown was off air during the summer (26/07 to 24/08) - check out the levelling off you might expect.

The second purple line is the period Charlie was (first) on air (15/10 to 24/10).

The circle is Christmas day (I'd hypothesised that the slight, short, levelling off you can see in both curves a little to the left was Christmas, but that seems unlikely now.

If people could think of any other important points to plot that may be associated with postage/apterous playing that'd be cool. I might add when finals/CoC filming happened, actually.

edit: I've now added signups data - it's scaled (by a factor of 33.78 at the moment - I'll look to getting that put on the graph somewhere, since it'll change as new data come in). Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?

[Charlie Reams]

Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?

The particularly heartening thing is that, not only is there a huge leap following my debut episode, but also the trend settles back to a much higher rate than before. This place is really growing.

[Kai Laddiman]

Note the huge jump in signups coinciding with Charlie's time on our screens - neat, eh?

Is it me or is there also an increase when I was on?

[Richard Brittain]

You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that. Having a game of Apterous generally takes much longer than making a post, and there are people here who make posts almost every minute. I don't think there will ever be a convergence point.

[Dinos Sfyris]

Feb 14th. I predict a mass lonely nerd apto-fuck orgy that day (not including me obviously)

[Dan Vanniasingham]

You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that. Having a game of Apterous generally takes much longer than making a post, and there are people here who make posts almost every minute. I don't think there will ever be a convergence point.

Using my own highly scientific formula, I concur:


Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts
Apterous games feat. Kirk Bevins approx = Number of posts moaning that Apterous is down
Apterous games feat. Paul Howe approx = Number of posts made by Charlie Reams informing everyone that Apterous is down/up/shaking it all about
Daily Duel games approx = Number of posts commenting on strangeness of new set design, whereby contestants now check each others workings, and whether this was an accidental design fault
Apterous games feat. all others LESS THAN Number of posts made by Jason Larsen, let alone other members


Flawless logic.

[Joseph Bolas]

Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.

That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.

[Clare Sudbery]

10th July

[Dan Vanniasingham]

Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.

That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.

No, cheating in the duel isn't funny. Cheating against bots is hilarious though.

But to revise my theory a touch, Aptostats have you down as playing 20 games against bots since 23:35 on the 9th, approx 4 days ago.

C4Countdown stats have your current posting rate at approx 5.68 posts per day i.e. more than 20 in 4 days. If I continue half-heartedly winding you up - this will increase.

Ergo, apterous will never catch up. Richard Brittain speaks The Truth.

[Phil Reynolds]

You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that.

Who said anything about "per day"?

[Charlie Reams]

You mean to tell me that there are more Apterous games per day than posts on this forum? I don't believe that.

Who said anything about "per day"?

Maybe I missed the joke but, since C4C pre-dates Apterous by about 6 months, Apterous certainly needs more games per day than C4C has posts if the lines are ever to cross.

[Junaid Mubeen]

Apterous games feat. Joseph Bolas and Apterous Waldorf approx = Joseph Bolas posts.

That's not funny., besides the numbers aren't even close.

I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long just to get your rating up by a point. But if you're gonna cheat, why not crank it up a notch and take down Prime? Or at least Caesar? It makes no sense!!!

[Michael Wallace]

I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long

These are not pleasant images

Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?

[Junaid Mubeen]

I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long

These are not pleasant images

Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?

Nope, this graph might actually have some benefit to the real world. Albeit, the Countdown world.

[Phil Reynolds]

Maybe I missed the joke but, since C4C pre-dates Apterous by about 6 months, Apterous certainly needs more games per day than C4C has posts if the lines are ever to cross.

Don't confuse me with facts.

[Dinos Sfyris]

I think it's bloody hilarious. I always thought it quite sad that you pounded Waldorf's arse all day long

These are not pleasant images

Also, is it bad that making graphs like this is more fun than my PhD?

A graph can never be a bad thing

FACT

[Jimmy Gough]

Well, I probably play the largest percentage of apterous games and from Monday I'll be back to playing my usual obsessive amount

[Kai Laddiman]

Ergo, apterous will never catch up.

I agree, it's just that I might as well try for the Mars bar.

[Ian Volante]

6th of December, cos it's a nice day.

[Gavin Chipper]

Apterous might overtake and get reovertaken and overtake again (and not even having to count get reovertaken immediately afterwards because there is a flurry of posts, but a while later). Would we get extra points for predicting that correctly?

[Kai Laddiman]

Feb 14th. I predict a mass lonely nerd apto-fuck orgy that day (not including me obviously)

Looks like this possibility has been ruled out.

[Oliver Garner]

Bump,
Looks like it will be in the next couple of weeks

[Oliver Garner]

Not quite sure when but it has now been done

[Kai Laddiman]

POW! I win!

[Ben Hunter]

POW! I win!

A virtual Mars Bar is winging its way to you as we speak.

[Neil Zussman]

Apterous might overtake and get reovertaken and overtake again (and not even having to count get reovertaken immediately afterwards because there is a flurry of posts, but a while later). Would we get extra points for predicting that correctly?

With Apterous down for an extended period as it is now, this prediction becomes more likely (though I'm not sure whether the gap is already too large for this to happen).
What's the next milestone achieveable?

[Charlie Reams]

What's the next milestone achieveable?

Time when total number of C4C posts is exceeded by total number of games played by Jimmy Gough? Must be fairly imminent.