The CoC Predictions Game

All discussion relevant to Countdown that is not too spoilerific. New members: come here first to introduce yourself. We don't bite, or at least rarely.
Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am

IF YOU WISH TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS, PLEASE *PRIVATE* MESSAGE ME YOUR PREDICTIONS. SPEAK IN VAGUE TERMS, OR SMACK TALK HERE BY ALL MEANS, BUT LET’S KEEP THE RESULTS INTERESTING.

After a few betting games on the outcomes of finals with various success rates, and when people can’t actually be sure that someone hasn’t found out a result on the sly, I thought I’d introduce one in advance for you to all have your say on the upcoming CoC. I’ve come up with a format. Unless there is a huge mega hole that I haven’t noticed, I won’t be changing it for your “better” idea, just go with it or don’t.

Here’s how it will work:

We now know the structure for the upcoming CoC – you can plot it through from start to finish with your predictions, but can you get the results right in the process? And furthermore, can you hedge your bets?

For R1, you know who will play who. Simply predict who will win. Each correct answer scores 50 points. Each wrong answer scores 0. You must also predict a margin. The margin points are a bit more complicated, but go with me. If you are 10 points exactly out on the margin, that is exactly 0 points. For each point closer you the points added increases by 1. That’s terribly worded, so I’ll write it out manually. 9 points away = 1 point, 8 points away = 3 points, 7 points away = 6 points, 6 points away = 10 points, up to an exact prediction which earns 55 points – meaning you can score up to 105 points per game.

For being further out than 10, for every point further away between 11 and 40, you lose 1 point, meaning if you were 40 points out on the margin you lose 30 points. After that, each further point you are away, you lose 2 points.

If you predict the wrong winner you can still collect margin points, or more likely, you will still lose margin points. In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win. If you were to predict this for the wrong player, you would still get 55 margin points, cos it’d be a ballsy pick.

From R2 onwards, obviously we don’t the players who will be involved, but you must continue to make predictions based on the results you’ve predicted to date. For instance if you have backed Paul to beat me, and Stephen to beat Tom, you are now predicting Paul v Stephen.

If both players turn out to be involved in that game, perfect.

If only one player is involved in it, then the outcome will still be measured from the perspective of the prediction you made. For instance, if you predict Stephen will beat Paul by 20 points, but he ends up playing Tom – you are still predicting Tom to beat Paul by 20 points. Therefore you may wish to hedge your bets on outcomes where you’re unsure what will happen.

If you have no players involved in a game, your score for that game is automatically a flat -75

If you don’t understand the scoring system... you don’t massively need to – you can just send me your predictions including margins to me privately, and I’ll just work out your scores. Otherwise, you may wish to work out some convoluted tactic to optimise your chances of winning.

You have until the start of the 1st game of CoC FILMS (October 1st) to get your predictions in. Please don’t worry about telling me that you think Paul will beat me – I won’t take it personally! I will be taking part myself and will be sending my predictions to a player who has already made their own. For this reason, no alterations can be made to your predictions once you have sent them in. Be sure before you click send.

Results will be revealed on a day by day basis as they air. No pressure will be placed on anyone (barring me) through finding out what people think :)

Best of luck!
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:23 am

For those needing a reminder:

1. JONATHAN WYNN V PHIL DAVIES
2. ANN DIBBEN V JOHN COWEN
3. MATTHEW TASSIER V DOUGIE MACKAY
4. THOMAS CAREY V STEPHEN READ
5. PAUL ERDUNAST V ZARTE SIEMPRE
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK V MARTIN HURST
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS V ANDREW MACLEOD
8. PHILIP ASTON V NOEL MCILVENNY

9. WYNN/DAVIES V ASTON/MCILVENNY
10. DIBBEN/COWEN V HORROCKS/MACLEOD
11. TASSIER/MACKAY V CHAFER-COOK/HURST
12. CAREY/READ V ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE

13. WYNN/DAVIES/ASTON/MCILVENNY V CAREY/READ/ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE
14. DIBBEN/COWEN/HORROCKS/MACLEOD V TASSIER/MACKAY/CHAFER-COOK/HURST

15. WHOEVER'S LEFT
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

User avatar
Johnny Canuck
Kiloposter
Posts: 1217
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 10:44 pm
Location: Atlantic Canada
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Johnny Canuck » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm

I predict Wynn and Chafer-Cook will get through to the first and second semi-finals, prevailing by a lot of points each time. Then Stewart Holden and Craig Beevers will crash the party and battle it out in the final.

Also, are there two Moles?
"The use-mention distinction" is not "strictly enforced here".

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Kiloposter
Posts: 1152
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
go away xoxo

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:10 pm

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
I hate the pair of you...
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Tom S
Devotee
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:11 am

Hi Zarte,
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do I have to state a specific number for the margin, e.g. X beats Y by 9 pts, or can I give a region, e.g. X beats Y by between 5-10 pts?
Thanks.

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am

I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 9037
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am

Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?

That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.

*Well, maybe a little bit!

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:33 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?

That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.

*Well, maybe a little bit!
One person sent me a range. One person hasn't even sent me a margin at all... so in comparison, I'm viewing them a bit favourably.
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Tom S
Devotee
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:19 am

Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
Thanks-position clarified. Will internally think of a margin, and go for the average.

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1614
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:54 pm

I sent Zarte a list of my predicted winners and margins for each game. It was decided entirely by random dice rolls. My only goal is not to come last in the prediction game so that at least one person loses to random chance. But at least my entry complied with the rules.

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1614
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 9037
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.

Tom S
Devotee
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:42 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
Would it be rounded up to the nearest whole number?

Thomas Cappleman
Series 72 Champion
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:42 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Cappleman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:46 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am
Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am


People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.
49.875, by the triangle number formula applied in the general case.

Or Tom's suggestion of rounding the middle value off.

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:00 am

I've taken it as a round down, as logically it would stand to reason that people are more likely to want to hedge. So in a 5 to 10 - I'll take 7.
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:43 pm

Controversy in the Countdown studio as Mr Zarte Siempre deliberately lost his crucial conundrum today so as to gain a perfect score in his predictions competition...

I'll take a strictly mathematical approach to this, so my predictions won't be in for a while.
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm

Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?

(I scored 7 on the last numbers to tie at 68-68, and we missed two conundrums, both of which - both - were cut, giving the impression my GADWINNER solve was not a TB.)
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

Elliott Mellor
Devotee
Posts: 614
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1614
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm

Elliott Mellor wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.

Noel Mc
Acolyte
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:48 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Noel Mc » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:59 pm

Two options:

Go from TV, in which case it won't count as tie break.

Go from studio, then it does count as tie break.

I would be inclined to go from studio

Elliott Mellor
Devotee
Posts: 614
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:19 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.
It says it goes down as a 0 point margin, which seemed to answer the question to me. Maybe I've just misinterpreted the question.

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1614
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.

Elliott Mellor
Devotee
Posts: 614
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:31 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
I'd probably assume it's going to be what happens on TV - what the average viewer sees. I can't see this being a problem though since it's extremely unlikely to happen.

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:38 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
Whilst I was running analysises (analyses?) of the CoC contestants I came across a contestant whose TB con was included in their score. As you speculated at the time of my game (that spoilers thread is burnt into my brain!!) does that mean all TB cons are now “in”?

If yes, there may be - and probs are - other cases where the “normal” con has been cut and the first to have a winner is shown.

(I’ve also noticed the editor / continuity department dropped the ball when cutting my first game together since the positioning of my arms jump-cuts!!)

Ultimately, it’s up to Zarte. Hence the question.
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:37 am

Would be scored by studio result, but the chances of this occurring I would say are approximately 1000-1.

In fact if you wish to forfeit all predictions and have the possibility to be declared the winner should this one outcome take place, I would probably accept that.
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Owen Carroll
Devotee
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat May 26, 2018 1:10 am

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am

Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 9037
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:45 pm

Owen Carroll wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am
Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?
This isn't Only Connect.

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 am

Last day to get your predictions in!
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

Owen Carroll
Devotee
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat May 26, 2018 1:10 am

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:24 am

Just checking Zarte, you got my predictions right?

User avatar
L'oisleatch McGraw
Acolyte
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:46 am
Location: Waterford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:09 pm

My Predictions:-

1. JONATHAN WYNN beats PHIL DAVIES by 42pts.
2. JOHN COWEN beats ANN DIBBEN by 14pts
3. MATTHEW TASSIER beats DOUGIE MACKAY by 61pts
4. THOMAS CAREY beats STEPHEN READ by 7pts
5. PAUL ERDUNAST beats ZARTE SIEMPRE by 28pts
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MARTIN HURST by 10pts
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats ANDREW MACLEOD by 37pts
8. PHILIP ASTON beats NOEL MCILVENNY by 8pts

9. PHILIP ASTON beats JONATHAN WYNN by 18pts
10. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats JOHN COWEN by 12pts
11. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MATTHEW TASSIER by 24pts
12. PAUL ERDUNAST beats THOMAS CAREY by 0pts

13. PAUL ERDUNAST beats PHILIP ASTON by 3pts
14. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats TOM CHAFER-COOK by 7pts

15. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats PAUL ERDUNAST by 0pts

Whatever happens, good luck to everyone... hope ye all have a very enjoyable few days over there!
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm

callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
cheers maus

User avatar
Bradley Horrocks
Acolyte
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 1:53 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm

I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw :lol: A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes
"And PANTIES, thank you for that, that cheers us up enormously" - NH

User avatar
Bradley Horrocks
Acolyte
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 1:53 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:55 pm

Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm
callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
I was laughing at this far more than I should've done.
"And PANTIES, thank you for that, that cheers us up enormously" - NH

Owen Carroll
Devotee
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat May 26, 2018 1:10 am

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 pm

Well best of luck to you all tomorrow. I envy you allllllllllllllllllll

Owen Carroll
Devotee
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat May 26, 2018 1:10 am

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:10 pm

Also, I'll be filling out my application tomorrow

User avatar
L'oisleatch McGraw
Acolyte
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:46 am
Location: Waterford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:25 pm

Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm
I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw :lol: A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes
May as well have drama in a final! Let's make it one to remember. ;)
The way I see it, there are a fair number of players who could nick the title...
...and I have a feeling this one is not going to go with seeding. Just a hunch, we'll see how it goes.

Another prediction about this Champion of Champions...
...the long standing game high score record of 146 will finally be beaten.
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

User avatar
L'oisleatch McGraw
Acolyte
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:46 am
Location: Waterford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:14 pm

So far so good!
I wonder how long this lucky streak will last?
Games 4 and 5 are going to be intense...
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:37 pm

I’d have liked to have seen everyone’s individual predictions, a league table, you know, the whole shebang...
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:45 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:37 pm
I’d have liked to have seen everyone’s individual predictions, a league table, you know, the whole shebang...
All will be revealed at the end. For now: day to day predictions coming up
cheers maus

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:15 pm

DAY TO DAY PREDICTIONS

Only 17 players entered this, somewhat disappointingly (unless Zarte's forgotten anyone else, in which case let me know), which explains some of the nice looking percentages on the spoiler thread. But here we go. Starting off with Jonathan Wynn vs Paul Davies, by all means a fairly predictable contest. Jonathan won by 35, slightly up from the average guess of 31.53 and giving everyone positive points.

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Zarte Siempre	JW (35)		105	105
1	Tom S		JW (35)		105	105
3	Tim Down	JW (36)		95	95
4	Zubair Patel	JW (38)		78	78
4	Bradley Horrock	JW (38)		78	78
6	Gavin Chipper	JW (30)		65	65
6	Tom Cappleman	JW (30)		65	65
8	Eoin Jackson	JW (42)		56	56
9	Jen Steadman	JW (43)		53	53
10	Mark Murray	JW (25)		50	50
10	Owen Carroll	JW (45)		50	50
10	James Robinson	JW (25)		50	50
13	James Laverty	JW (17)		42	42
13	Rhys Benjamin	JW (17)		42	42
15	Toby McDonald	JW (15)		40	40
16	Thomas Carey	JW (60)		35	35
17	Graeme Cole	JW (5)		20	20

Bradley's name was messing up the formatting with its obscene length, so I've lopped off one of his Horrocks.
Next up, a more interesting game, results-wise...
Last edited by Thomas Carey on Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
cheers maus

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:42 pm

ANN VS COW MAN

Only 3 of you predicted the surprising upset here, John beating Ann by three despite the average prediction being 13.53 in Ann's favour, and were generously rewarded by the weird scoring system, Zubair in particular storming ahead here. Let's see how tomorrow's more regular Tassier action shapes things.

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Zubair Patel	JC (8)		65	143
2	Eoin Jackson	JC (14)		49	105
2	Tom S		AD (7)		0	105
4	Zarte Siempre	AD (8)		-1	104
5	Toby McDonald	JC (12)		51	91
6	Tim Down	AD (17)		-10	85
7	Bradley Horrock	AD (22)		-15	63
8	Tom Cappleman	AD (15)		-8	57
9	Gavin Chipper	AD (20)		-13	52
10	Rhys Benjamin	AD (7)		0	42
11	Jen Steadman	AD (21)		-14	39
12	Owen Carroll	AD (20)		-13	37
13	Mark Murray	AD (25)		-18	32
14	James Laverty	AD (22)		-15	27
15	James Robinson	AD (33)		-26	24
16	Thomas Carey	AD (22)		-15	20
17	Graeme Cole	AD (25)		-18	2
Last edited by Thomas Carey on Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
cheers maus

User avatar
Bradley Horrocks
Acolyte
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 1:53 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:49 pm

I'm happy to be a Horrock.
"And PANTIES, thank you for that, that cheers us up enormously" - NH

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:55 pm

TASS VS DOUGIE

Pretty standard guesses here. Tass of course won with a margin of 18, not far from the weirdly popular guess of 25 or the average of 26.76, although some of the further out guesses have caused some interesting results including Eoin being the first (and definitely not the last) to get the double point penalty thing. At the foot of the table, my stupidly high margin predictions (which sadly don't stop here...) make me currently be losing to Graeme's random chance. Fantastic.

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Zubair Patel	MT (11)		56	199
2	Tom S		MT (15)		78	183
3	Zarte Siempre	MT (30)		48	152
4	Tim Down	MT (23)		65	150
5	Toby McDonald	MT (27)		51	142
6	Bradley Horrock	MT (24)		60	123
7	James Laverty	MT (19)		95	122
8	Eoin Jackson	MT (61)		14	119
9	Tom Cappleman	MT (25)		56	113
10	Gavin Chipper	MT (25)		56	108
11	James Robinson	MT (22)		71	95
12	Owen Carroll	MT (25)		56	93
13	Rhys Benjamin	MT (2)		44	86
14	Jen Steadman	MT (33)		45	84
15	Mark Murray	MT (35)		43	75
16	Graeme Cole	MT (25)		56	58
17	Thomas Carey	MT (53)		25	45
Last edited by Thomas Carey on Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
cheers maus

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:36 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:38 am
Whilst I was running analysises (analyses?) of the CoC contestants I came across a contestant whose TB con was included in their score. As you speculated at the time of my game (that spoilers thread is burnt into my brain!!) does that mean all TB cons are now “in”?
Was I drunk when I wrote this?
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

Tom S
Devotee
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am

Hi Thomas,

I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.

No worries if not,
Tom

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:49 pm

Tom S wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am
Hi Thomas,

I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.

No worries if not,
Tom
Sure, on it
cheers maus

Tom S
Devotee
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:59 pm

Thomas Carey wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:49 pm
Tom S wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:49 am
Hi Thomas,

I know this is a bit of a stupid thing which I have only just realised- and no problems if not, but instead of "PM-ing" Zarte, I had sent him an email instead in a bit of a misunderstanding of my predictions, which may make things illegible for me to take part, which is fine if so, but I had sent the email back in August, so was wondering as to whether I could be included in the game. I have proof of the predictions on my general email system, so could use that as verification if I were to be included.

No worries if not,
Tom
Sure, on it
Cool, I will PM you my predictions. If you doubt the reliability then I am willing to send you the email I had off admin notifying me that I had sent the email. Cheers :)

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:45 pm

Now’s the time when I can go into crazy detail about my predictions:

I did predictions for Series 63 and 64 when I was a lot younger and these were more-or-less correct, so I’d use the same method, which I’m keeping semi-secret, for predicting the winner.

Predicting the margin was a lot harder. I therefore had to work out each contestant’s average pick and then assume that every numbers game would be solvable for the sake of doubt. This therefore gave me a figure for each contestant:

C1’s avg pick x 5 + C2’s avg pick x 5 + 50 = est max

In the case of J Wynn vs P Davies:

42.36 + 38.90 + 50 = 131.26

This then led me to “guess” what the margin would be and whether games would be high or low-scoring.

The drawback to this method is that it really understated some of the margins but given the scoring system I’d prefer understating than overstating.
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1614
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:23 am

Thomas Carey wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:55 pm
At the foot of the table, my stupidly high margin predictions (which sadly don't stop here...) make me currently be losing to Graeme's random chance. Fantastic.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:35 am

 SOME SHIT KID VS STEVIE READ

Not gonna lie, it felt good typing in the minus points for everyone who voted against me. Felt less good when I realised the person who thought I'd do best, and only one point off the actual result, was Graeme's randomiser, which shoots up to 7th place for its generosity. Average margin  was 2.76 in Stephen's favour, which makes sense when you consider how fucking close it was (definitely didn't feel like a 19 point win!)

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points		
1	Tom SSSSSSS	TC (5)		46	229	
2	Tim Down	TC (10)		51	201	
3	Zubair Patel	SR (6)		-15	184	
4	James Laverty	TC (5)		46	168	
5	Eoin Jackson	TC (7)		48	167	
6	Bradley Horrock	TC (1)		42	165	
7	Graeme Cole	TC (20)		95	153	
8	Zarte Siempre	SR (10)		-19	133	
9	Toby McDonald	SR (3)		-12	130	
10	Rhys Benjamin	TC (1)		42	128	
11	Thomas Carey	TC (16)		78	123	
12	Tom Cappleman	SR (0)		-9	104	
13	Gavin Chipper	SR (10)		-19	89	
14	Owen Carroll	SR (9)		-18	75	
15	Jen Steadman	SR (17)		-26	58	
16	Mark Murray	SR (15)		-24	51	
17	James Robinson	SR (42)		-72	23	
cheers maus

Zarte Siempre
Series 78 Champion
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:56 pm
Location: Dadford, Buckinghamshire

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:12 am

Thomas Carey wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:35 am
Not gonna lie, it felt good typing in the minus points for everyone who voted against me.
I just took the sports approach. I never put money on the team I'm rooting for, as disappointment doubles :P
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

User avatar
L'oisleatch McGraw
Acolyte
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:46 am
Location: Waterford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:55 pm

Thinking some more about the CoC and what might happen over the next few days...

...what was great about Dylan's win in the last one was how there was an element of redemption about his win after the unexpected defeat in S69's final.

With that in mind, I'd pick out these players as the most worthy winners of COCXV:-
1. T(h)OM(as) CAREY
2. PHILIP ASTON
3. MATTHEW TASSIER
4. BRADLEY HORROCKS

Thomas is clearly (no offence intended :lol: ) the Dylan Taylor of the tournament. A 900 club alumni and the #1 seed for his series who was toppled earlier than expected... one round earlier than Dylan in fact, which would make a Carey CoC win that bit more gratifying.

Philip had the misfortune to come up against a formidable opponent not once but twice... and even with that, he almost won his series. If they were to meet again in the semi-finals of this tournament, it'd have to be third time lucky in what might be Countdown's greatest grudge match of all time.

You could easily argue that there is no "hard luck" angle for either of Matthew or Bradley, but considering both players got within a crucial conundrum of winning a series, their lists of "if onlys" are sure to be more poignant than those of the remaining 12 competitors.

..................................

If it is not to be a redemption tale like COCXIV, the next best outcome, imo, would be a "shock and awe" campaign like the 30th Birthday Championships became. In that, Conor Travers cemented his name among the all-time greats of the game. An interesting stat is that there has NEVER been a max game in a COC to date. The 30th birthday event provided no less than FIVE, two of which came in consecutive games (and three of which came from Conor).

Given that he has the 2nd highest all-time Octototal, Zarte is the logical front runner to "pull a Conor", or to come in some way close to such an impossibly high standard. Though pretty much all of the players, on their day, have the potential to bring the wow factor. Who knows? Perhaps we'll get the redemption story and the shock and awe display all in one?!

All I know for sure is that Countdown has, once again, become the most essential viewing on TV!
Good luck to all the remaining players.
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

Zubair Patel
Rookie
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 12:52 pm

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zubair Patel » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:48 am

Thomas Carey wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:55 pm
TASS VS DOUGIE

Pretty standard guesses here. Tass of course won with a margin of 18, not far from the weirdly popular guess of 25 or the average of 26.76, although some of the further out guesses have caused some interesting results including Eoin being the first (and definitely not the last) to get the double point penalty thing. At the foot of the table, my stupidly high margin predictions (which sadly don't stop here...) make me currently be losing to Graeme's random chance. Fantastic.

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Zubair Patel	MT (11)		56	199
2	Tom S		MT (15)		78	183
3	Zarte Siempre	MT (30)		48	152
4	Tim Down	MT (23)		65	150
5	Toby McDonald	MT (27)		51	142
6	Bradley Horrock	MT (24)		60	123
7	James Laverty	MT (19)		95	122
8	Eoin Jackson	MT (61)		14	119
9	Tom Cappleman	MT (25)		56	113
10	Gavin Chipper	MT (25)		56	108
11	James Robinson	MT (22)		71	95
12	Owen Carroll	MT (25)		56	93
13	Rhys Benjamin	MT (2)		44	86
14	Jen Steadman	MT (33)		45	84
15	Mark Murray	MT (35)		43	75
16	Graeme Cole	MT (25)		56	58
17	Thomas Carey	MT (53)		25	45
Sorry, Tom! Same goes to the others I predicted against - lot of it might have been just trying to go against the tide. Nothing personal! (I don't think so anyway)

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:00 am

Sorry about the wait. Had all the data on my laptop, only put the ones I thought I needed on my phone and ended up extending a day trip into 5 days. From now on they'll all be posted on time. Anyway, without further ado, the big one.

SMALL PAUL VS OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH ZARTE SIEMPRE

As I said on the other thing, 53% of you predicted a win for Zarte, but the average margin was 2.82 in favour of Paul. Most guesses were of course very close cause this was literally a coin toss, and didn't lose too much if anything thanks to Z's 8 point win. Most of the larger margins were in Paul's favour and beaned a few people including Zarte himself. For the first time in a while it's fairly tight at the top, with random Graeme moving up to THIRD. Magic of the COC eh?

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Tim Down	ZS (5)		78	279
2	James Laverty	ZS (7)		95	263
3	Graeme Cole	ZS (5)		78	231
4	Tom Ssssss	PE (5)		-3	226
5	Rhys Benjamin	ZS (3)		65	193
6	Thomas Carey	ZS (3)		65	188
7	Zubair Patel	PE (17)		-15	169
8	Bradley Horrock	PE (5)		-3	162
9	Owen Carroll	ZS (10)		86	161
10	Tom Cappleman	ZS (0)		53	157
11	Eoin Jackson	PE (28)		-26	141
12	Toby McDonald	PE (1)		1	131
13	Jen Steadman	ZS (4)		71	129
13	Mark Murray	ZS (5)		78	129
15	Zarte Siempre	PE (13)		-11	122
16	Gavin Chipper	PE (1)		1	90
17	James Robinson	PE (20)		-18	5

cheers maus

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:26 am

THE LESS INTERESTING SERIES WINNER BATTLE

Tom won this by 40, way up from the average guess of just over 21. This is a nice cool multiple of 5, and people like to guess them for some reason which made data entry pretty neat. Most people actually lost margin points for not thinking he'd win by that much, but the round number also meant that Robbo and T-Cap join Zarte and Tom S in the exclusive group of people who have got a prediction dead on, although one of them stays in last place. A fairly predictable result meant only one 'person' took a hit, and unfortunately got proper slammed.

Also, fitting that Tom winning has clustered the Toms in this near the top \o/

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction		Points	Total Points	
1	Tim Down	TCC (22)		42	321
2	James Laverty	TCC (12)		32	295
3	Thomas Carey	TCC (41)		95	283
4	Tom Ssssss	TCC (20)		40	266
5	Tom Cappleman	TCC (40)		105	262
6	Rhys Benjamin	TCC (11)		31	224
7	Owen Carroll	TCC (30)		50	211
8	Zubair Patel	TCC (19)		39	208
9	Bradley Horrock	TCC (22)		42	204
10	Mark Murray	TCC (45)		65	194
11	Jen Steadman	TCC (23)		43	172
12	Graeme Cole	MH (15)			-60	171
12	Eoin Jackson	TCC (10)		30	171
14	Toby McDonald	TCC (12)		32	163
15	Zarte Siempre	TCC (11)		31	153
16	Gavin Chipper	TCC (15)		35	125
17	James Robinson	TCC (40)		105	110
cheers maus

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:33 am

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH [...] BRADLEY HORROCKS vs andrew macleod

78 points. 78 fucking points. What the hell was I thinking. You let me down here, Bradley. Imagine getting negative points with a correct winner. Absolute shambles. Smh. Actual result was 24, very close to the average of just over 26, which would probably be even closer if it wasn't for that big old 78. Seventy eight.

Funnily enough the person with the best guess was someone with a very similar name to the winner, it's Bradley Horrock.


Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Tim Down	BH (19)		65	386
2	James Laverty	BH (16)		53	348
3	Tom Ssssss	BH (30)		60	326
4	Tom Cappleman	BH (40)		44	306
5	Zubair Patel	BH (26)		86	294
6	Mark Murray	BH (25)		95	289
7	Thomas Carey	BH (78)		-8	275
7	Bradley Horrock	BH (20)		71	275
9	Owen Carroll	BH (30)		60	271
10	Rhys Benjamin	BH (4)		40	264
11	Toby McDonald	BH (30)		60	223
12	Eoin Jackson	BH (37)		47	218
13	Jen Steadman	BH (39)		45	217
14	Zarte Siempre	BH (40)		44	197
15	Gavin Chipper	BH (10)		46	171
16	Graeme Cole	AM (5)		-19	152
17	James Robinson	BH (5)		41	151
cheers maus

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Kiloposter
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:51 am

who lives in a pineapple under the sea? PHILIP ASTON vs true English patriot NOEL MCILVENNY

As we saw, Philip won by 14, just 0.71 above the average margin. Most of the rest is the same as the last couple - me guessing a stupidly high margin, Graeme going dreadfully wrong, etc. Jen gets the 5th bang-on prediction of the lot, while Tim goes further ahead. After the first round of games me, Lav, Rhys, Eoin and Tim have called 7/8 of the games, and nobody's done all 8.

Code: Select all

Position	Name	Prediction	Points	Total Points	
1	Tim Down	PA (23)		51	437
2	James Laverty	PA (24)		50	398
3	Tom Ssssss	PA (20)		60	386
4	Tom Cappleman	PA (10)		71	377
5	Bradley Horrock	PA (15)		95	370
6	Zubair Patel	PA (18)		71	365
7	Rhys Benjamin	PA (11)		78	342
8	Mark Murray	PA (5)		51	340
9	Jen Steadman	PA (14)		105	322
10	Owen Carroll	PA (30)		44	315
11	Thomas Carey	PA (38)		36	311
12	Toby McDonald	PA (16)		86	309
13	Zarte Siempre	PA (12)		86	283
14	Eoin Jackson	PA (8)		60	278
15	Gavin Chipper	PA (15)		95	266
16	James Robinson	PA (8)		60	211
17	Graeme Cole	NM (45)		-68	84

cheers maus

User avatar
L'oisleatch McGraw
Acolyte
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:46 am
Location: Waterford
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:09 am

Thomas Carey wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:51 am
me, Lav, Rhys, Eoin and Tim have called 7/8 of the games
Margins are a bitch. :?

So, what happens with the wrong predictions in the next round?
Does Zarte now automatically take Paul's place in my remaining predictions, or is there an ongoing penalty for getting the first result wrong?
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

User avatar
Rhys Benjamin
Kiloposter
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: Down in the tube station at midnight
Contact:

Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:32 am

It’s in the OP.

I just wish I hadn’t understated the margins... maybe I should use a different margin method next time.

The Appropriate Result Statistics Equation (ARSE) is still working, despite one wrong result so far... I’m quitely confident because it will just take one game where I get the winner against the rest of ya and then I’m laughing.
The forum's resident JAILBAKER, who has SPONDERED several times...

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests